Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; Northern Syria; military operations; safe zone; refugee crisis;
Turkey has launched a military operation codenamed Peace Spring to establish a “safe zone” in northern Syria. It did so without the approval of the UN Security Council (UNSC), which will hold an emergency meeting to discuss it on 10 October. The increase in refugee flows through the Turkish-Greek border in recent months suggests that Turkey will be pressuring the EU to support the project.
Slovakia’s Pursuit of Better Relations with Russia
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Slovakia; Russian Federation; Slovak government; improving relations with Russia; EU policy towards Russia;
The Slovak government, contrary to the position of President Zuzana Čaputova, continues its policy of detente in relations with Russia. The first visit of Slovak Prime Minister Petr Pellegrini to Moscow and St. Petersburg in June and the expression of readiness to obtain gas from Nord Stream 2, whose creation the Slovak government has opposed so far, demonstrate this. For the Visegrad Group, Slovakia’s stance means a deepening split in the perception of Russia, and for Poland, a more evident need to seek allies outside of the V4 to oppose a change of EU policy towards Russia.
Keywords: Egypt; demographic policy; population growth; inefficient economy; water and food resources; Egyptian government;
The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.
Ruling party Likud remains the front-runner in the 17 September elections. However, its leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has less chance to form a government than after the last vote in April. Polls show both the current right-wing coalition and the opposition dead even. If none of the blocs obtains a coalition majority, the establishment of a national unity government by the largest parties might be a way out of the political deadlock.
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Italy; political crisis; Italian politics; government; early elections; coalition;
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on 20 August. The government of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League collapsed because of Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s preference for early elections. His party, the League, leads in polls; however, the fears of a League government, seen as potentially deepening the conflict with the European Commission (EC) and weakening the economy, spurred the creation of a coalition between M5S and the Democratic Party (PD). The new government will stop confronting EU institutions and openly criticizing the EU sanctions against Russia.
The Republic of Ireland and the Risk of ‘No-Deal’ Brexit
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: Republic of Ireland; Brexit; European Union; United Kingdom; no-deal Brexit; withdrawal agreement;
Since the signing of the agreement with the EU on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the Union, the Republic of Ireland’s policy towards Brexit has been seeking to defend the “backstop” mechanism. Despite Boris Johnson’s government toughening the UK’s position regarding this mechanism, the Republic of Ireland refuses to make concessions in this respect for reasons of domestic politics, hoping for the eventual ratification by the UK of the withdrawal agreement. The Irish policy is also based on the assumption of EU financial solidarity, which is not yet reflected, however, in the EU’s multiannual financial framework (MFF).
Prospects for Differentiated Integration in EU Asylum Policy
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; asylum policy; migrants rescued from the Mediterranean; assistance to refugees; Schengen area;
Faced with talks on the reform of the Dublin system, defining the Member States’ responsibility for examining asylum applications, Germany and France have proposed the creation of a solidarity mechanism in which a coalition of volunteers is to participate. This kind of cooperation regarding the relocation of migrants rescued from the Mediterranean is an opportunity to provide effective assistance to refugees and to resolve disputes between Member States. However, differentiated integration in the area of migration creates the risk of progressive fragmentation of the Schengen area.
U.S. Development of Intermediate-Range Missiles after Its Withdrawal from the INF Treaty
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; military policy; INF Treaty; missiles development; high-range ground-launched missiles; NATO;
After its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the U.S. is planning to introduce new ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km. Already in the final part of President Donald Trump’s first term, the administration might start talks with Asian and European allies on stationing these missiles. The development of the majority of these systems will take at least a few years and has already resulted in controversy in the U.S. Congress and within NATO. Russia will seek to prevent their deployment, especially in Europe, while also presenting the U.S. actions as a pretext for the further expansion of the Russian missile arsenal.
The German Economy in Downturn: Effect on Poland and the EU
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; German economy; global economic growth; economic crisis; trade conflicts; recession; impact on Polish economy;
The recent economic slump in Germany is mainly caused by weaker global growth and uncertainty from trade conflicts. Among the potential countermeasures, a large fiscal package is being discussed that is expected to strengthen domestic demand. How Germany responds to the threat of recession will be important for Poland and its economy due to strong trade links with its western neighbour.
The Role of Unidas Podemos in the Formation of the Next Spanish Government
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Spain; Spanish government; left-wing Unidas Podemos; separatist parties; Spain’s relations with EU and NATO;
On 23 and 25 of July, the Spanish parliament failed to pass a vote of confidence in the Pedro Sánchez minority Socialist government. The main reason was the lack of support from left-wing Unidas Podemos (UP) and regional parties. A crucial agreement with UP is still possible. No deal will lead to political instability and collaboration between UP and separatist parties. However, UP is against euro-atlantic cooperation. For this reason, its participation in the government may make Spain’s relations with the EU and NATO more difficult.
