Context and Scenarios after the Referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: Iraq; Kurds; independence; Middle East
Regardless of whether the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence takes place as planned on 25 September, its result is known: most Iraqi Kurds will vote in favour of independence. Depending on how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) uses the result, a negative scenario—the outbreak of violence and further disintegration of Iraq—is still more probable than a positive one that would lead to incremental, peaceful negotiations with the central authorities in Baghdad on greater Kurdish independence. The pressure from regional allies of the Kurds, the U.S., EU, and the UN, seems to be intense enough to stop the Iraqi Kurds from unilaterally declaring independence even if they go ahead with the referendum.
The Zapad 2017 Russian military exercises were just one element of an extensive plan to checking its armed forces’ combat readiness. At the same time, the exercises were used to test the experience gained by the Russian army in combat operations in Ukraine and Syria, and to practise full-scale conventional conflict. The manoeuvres proved that, according to the strategic documents of Russia and Belarus (including the Treaty on the Union State of Russia and Belarus), the Belarusian army would, in the event of war, become a de facto part of the Russian military.
Czech-Slovak Relations in Light of the Debate on the Future of European Integration
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czech Republic; Slovakia; Central Europe; Visegrad Group
The prospect of deepening European integration by further institutionalisation of the eurozone has so far not weakened the relationship between Slovakia, which has already adopted the euro, and the Czech Republic, which is not planning to do so in the near future. Moreover, Czech and Slovakian willingness to distance themselves from Poland and Hungary, both in conflict with EU institutions, has increased cooperation between Prague and Bratislava and their partners from outside the region, for example within the framework of till recently passive Slavkov Triangle (S3). The development of Czech-Slovak activities in the field of European policy thus evidences an increasingly pronounced division within the Visegrad Group.
The FDP as a Partner in the German Coalition Government: European Policy Perspective
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; political parties
There is a good chance that the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) will win seats in the Bundestag during Germany’s September general election. European policy issues, including reform of EU institutions, deepening of integration, a multi-speed Europe, and the continuation of a restrictive financial approach in the eurozone, are an important part of the party’s agenda. If the FDP creates a coalition government with the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), these ideas could provoke some tension in Germany’s relations with its EU partners.
Role of “Panda Diplomacy” in China’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; diplomacy
China’s “panda diplomacy”—loaning the animals to other countries—has become one of its key instruments to enhance its image. Chairman Xi Jinping eagerly uses the practice to alleviate tensions in bilateral ties and reduce partners’ concerns about his country’s activities. What is more, China utilises this instrument both to signal dissatisfaction with other countries’ policies and to highlight the importance of a given country to Chinese diplomacy, as well as to acquire capital and know-how through joint panda research.
Prospects of an Agreement between China and the Holy See
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; religion
China has signalled its readiness to normalise relations with the Holy See. That would mean both the underground and formal state-controlled Catholic factions in China would come together. For China, it would facilitate the Chinese church’s support for the country’s social policies, create a unified, visible church organisation, and papal recognition of bishop nominations. Normalisation, though, would also require the Holy See to withdraw its recognition of Taiwan as a separate state. The improvement of relations between the two may also benefit Polish-Chinese contacts, in which the position of Catholics in China has been a controversial topic.
Turkey’s Purchase of the S-400 System: Prospects and Consequences
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; armament; Security
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claims that Turkey has signed an agreement with Russia on the purchase of the S-400 air and missile defence system. Currently, this statement should be regarded as an element of pressure on the NATO Allies, especially on the United States. However, in the light of tensions between Turkey and its Western partners, completion of the S-400 transaction cannot be ruled out. Finalisation of the contract would bring Turkey and Russia closer, and raise questions about Turkey’s role as a loyal Ally in NATO.
Israel and the Gulf States—the Nature of Secret Cooperation
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; Saudi Arabia; Middle East; Palestinian-Israeli conflict; Persian Gulf
Israel has for many years maintained undisclosed contacts with the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf, despite the lack of official diplomatic relations. The foundation of the cooperation, especially with Saudi Arabia, is the fear of Iran’s growing dominance in the Middle East. Despite the convergence of interests, normalisation of relations remains unlikely and is highly dependent on the resolution of the Palestinian question.
Łódź, EXPO 2022 Candidate: Opportunities for Poland and Central Europe
Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; Poland
Łódź is a candidate to host Specialised EXPO 2022. It proposes the flagship event “City Re: Invented,” a newly created city. The theme of change of a post-industrial centre refers to the successful transformation of Poland and other countries of Central Europe. The exhibition provides the host country an opportunity to present itself as an innovative state that uses new technologies to manage development. The final selection of the EXPO host city will be made in November. Łódź’s campaign and its international support efforts are entering the final, most intensive phase.
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; North Korea Crisis
North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests destabilise the situation in the Asia-Pacific region and indirectly jeopardise the security of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Russia uses the tensions between the U.S. and North Korea to strengthen its international standing and further its rapprochement with China. Russia supports the Chinese proposals for a peaceful settlement of the situation with North Korea because it fears strengthening the U.S. military presence in the region.
