Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English
Keywords: Baltic states; Russia
How Russia has defined its strategic interests threatens Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. It excels in the use of a range of instruments to put pressure on the Baltic States and interfere in their internal affairs. Russia is also ready to take risky action, thus complicating NATO defence planning, which must be based on a wide spectrum of threats on the Eastern Flank. However, three general scenarios can be distinguished that should point the way for the Allies, especially in strengthening the non-military elements of their security system.
Russia-Saudi Arabia Cooperation: Potential and Limitations
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Saudi Arabia
Arabia and Russia promote contrary approaches to resolving the conflict in Syria as well as differ in their perceptions of Iran’s role in the Middle East. This splits in interest limit cooperation in the armaments sector. The new sphere of Russian-Saudi cooperation is energy, especially in the oil market. Russia seeks to use Saudi Arabia as an instrument to undermine U.S. influence in the Middle East.
China’s Plans to Strengthen Relations with Germany
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP); Germany
China endeavours to strengthen its relations with Germany by taking advantage of the strain in transatlantic relations. In China’s view, Germany would be the PRC’s main partner in the promotion of free trade, climate protection, and a multipolar world order. To foster the relationship, China is willing to minimize disputes with Germany and improve ties, such as by speeding up certification of German political foundations. Strengthening of China–Germany relations requires increased access to the Chinese market for German companies, which is only possible in a longer perspective. Poland may see some benefit from increased exports to Germany and indirectly to China.
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Palestine; political crisis
The conflict between the main Palestinian parties, Fatah and Hamas, is growing. The Fatah-led Palestinian Authority is seeking to weaken Hamas by exploiting the deteriorating situation in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Deepening the conflict could lead Hamas to break the ceasefire with Israel or force a concession to Fatah, which may result in an agreement between the two parties. Continuation of the conflict will have a significant impact on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Three Seas Initiative: Benefits for Regional Gas Markets and the EU
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: energetics; gas; Austria; Bulgaria; Central Europe; Croatia; Czech Republic; energy security; Estonia; Hungary; Latvia; Lithuania; Poland; Romania; Slovakia; Slovenia
Central and Eastern European countries have distinct potential for investment in gas infrastructure to meet expected growth in demand. The “Three Seas” initiative will help coordinate policy among its participants and promote the interests of the region to strengthen energy security and develop a competitive gas market. Not only will Three Seas countries benefit from this but also the EU as a whole.
Romania-U.S. Relations at the Beginning of Trump’s Presidency
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; Donald Trump; USA
On 9 June, President of Romania Klaus Iohannis, the first leader from a NATO Eastern Flank state, paid a visit to U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington. Trump acknowledged Romania’s contribution to common security, describing it as in model form, and ensured that the U.S. would respect NATO Article 5 guarantees. The U.S. president’s confirmation of existing commitments does not mean any privileged status for Romania, which, because of Trump’s transactional treatment of international relations so far, was expected by some Romanian political elites.
Growing Rivalry in Asia: India Steps Away from China’s Silk Road Project
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; India
One significant delegation missing from the Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing in May was India. Although India’s boycott of the summit stems from bilateral problems in its cooperation with China, some of its reservations are shared in Europe. India’s stance will not stop the Chinese grand project, but points to a growing rivalry between the Asian powers. The European Union and its Member States should continue to support connections between Asia and Europe but also pressure on parties to ensure infrastructure investments meet the highest international standards.
China’s Perspective on Its Strategic Partnership with Russia
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Russia
China has used the deterioration of Russia’s relations with the EU and U.S. to strengthen its position within a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation. The PRC’s goals are to counterbalance the U.S., secure its own economic interests in the post-Soviet area, increase border security and obtain Russian support for Chinese international initiatives. In exchange, China supports Russia by abstaining from open criticism on its annexation of Crimea and by importing raw materials. The partnership brings more benefits to China, which is positive for the EU. The PRC, unlike Russia, is concerned about destabilisation of NATO’s Eastern Flank and favours European integration.
The Local Government Dimension of Relations between Poland and Latin America
Author(s): Adriana Skorupska,Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: local government; Poland; Latin America
Poland’s interest in Latin America has been increasing in recent years, mainly in economic terms. Yet local government remains an underestimated tool in advancing these relations. Greater activity by Polish local authorities could help in developing business and academic ties with the region, and allow the exchange of experience in fields such as urban development and revitalisation. Geographical distance, lack of knowledge and financial constraints are the main reasons for Polish local authorities’ low interest in Latin America so far.
Renewing historically close relations with Sub-Saharan Africa is one of Israel’s most important foreign policy aims. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government aspires for lasting change in these countries’ stance on Israel on the international stage. This aim is supported by Israel’s offer of innovation, security, and development aid. However, the intensification of sectoral cooperation has not automatically translated into policy changes among the Sub-Saharan countries.
