Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marc McQuay,Roderick Parkes / Language(s): English
Keywords: Energy union; energy security; European Union; Poland; energy policy;
In launching the idea of an “Energy Union,” Warsaw managed to leave its mark on the European Commission’s May 2014 Communication on Energy Security. Compared to 2006, when Warsaw advocated a similar package of measures, this breakthrough is a mark of Poland’s growing influence in the EU and a sign of its capacity to navigate the increasingly complex decision-making processes in Brussels. Yet, there is still a long way to go if it wants to ensure these ideas are acted upon. In this context, it may actually be a useful exercise to reduce the process of selling the Energy Union to the basics and work out how various aspects of the Polish proposal could be promoted by different political channels.
The revolution that rocked Ukraine and removed President Yanukovych from power at the beginning of 2014 has raised the question of whether similar revolutionary moods are present in Russia and Belarus. The likelihood of civil disobedience in these countries is related to the similarities and differences between their societies, the presence or not of motivations comparable to those that led Ukrainians to protest on Maidan Square in Kyiv, the perception or not of real potential alternatives to presidents Putin and Lukashenka, as well as their economic prospects. Ultimately, it seems, all these factors indicate revolution is not to be expected in Moscow or Minsk anytime soon.
Terrorism has never disappeared from NATO’s list of security concerns. Nonetheless, its stature visibly diminished in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden and the notional end of the so called Global War on Terror. In early 2014, however, the Alliance is faced with a different type of terrorism that seems to have morphed into an element of a traditional, territorial threat as it emanates from two entities situated on NATO’s eastern border: the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in the South-East, which launches terrorist operatives into Turkey, and the Russian Federation, which utilised asymmetric means to annex Crimea and now stands accused of exporting terrorism to Ukraine. NATO’s Eastern members are now concerned with the threat that Russia may use similar means, including terrorism, in order to foment instability on their territories, and the Alliance should now enhance its capabilities in helping them respond to it.
№42: Sixty Years of Poland–India Relations: Towards a Genuine Partnership?
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; India; 60th anniversary of Polish-Indian relations; international relations; diplomacy;
Relations between Poland and India are 60 years old, and have been traditionally described as “close and cordial.” Their history can be broadly divided into two periods—one between 1954 and 1989, and the second after 1989. Whereas the first is sometimes regarded as a golden age in Polish–Indian ties, the latter is seen more as a time of mutual disengagement and negligence. However, during the last a few years, we have observed the beginning of a third era, with renewed efforts to revive stronger cooperation. Trade is again on a clear upward trend, and high-level meetings take place more often. In fact, for the first time, both countries are fully independent and strong enough to create a robust and genuine partnership.
№41: Understanding EU Action during “Euromaidan:” Lessons for the Next Phase
Author(s): Roderick Parkes,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; Euromaidan; EU Member States; Ukraine; political pressure;
During Euromaidan, a lack of cohesion between Member States left the EU pursuing a basic “tipping point” approach: rather than offering Ukraine a large-scale transformation package, the EU tried to apply targeted pressure on the players involved (Moscow, Washington, Ukraine’s politicians and society), and to tip each onto a positive course. The approach was weak, and only last-minute political intervention from a trio of Member States prevented Ukraine’s wholesale descent into chaos and violent repression. Analysis of the political dynamics behind this fragmented response should, however, allow the EU to take a more coherent position, on Ukraine and in the wider region, in the future. Poland is well-placed to lead that approach.
If the seriousness of a given “emerging security threat” is measured by the number of recent analyses devoted to it or the proliferation of experts studying it, then cyberthreats must now surpass the dangers of offline terrorism and energy security. While all issues “cyber” attract a high level of policymaker attention, another threat seems to have been forgotten and marginalised: cyberterrorism. To an extent, the evolution of cyberterrorism mirrors that of “regular” terrorism, which erupted as the “weapon of the weak,” and after a state-sponsored phase seems to be returning to its sub-state or even “lone wolf” roots. Cyberthreats, on the other hand, originally of a sub-state nature, are now mostly in the domain of state entities that have not yet made the decision to launch state-sponsored cyberterrorism.
№39: Solutions to Public Debt Crises in the EU: Seek Returns on That Investment (Views from Slovakia)
Author(s): Peter Goliaš,Eugen Jurzyca / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; public debt crisis; financial assistance; Eurozone; financial stability mechanisms; economic recovery;
The purpose of providing financial assistance to indebted eurozone countries is to avoid uncontrolled bankruptcies that could lead to a breakdown of the euro area with severe negative consequences for all members of the EU. There is a high probability that the loans provided via the stability mechanisms will not be fully recovered. Nevertheless, the long-term benefits of those loans are expected to exceed the costs. Therefore, this form of financial assistance should be regarded as an investment that has its own rate of return, one that can be controlled for by insistence on adherence to certain rules of behaviour and diligent oversight.
