Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; AKP - Justice and Development Party; presidential elections; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
The Turkish parliament has adopted a constitutional reform package that introduces a presidential system. The amendments not only impair parliament’s role but also weaken the judiciary’s independence. To enter into force, the reform package must be approved by referendum, set for 16 April. The referendum campaign will intensify tensions in Turkey and the changes could lead to a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations.
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: trade; USA; Canada; economy; Free Trade Agreement; Mexico; North America
In the U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump criticised NAFTA, calling it the “worst trade deal” the U.S. has ever signed. He decried the agreement as contributing to the high U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and loss of jobs to that country. In the first days of his presidency, Trump said his administration would renegotiate NAFTA to make it more beneficial to the U.S. Talks on this issue could take a while. Moreover, if the partners remain inflexible in their demands, withdrawal from NAFTA cannot be excluded. Its renegotiation may also have a negative impact on the world economy, partly by increasing uncertainty and limiting investment in NAFTA member states.
Consequences of the Deterioration of the Situation in Donbas*
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; conflict; Eastern Europe; Russia
The recent exacerbation of hostilities in Ukraine’s Donbas is a reaction by Russia-backed irregular forces to actions taken by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF), who since December 2016 have been gradually restoring control over territory along the Minsk-agreed separation line. Russia accuses Ukraine of breaching the Minsk agreement and blames the Ukrainian authorities for the outbreak of fighting. The argument will be used by Russia to lift sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU. However, the Ukrainian authorities claim that the UAF’s actions have not violated the Minsk agreement since it provides for the territory in question to be under Ukraine’s control.
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: economy; Finances; Poland
Financial support from public funds is aimed at increasing the competitiveness of exporters and investors. Financing the activity of businesses abroad is a tool for a country in its rivalry on international markets. To increase the chances of Polish companies to win foreign contracts, the state system of support for such businesses should include higher spending, improvement of existing instruments and broadening of their scope, and increased recognition among entrepreneurs.
Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump
Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: climate; USA; Donald Trump; energy and climate
During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced a break with the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which in his view adversely affects business in the United States. Among his stated aims were taking the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, cutting off financing for climate protection in developing countries, and repealing federal regulations aimed at reducing emissions and the use of fossil fuels. The limitation of actions related to climate protection in the U.S. seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the global consequences will depend on the specific decisions of the new administration.
Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Common European Asylum System (CEAS); Europe; European Union; Migrations; refugees
Supporters and opponents of the automatic redistribution of asylum-seekers have been unable to find compromise on changes to the Common European Asylum System for several months. Many Member States are against transferring the competences they hold on migration to the EU level. Thus, it’s worth working toward a solution that would enable relocation while maintaining Member State control over the influx of refugees to their territory.
Martin Schulz Stands as SPD’s Candidate for Chancellor: Implications for Germany, the EU and Polish-German Relations
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; Martin Schulz; Europe; political parties
On 29 January, Martin Schulz became chairman of the Social Democrats (SPD) and its candidate for chancellor of Germany. Schulz will strengthen the leadership of the party and his nomination makes the election campaign more exciting. The moderate growth of SPD in the elections may determine the continuation of the grand coalition and the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, a better result for SPD may open the way to other coalitions and put Schulz in the chancellor’s office, which would entail a change in European politics in Germany. A change in the government and political scene in Germany would be a big challenge for Polish-German relations.
German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election
Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: cybersecurity; Germany; cyberspace; elections; parliamentary elections; USA
The 2016 U.S. presidential election showed that the fight for voters on social media may have resulted in the spread of false information, propaganda and disinformation. In Germany’s upcoming election campaign, a similar scenario may unfold. To prevent it, the German government intends to take preventive measures, but against new forms of online threats they may prove insufficient.
Conflicts in post-Soviet areas involving de facto states have remained unresolved since the ceasefires in the early 1990s. By heating up periodically, these conflicts threaten broader regional security, and by remaining unresolved, limit their chances for political association and economic integration with the EU, undermining the Union’s Eastern Partnership. In recent years, the EU’s tensions with Russia, the ever-growing dependence of most post-Soviet de facto states on Russia, the recent re-escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, and recently emerged, protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine have made the situation more complicated and urgent. Since the EU’s current approach towards these “frozen conflicts” has so far shown little result, the EU and the V4 should take a more active role in resolving these conflicts and might want to consider stepping up engagement with the post-Soviet de facto states. Increasing the interaction and extending its scope while at the same time reassuring the parent states that this will not constitute “de facto recognition” would de-isolate the populations of these territories, reduce their dependence on Russia and provide incentives for conflict resolution.
№160: Xi Transforms the PLA: How the Military Is Being Adapted to China’s Changing Global Position
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; armed forces; Security; Xi Jinping
Reform of the Chinese armed forces gained new momentum under Xi Jinping in 2015. The main argument behind the strategy, structure, and equipment modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the active defence of China’s global interests to strengthen its competitiveness with the United States. A short-term goal is to make the PLA operationally capable of projecting China’s power abroad constantly, using joint exercises, peacekeeping missions, and the development of military infrastructure. One recent example was opening of China’s first foreign military base in Djibouti. The PLA should also be capable of defending China’s territory and overseas interests by performing combat operations abroad. This means a possible change to the non-intervention clause that has until now been a crucial element of China’s foreign policy.