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: British Party System; Brexit
During their annual conventions in September and October, British parties presented updated visions of the country’s EU exit. The Conservatives and Labour eventually took clear “hard” and “soft” Brexit positions, respectively. These decisions result from the division in British society and are intended to reinforce the dominance of both parties against the others. This party competition, however, hardens the position of the British government in negotiations with the EU. It also increases the likelihood of Prime Minister Theresa May being replaced by a Conservative Eurosceptic in case of a crisis in the UK-EU talks.
The Schengen Area and the Eurozone in Bulgaria’s European Policy
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bulgaria; eurozone; Schengen Area
The European Commission on 15 November presented a report on the progress made by Bulgaria under the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM). If successfully concluded, the instrument is perceived in the EU as an unofficial condition for a country to join the Schengen Area. The risk of advanced institutionalisation in a multi-speed EU has prompted Bulgaria to intensify its efforts to join the eurozone’s exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), a phase preceding full euro membership. Although Bulgarian authorities put priority on both goals, the perspective of achieving them is uncertain.
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israeli-Egyptian Relations
Since 2014, Egyptian-Israeli relations have improved significantly. The regional interests of both governments are compatible in fighting terrorism, the Muslim Brotherhood and its associates, and Iranian influence. The cooperation is mutually beneficial: Egypt raises its position in relations with the U.S. and the EU, while Israel ensures the continuation of Egypt’s favourable foreign policy. The Israeli-Egyptian rapprochement is also part of a consolidation of the anti-Iran bloc that includes Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Further improvement in bilateral relations is inhibited by the negative attitude of Egyptian society towards Israel.
The International Aspects of Vladimir Putin’s Re-election Campaign
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; elections; mass media; Vladimir Putin
In December, the campaign for president of Russia will officially begin in anticipation of the vote in March 2018. Vladimir Putin and his allies will use the tensions in Russia’s relations with the U.S. and the EU to build a climate of danger and to convince voters about the potential of interference in Russia’s electoral process. This will be Putin’s response to the concerns of Russians who see him as the guarantor of the security and international standing of the state.
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; North Korea Crisis
The deepening crisis on the Korean Peninsula raises concerns in China. The PRC does not want the North Korean regime to collapse or the Korean states to re-unify, but fears an escalation or outbreak of a heated conflict. However, China’s authorities have not changed policy towards North Korea, but have sharpened their rhetoric. Only when the North’s actions really threaten Chinese provinces or seriously undermine Xi Jinping’s position as leader will more decisive steps be probable.
U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan and South Asia: Pakistan’s Key Role
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: U.S. Strategy; Afghanistan; South Asia
The new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia is based in large part on the continuation of policy towards the region. The most important differences under President Donald Trump are the lack of a military operation end date and criticism of cooperation with Pakistan. The key to success of the strategy is to cut off the Taliban from support on the Pakistan side of the border. Therefore, in addition to stronger international pressure on Pakistan, it is necessary to cooperate on some of that country’s strategic interests, including regulation of the border with Afghanistan.
Prospects of North Korean Naval Nuclear Deterrent Forces
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; armament; nuclear weapons; Security
North Korea’s ballistic missile and thermonuclear tests of 2017 are not the only ones on a list of potential threats. It is also mastering technologies necessary for nuclear deterrent forces based in part on submarines. This new qualitative threat requires closer cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in missile defence and anti-submarine warfare.
The 16+1 Initiative and Challenges for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Central Europe;Eastern Europe;
It has been five years since the establishment of cooperation in the 16+1 format between China and Central and Eastern European countries. The initiative still serves as a tool to support Chinese interests in bilateral relations with separate CEE countries, rather than as a forum to accomplish common goals and projects. This was confirmed by the sixth 16+1 summit, held in Budapest on 27 November, which was dominated (like previous meetings) by competition between the “16” for Chinese investments and funds. There is little to suggest that this situation will change before the next summit, to be held in Bulgaria in 2018. For Poland, the 16+1 initiative could become a useful instrument for cooperation. However, this will only happen if China offers real reciprocity in terms of economic relations.
Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; local government
Established in 2006, a legal instrument called European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC) was intended to serve the objectives of EU cohesion policy and the Europe 2020 strategy. However, in Poland this instrument has been used at a small scale. The four EGTCs established on the Polish borders focus on projects that can be carried out through other forms of cooperation. Among the challenges that EGTCs should encompass are management of the environment or transport projects.
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; Asia
The importance of Israel’s cooperation with Asian states has increased systematically. The pivot from the West to Asia is focused on growing the economy but in the longer term might also bring political benefits to Israel. It attributes great importance to its relations with China, which could lead to disputes with the U.S., especially in the sensitive sphere of technological cooperation. The changes in Israel’s policy in this area may prove beneficial to the European Union.
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