№38: Europe and Its Institutions: Towards a Renewed Polish Approach to the EU
Author(s): Agata Gostyńska,Roderick Parkes / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; EU institutions; Poland; inter-governmental EU; supranational institutions;
Poland seems on the cusp of winning for itself the status of a leading EU Member State. Over the course of the sovereign-debt crisis, it has successfully held its own in an increasingly intergovernmental EU. That now creates a temptation to ditch its traditional “hedging” approach to the European Commission and Parliament and strike out more on its own. Yet, Poland’s real success in this intergovernmental EU has been in securing the continued openness of EU rules and the integrity of its institutions. Since Poland is still at risk of being sidelined by exclusive forms of intergovernmental cooperation, it needs to find ways to renew the protective influence of the bloc’s supranational institutions rather than to abandon them.
№37: Return to the Future: France’s New Flirtation with Afro-Realism
Author(s): Nathan Dufour / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; Africa; France’s role in Sub-Saharan region; security and defence policy;
France’s latest bout of interventionism in Africa in 2013 (Mali, Central African Republic) has led to harsh internal public scrutiny of Françafrique and its strategic rationale. France’s continued economic and security role in Sub-Saharan areas is out of step with its limited ability to sustain a standalone approach. To answer this shortfall, France appears more than ever committed to a multilateralisation of its actions, not least through a Europeanisation and Africanisation of its historical responsibilities in Africa. Its approach is likely to strengthen Africa’s status as a focus of European Security and Defence Policy and may push Poland to initiate a strategic reflection of its own interests in that part of the world.
№36: Trade Agreements across the Atlantic: What Lessons from CETA for TTIP?
Author(s): Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Trade and investment agreements; European Union; Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA); Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP); trans-Atlantic cooperation;
Negotiations are ongoing for two of the most significant trade and investment agreements that the European Union has ever entered into. Both the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the U.S. are set to be ambitious agreements, and are already causing controversy beyond the limits of the negotiating table. Given that the CETA talks are more advanced, they can provide some valuable and much-needed insight for TTIP, both in terms of process and substance. Nevertheless there are some issues, linked to the heftier geopolitical weight of TTIP, that CETA cannot help resolve.
Even though Poland and Chile have not been priority partners for each other in the past, a recent investment by Polish mining company KGHM in Chile could be a game-changer. Cooperation on copper production may form the grounds for the further development of economic and scientific ties, and for stimulating people-to-people contacts.
№34: Rethinking Conventional Arms Control in Europe: A Transparency-Centred Approach
Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; conventional arms control; arms control system; maintaining trust in Europe; transparency;
Conventional arms control in Europe is not functioning as it should, which has led to a lower level of military predictability and confidence on the continent. There is a need for new thinking on how to restore a functional conventional arms control mechanism and update it to the current realities. It is worth thorough consideration whether the modern conventional arms control system can be based solely on transparency measures without any numerical, qualitative or geographical limitations. Such a transparency-centred approach may offer a promising path forward to building an enduring platform that would maintain trust in Europe.
№11: A Broker, not a Banker: How the EU Can Help the Middle East Peace Process
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; Middle East; peace process; diplomacy; international relations;
The peace process in the Middle East is about to collapse. When at the beginning of 2009 it seemed that the major force – the United States – was coming back into play, expectations rose. However, 11 months into Barack Obama’s presidency there is little, if any, hope left that the strategy of the new American administration can wield any positive results. This diplomatic standstill is detrimental to the international community’s interests because it serves extremists and, if sustained, could soon lead to an escalation of tensions. The US, weakened by the economic crisis and intensely engaged in Afghanistan, would benefit from renewed involvement by the European Union. The way forward in the Middle East peace process is to bring additional mediators onto the field to act in concert with the US. There are no guarantees of success, but so far the EU’s potential to impact the Middle Eastern situation has never been seriously tested.
№10: New Strategy for Afghanistan? Political Reform – First!
Author(s): Piotr Krawczyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; new strategy; political reform; manipulated presidential elections; security; dysfunctional political system; political stability;
The manipulated presidential election of August 2009 has provided new rationale for increasingly negative assessments of the situation in Afghanistan. The Afghans’ growing mistrust of the authorities and the administration looms, alongside the insurgents’ activities, as the country’s gravest problem. The sources of the state’s illness include not only the dismal economy and a lack of security, but a dysfunctional political system divorced from the country’s social realities. The system breeds corruption and conflicts and obstructs the discharge of the state’s fundamental functions. It follows that much of Afghanistan’s instability has internal political roots which, unless removed, will render enduring improvement of the country’s situation impossible.