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; defence policy; security; overseas interests; peaceful global order; NATO;
In July, China published its first defence policy white paper since 2015. The document is a response to similar documents by the U.S. and its growing engagement in Asia and confrontational policy towards China. Compared to the previous white paper, which introduced a new definition of security and the “active defence” of overseas interests, the new text focuses on a peaceful global order actively shaped by China and intended to contrast with its perspective of U.S. activities. However, the new focus does not mean China will not defend its “core interests”, which might be a challenge for NATO.
Author(s): Łukasz Janulewicz,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; Three Seas Initiative; cooperation with Central Europe; economic cooperation; foreign policy;
This year, Germany participated for the second time in a Three Seas Initiative (TSI) summit as an observer. Its participation is motivated by the desire to strengthen cooperation with Central European countries and reduce divisions in the EU. It also aims to limit U.S. economic ambitions in the region, with TSI a potential key vehicle for them. Germany’s efforts to gain membership should be seen as a foreign policy goal. Its success could contribute to influencing infrastructure priorities in Central Europe, if implemented under the TSI.
China’s Economy Amid the Trade Dispute with the U.S.
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; United States; China’s economy; US trade dispute; economic reforms; economic growth;
The trade dispute with the U.S., which has been going on for over a year, as well as global and internal factors are contributing to a slowdown in China’s economy, in part by reducing export profits. To counter this situation, the Chinese authorities introduced a stimulus package and halt some economic reforms. Although China’s economy is overall stable, the protracted dispute with the U.S. may exacerbate negative internal processes and further slow growth. This will affect the global economy, which in turn could lead to a decline in exports for companies from the EU. At the same time, China may be willing to widen its market to some investors.
Ethiopia: Ethnic Tensions Threaten State Stability
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ethiopia; ethnic tensions; state stability; political assassinations; ethnic federalism; ethnic nationalism; democratization;
A series of political assassinations in June in Ethiopia exacerbated ethnic tensions in a country organised under a model of ethnic federalism. The growth of ethnic nationalism has become a major challenge for reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Continuation of the current trend risks halting the democratisation of the public sphere, economic integration of the Horn of Africa, and a failure of EU policies towards the region.
Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have been increasing in recent months. This is a consequence of the overlapping of historical disputes with new conditions in the form of increased regional competition and enhanced involvement of outside powers. The escalation of the crisis may weaken European plans to diversify energy resources from the south, make it more difficult to solve migration problems, and destabilise the EU's neighbourhood.
The Significance of Josep Borrell’s Election as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
Author(s): Marta Makowska,Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Josep Borrell; EU High Representative; foreign policy; security policy; European diplomacy;
On 2 July, the European Council (EC) nominated the Spanish socialist Josep Borrell for the position of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR). If he takes office, he will continue the agenda of his predecessor Federica Mogherini. Nonetheless, he will focus more on cooperation with the Maghreb and Latin America countries, and will be more open to restrictive policy towards Russia. However, the most important challenges will be to improve the efficiency of European diplomacy and HR’s cooperation with Member States.
Settlement Annexation on the West Bank: Legal and Political Context
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: Settlement Annexation on the West Bank: Legal and Political Context
Jewish settlements; West Bank; Israeli-Palestinian conflict; annexation of West Bank; international law; EU-Israeli relations;
The issue of Jewish settlements in the West Bank remains one of the key elements of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The political situation in Israel and favourable attitude of the U.S. administration increase the likelihood that Israel might annex settlements. Illegal under international law, this action would have a destructive effect on the peace process and would force a revision of EU-Israel relations.
Space in the Trump Administration’s Security Policy
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Trump administration; security policy; military policy; armed forces; space policy;
The U.S. will create a new branch of the armed forces to conduct operations in space. This is a response to the increased threat from China and Russia, which are rapidly developing space systems for military use. As a result of the U.S. actions, NATO adopted its first space policy. The effects of this policy also oblige allies who do not have space capabilities and who will have to work out their own policy towards this domain.
In July, the main Romanian political parties nominated candidates for the November presidential election but the leaders of the ruling coalition have not agreed on a common candidate. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) nominated Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă, the successor of convicted chairman Liviu Dragnea, but the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) chose Speaker of the Senate Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu. This reduces the ruling coalition’s chance of defeating President Klaus Iohannis. His re-election would likely result in the continuation of Romania’s foreign policy, with the alliance with Poland an important element of it.
Countering Russian Disinformation in the European Union
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; disinformation campaigns against EU; traditional media; internet; social media; public awareness;
Russia runs disinformation campaigns against the EU using traditional media and the internet, including social media. Yet, the effectiveness of the fight against Russian disinformation by the Union and its Member States has so far been limited. These activities require strengthening at the international and national levels, as well as increasing public awareness of the use of media.
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