The Importance of the UK’s Withdrawal Bill in the Brexit Negotiations with the EU
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK withdrawl bill; Brexit; EU; European Union
European Union (Withdrawal) Bill 2017–2018 is the highest-level UK government document concerning the legal and administrative dimension of Brexit. The legal importance of the bill is grounded in its designed influence on the UK legal system. Its political importance stems from the UK’s demonstrated readiness to leave the EU without a deal and from the polarisation of the country’s politics on the issue. In the background of the legislative works are UK government efforts to persuade its EU partners to open talks on the future model of the EU-UK relationship.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: UN Peacekeeping Mission; Donbas
During the September United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), Russia and Ukraine each presented proposals for the deployment of a peacekeeping mission to Donbas. However, the differences between the two countries reduce the probability of reaching agreement on that issue. From Ukraine’s perspective, the mission should be deployed in all territory controlled by Russia and its goal should be the demilitarisation of Donbas. Russia, in proposing to send a peacekeeping mission to eastern Ukraine, hopes to return to the discussion of a new security architecture in Europe.
Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Trump; Trade Policy; USA
The Trump administration’s trade policy is mostly bluster. The declarations of withdrawal from international agreements or threats to introduce protectionist measures are meant to serve the U.S. president to achieve economic and political benefits. However, these threats are voiced too often, have become unreliable, and have had only limited effect. While America’s partners need to be prepared in case Trump’s declarations are enacted, the stability of the U.S. economy, the strength of its alliances, and pressure from business and politicians—including Republicans—reduce the likelihood they will be pursued.
ASEAN’s 50th Anniversary: An Opportunity for a New Opening in Economic Relations with Poland
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: ASEAN; Southeast Asia; Economic Community
This year, ASEAN celebrates its 50th anniversary. Established in 1967, the organisation has contributed to sustaining peace in Southeast Asia and to the rapid economic development of the region in recent decades. It is perceived as one of the most successful integration projects in Asia. Despite its rising economic position, ASEAN’s economic relations with Poland are unsatisfactory and do not tap the potential. Among the ways to improve the situation are to take advantage of progressive integration within the ASEAN Economic Community and to intensify efforts to promote Poland in the region.
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Euro; Hungary
Hungary does not have a clearly defined position on the adoption of the euro. While the central bank opposes the quick introduction of the single currency, the government shows it is open to it, leaving room for manoeuvre in case of political consolidation of the eurozone. Such a scenario would probably induce the government to decide on euro adoption despite doubts about its economic benefits.
Natural Gas for the Transport Sector: Gazprom’s New Market
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: natural gas; Gazprom; transport sector
In the coming years, the popularity of natural gas as a road and maritime transport fuel is expected to grow. Gazprom recognises this trend and is investing not only in huge projects like Nord Stream 2 but also in small-scale LNG terminals (ssLNG), which allow smaller gas deliveries to consumers. Gazprom’s strategy to secure a stake in this market as a competitive supplier. Russia’s activity in this area will pose a challenge to Polish ports and could complicate Poland’s plans to more broadly use natural gas in its domestic transport sector.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; EU; European Union
Delivering his State of the European Union speech, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker asked Romania, which will hold the presidency of the Council of the EU in 2019, to organise an extraordinary EU summit in Sibiu—the first one after the UK’s withdrawal if it proceeds according to schedule. He also appealed to the Member States for accept Romania in the Schengen area immediately. Increasingly, EU partners are seeking Romanian support at a time of debate on the Union’s future. Romania has avoided confrontation with the EU institutions and the bloc’s largest Member States, and has declared its intentions to join a mainstream of closer integration, while Poland—the regional point of reference in the Polish neighbourhood until recently—is not active on this issue.
The Change of Government in the Czech Republic and the Implications on Its Foreign Policy
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czech Republic; foreign policy; change of government
The Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), under the leadership of Andrei Babiš, won the election to the Czech Chamber of Deputies. The party’s relative lack of ideology and its position regarding the mood of Czech society and the situation in the EU makes it a flexible partner in a coalition government. However, allegations that Babiš defrauded the EU of subsidies have discouraged other parties from cooperating with him. Profound changes on the Czech political scene will not have a major effect on Prague’s foreign policy, but will have implications for European and regional policy.
President Macron’s EU Reform Proposals: An Offer Addressed to Germany
Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English
Keywords: Macron; EU reform proposal; Germany; Merkel; EU
French President Emmanuel Macron continues to communicate his vision of EU reforms. His recent speech at the Paris Sorbonne was addressed mainly to Germany, where post-election coalition talks have been taking place between the CDU/CSU, the FDP, and the Green parties. Macron, seeking to convince Berlin to join Paris in initiating changes in European integration, put forward politically attractive proposals to potential coalition partners. Yet some issues, such as the draft of a common eurozone budget, are controversial and seem to be unacceptable for the liberals.
Two Years of Russian Military Operations in Syria: Results and Prospects
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Military Operations in Syria
On 30 September 2015, Russia began its military operations in Syria. Thanks to Moscow’s support, Syrian government forces now have control of almost 50% of the state’s territory, compared to 20% before the Russian intervention. Russia’s military engagement was used to strengthen its own position in the Middle East and to test equipment, command systems, and its armed forces in combat conditions.
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