№9: New Lisbon Strategy after 2010: Governance Reform
Author(s): Marcin Koczor / Language(s): English
Keywords: New Lisbon Strategy; year 2010; series of changes and reforms; governance;
The year 2010 will mark the end of a 10-year implementation period of the Lisbon Strategy (LS), which in the meantime has undergone a series of changes, both in terms of its scope and its implementation structure. The LS’s original version was flawed due to a plethora of largely incoherent goals, an unclear division of responsibilities among the various entities involved, and an inefficient implementation structure. All these factors affected the Lisbon Agenda’s poor results after its initial five years, which led to its re-launch in 2005.
№8: South Caucasus – the Case for Joint Commitment of Turkey and the EU
Author(s): Adam Szymański / Language(s): English
Keywords: South Caucasus; Turkey; European Union; regional security; geopolitics; international relations;
Turkey, despite many constraints, is attempting to play a more active role in the South Caucasus. Hence, it has become an important partner for the European Union, whose interest in the region has been growing over time. While a number of problems remain, Turkey and the EU can work together towards reaching the shared goal of creating an area of security in the South Caucasus, an outcome instrumental to the development of economic projects (with a special emphasis on energy issues).
№7: Reduce US Nukes in Europe to Zero, and Keep NATO Strong (and Nuclear). A View from Poland
Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English
Keywords: Nuclear weapons; NATO; European Union; Poland; military transformation; air forces;
The nuclear dimension of NATO is rarely front page news, and this is no less the case in Poland than it is in other member states. While prominent as the central subject of a number of heated intra-Alliance debates during the Cold War, in recent years the question of nuclear weapons has disappeared from the NATO agenda, dominated as it is by issues of enlargement, military transformation, and the Alliance’s increasing involvement in out-of-area operations. In fact, an overwhelming majority of the citizenry of all NATO countries would be surprised to learn of the existence of any nuclear element in the Alliance, including the citizens of those European allies whose air forces have been training to drop US-made thermonuclear gravity bombs in wartime.
№6: NATO after the Georgian Conflict: A New Course or Business as Usual?
Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; Georgia; European Union; Russian-Georgian conflict; geopolitics; NATO membership;
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, unlike the European Union, could not have played a mediating role in the Russian-Georgian conflict. This was primarily dictated by the position of Russia, which was opposed to NATO involvement in the region and which saw NATO as a de facto party to the conflict. Georgia, on the other hand, has long expected an unequivocal decision by the Alliance concerning its Atlantic aspirations and membership, not to mention NATO’s immediate support for its position in the conflict. This placed NATO in an exceptionally delicate situation as a mediator, especially if one considers the Alliance’s present members’ diverging views on the question of Georgia’s NATO membership and their doubts and differing assessments of the causes of the conflict and where to lay the blame for its outbreak.
Following more than a year of behind-the-scenes contacts, on May 21, both Syria and Israel as well as their facilitator Turkey made an identically worded announcement of the resumption of indirect talks between the conflicted parties. Syria, a key actor in major regional conflicts, and Israel, the greatest military power in the Middle East, did not suddenly decide to make peace. Having calculated all pros and cons, they came to the conclusion that indirect talks are what would best serve each of their interests, both internally and internationally. It was pragmatism and cold calculation, as usual. The same guiding principle applies to the continuation and results of the talks. Ultimately, Syria will be interested in sustaining this process as long as there are prospects for American involvement, whereas Israel will seek a more cooperative Syrian role in the region. It remains to be seen whether each party’s decision is of a strategic or a tactical character, but it nevertheless marks a conspicuous change in each country’s foreign policy. For the most part these changes are driven by the new dynamics in the Middle East: a reshuffling of alliances, a relocation of focal points and a change of tactics. The indirect talks require the EU’s participation in order to keep the momentum going until the new American administration decides on the merits of its direct engagement in brokering peace.
Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Army; European Union; European integration; military policy; European security; international relations;
The current difficulties in the European Union, caused by the result of the Irish referendum, show that bold projects regarding European integration can be misunderstood and cause serious concerns. One of such initiatives is the idea of a European Army, which is likely to trigger equally ardent discussions. Hence, we propose to look at the issue from a different perspective. The idea of a European Army dates back to the beginning of the European integration process of the 1950s. Even though the Pleven plan collapsed, other projects, aiming to create joint European military capabilities, were later discussed regularly (e.g. attempts to reactivate the Western European Union in the 1980s). Today, almost a decade since the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) was launched, the discussion on the EU’s military capabilities is more dynamic than ever before. The reason is simple: the actual shape of the ESDP does not live up to the growing demand for a more active European Union made by many EU member states as well as by other significant actors in international relations.
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