Keywords: gas; economy; energetics; Europe; European Commission; Gazprom; Germany
In December 2016, companies of the PGNiG Group took successful legal action to suspend the implementation of a European Commission decision on the rules relating to the operation of the OPAL gas pipeline, changed by the German regulator for the benefit of Gazprom. Nevertheless, Gazprom has increased the use of the pipeline to full capacity. While its behaviour cannot be considered incompatible with EU and German law, the actions of German authorities violate the EU principle of sincere cooperation. Poland should urge the European Commission to ensure that, pending the delivery of the final judgment, the new rules on the operation of the OPAL gas pipeline are not applied.
Reports published by American intelligence confirm Russian special services’ interference in the 2016 presidential campaign. Russia used cyberoperations, media and other material to discredit Hillary Clinton to decrease her chances of success in the election and improve Donald Trump’s prospects. Russia’s ambitious operation will have profound consequences for the new U.S. administration and its foreign policy, and for American intelligence agencies. Appointments in the Trump administration are coinciding with ongoing investigations into some of the new president’s advisors’ ties to Russia, and with two U.S. Senate panel inquiries on American intelligence failures and mistakes in cyberdefence.
Foreign Policy under the Trump Administration: Starting Point
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: Donald Trump; USA; foreign policy
The Trump administration’s shaping of foreign policy will be affected by the likelihood of a divergence of views within the administration, the conflict-prone temperaments of the president’s closest advisors, lack of full support from Republicans in Congress and the significant informal impact of the Trump family on the president. These could result in conflict in three areas: disputes within the administration, between formal and informal advisors to the president, and between the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government.
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; USA; Security
The British government will try to deepen the country’s cooperation with the U.S. in the area of security and defence to offset the negative political and economic effects of Brexit. However, Britain will face the risk of a further decline of its military potential and serious differences with the administration of Donald Trump on major foreign policy issues, including NATO and Russia. In effect, the UK might be forced to focus on strengthening European security at the cost of supporting the U.S. in other regions.
The Importance of Donald Trump’s Electoral Success for Marine Le Pen’s Presidential Campaign
Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; Marine Le Pen; Donald Trump; presidential elections; USA
Donald Trump’s victory increases Marine Le Pen's chances in the presidential election in France, because it legitimises her thesis about major upcoming global political changes. It also strengthens her argument about the importance of the role of national identity and the necessity of regaining national control over the economy and society. However, during the campaign her party the National Front will not play up ideological similarities between Le Pen and Trump, because it could mobilise her opponents and turn anti-American resentment, still strong in French society, against her.
The Chinese Perspective on Relations with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Administration
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Donald Trump; Taiwan; economy; Security; USA
China’s assessment of the result of the U.S. election and prospects for relations with the U.S., have evolved from cautious optimism to concerns about a possible new chapter of the U.S. pivot to Asia policy, in which China might be cast in the role as main adversary. Apart from economic and security matters, Taiwan is becoming an important contentious issue. This is vindicated by statements by Donald Trump and Peter Navarro, chief of the National Trade Council, in which they undermine “One China” principle. Therefore, the rising tensions in bilateral relations, including risks of incidents in the Asia-Pacific region and a trade war, are probable.
Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: corruption; Ukraine; Eastern Europe; society
Under pressure from civil society and international institutions, the Ukrainian authorities have taken steps to reduce corruption. Although these measures have brought initial positive results, corruption remains one of the biggest problems facing the country as any changes meet with resistance from part of the Ukrainian political elite afraid of revealing their illegal activities and reducing future profits.
Implications of the Election of a New President of the European Parliament
Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Parliament; EU institutions; Europe; European Union
In the absence of compromise between the two largest political groups of the European Parliament, the result of the election of its new president, to be held on January 17, is difficult to predict. Victory for the European People’s Party’s candidate would mark the end of the current balance of power as representatives of EPP would lead the three most important EU institutions: the European Council, the Parliament and the Commission. Only the position of high representative for foreign affairs and security policy would remain staffed by a candidate of the Progressive Alliance of European Socialists and Democrats. The choice of the new head of the EP does not automatically imply a new president of the European Council. Yet it can have consequences for the political situation in Italy, and thus for the future of the eurozone.
The Russian Federation’s New Foreign Policy Concept
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; foreign policy; security
On 30 November 2016, President Vladimir Putin signed a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept. In the document, Russia states its aspirations to pursue an active policy in the field of international security (especially in the Middle East). One of its instruments will be seeking opportunities for cooperation with the administration of the new president of the United States. Relations with the EU will be reduced to economic cooperation, while more focus will be placed on developing political and economic relations with Asian countries.
Probable U.S. Policy Directions under President Trump
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Donald Trump; USA; elections; presidential elections
Donald Trump has been elected as the 45th president of the United States. He ran against the fallout from the economic crisis and for reducing U.S. involvement in solving global problems. One can expect that President Trump’s general policy will concern selective and conditional U.S. engagement abroad and abandonment of the notion of free trade. Trump’s campaign suggests a transactional approach towards foreign policy.
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