U.S.–Iran Tensions: Implications for the EU and NATO States
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Iran; European Union; NATO; US-Iranian relations; tensions; nuclear agreement; conflict;
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are rising due to the American government’s “maximum pressure” policy and actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). After Iran’s ultimatum of May 2019 to the other signatories of the nuclear agreement went unheeded, the country suspended compliance with some of the deal’s provisions. The steps it took are not likely significant enough to result in U.S. preventive strikes on Iran, but there is the growing likelihood that both sides will continue to act just below the threshold of open conventional conflict. The frequency of tension-increasing events may continue to rise to the end of President Trump’s current term, implying a number of challenges to the diplomacy of the EU and NATO states.
“Reasonable Europe”: Czech Presidency of the Visegrad Group
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Visegrad Group V4; Czech presidency of the Visegrad Group V4; European Union; regional cooperation;
On 1 July, the Czech Republic took over the rotating annual chairmanship of the Visegrad Group (V4). Like the Slovaks before them, the Czechs will emphasize EU themes in Visegrad cooperation. The Czech position, however, is more restrained towards European integration. The dispute between the European Commission (EC) and the government of Andrej Babiš regarding the spending of EU funds may have a negative impact on the position of the V4 states in the negotiations on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The Czech presidency is a good opportunity for Poland to develop regional cooperation in the field of security or transport.
Ukraine’s Political Parties Ahead of Parliamentary Elections
Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; parliamentary elections; political parties; ruling coalition;
Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory in April’s presidential election has become a catalyst for rapid change in Ukrainian politics. After the upcoming parliamentary elections, the political scene will be dominated by Servant of the People, the newly created party composed of Zelensky associates, and it may even win an absolute majority in the Verkhovna Rada. Meanwhile, most of the parties that formed the ruling coalition after Euromaidan will find themselves outside parliament.
Greece’s centre-right New Democracy (ND) party took power after the parliamentary elections on 7 July. It advocates a change of economic strategy based on cutting taxes and eliminating red tape. The main challenge will be to persuade the European Commission (EC) and eurozone members that its approach will not endanger the Greek public debt-reduction programme. The new government will also need the EU’s support in the country’s conflict with Turkey over the extraction of hydrocarbons off the coast of Cyprus.
Finland’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Finland; European Union; presidency of the Council of the EU; centre-left government; security policy;
From 1 July, Finland holds the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU. The new centre-left government has made sustainable development the leitmotif of its activities, protecting the EU’s common values and climate, strengthening the EU Single Market, and closer cooperation in security policy. The presidency will emphasize the rule of law in the Council’s work. The remaining elements of the programme are part of the new EU strategic agenda for 2019–2024 and set the direction for its development.
Russia’s Policy on OPEC: Potential and Limitations of Cooperation
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); increasing oil prices; US oil export; energy policy;
The cooperation between Russia and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is aimed at increasing oil prices. Russia, however, also has other goals: getting new investments and contracts from Saudi Arabia for Russian companies. This tactic appears to be working out for now, but keeping oil prices higher for the long run could be difficult because of growing U.S. oil exports and opposition from Russian companies to curb production, among other reasons.
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Central Bank (ECB); Christine Lagarde; president of ECB; monetary policy;
With Christine Lagarde set to become its next president, the European Central Bank (ECB) gets a leader with indisputable international authority and political experience, but rather distant from the hermetic group of experts on monetary policy. This will increase the likelihood that the expansive monetary policy initiated by Mario Draghi will continue: a perspective that will be beneficial mainly for France and the countries of Southern Europe.
The Significance of International Organisations in China’s Policy
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; international organizations; economic growth; foreign policy;
China treats its involvement in international organisations as pragmatic support for its economic growth and foreign policy, as well as a tool for the modification of the world order. It has increased its financial input and activity in the UN and other such forums and tries to revive less-visible institutions or initiate new ones. China also effectively promotes its own candidates to leadership positions in international organisations. The current U.S. approach to multilateral diplomacy has helped China promote its initiatives. The Union should be judicious in its support of these initiatives, analysing each with a view to maintaining EU standards.
The Gas Directive Amendment and Nord Stream 2: Legal and Political Consequences
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: Nord Stream 2; European Union; EU gas directive; Russia’s political goals; gas supply;
The amended EU gas directive (GD) might impede the use of Nord Stream 2 in Gazprom’s monopolistic practices and for Russia’s political goals; however, the interpretation and implementation of the directive still remain crucial parts of the puzzle. This creates a challenge for Poland to ensure that Germany, the country responsible for overseeing Nord Stream 2 in the EU, abides by the directive’s provisions.
Chechnya’s Significance to Russia’s Internal and Foreign Policy
Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Chechnya; Russian Federation; North Caucasus region; Chechen-Russian relations; Vladimir Putin;
The actions of the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, towards the neighbouring republics of the Russian Federation have increased tensions in the North Caucasus region. The Russian authorities tolerate Kadyrov’s policy because of the significance of Chechnya to Russian politics in the Middle East and the fight against terrorism. Kadyrov remains loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the most important guarantor of the Chechen leader’s position. However, in the long run, once Putin leaves office, the Chechen Republic may attempt to gain independence.
The Crisis in the Government Coalition in Italy after the European Elections
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Italy; government coalition; government crisis; European elections; conflict within the coalition;
The Italian political spectrum has been destabilised by the European election results. The huge win for the League and the poor result of the Five Star Movement (M5S) has led to conflict within the coalition. The League’s leader, Matteo Salvini, is trying to impose his party’s programme on the government. However, its proposals run counter to the European Commission’s (EC) expectations. The EC has warned Italy it may enact the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) to hold the country’s budget in line. Salvini’s hardline position, though, increases the risk of a government collapse and early parliamentary elections.
Russia presents its Burevestnik cruise missile with nuclear propulsion as a new type of strategic weapon that should change the strategic balance with the U.S. and open new areas of arms control and arms-reduction negotiations. However, a series of failed tests has resulted in the perception of the missile as an element of Russian propaganda. Nevertheless, the continued development of this missile might prompt stronger NATO nuclear deterrence and missile defence against all types of Russian cruise missiles.
Indonesia’s Policy Course after the Presidential Election
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Indonesia; presidential elections; foreign policy; government; Indonesia’s relations with China and the US;
The presidential election in Indonesia in April was won by Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) who has held the office of president since 2014. In his new term, he will continue to focus on domestic affairs, mainly infrastructure. In foreign policy, he will try to maintain balance in Indonesia’s relations with China and the U.S. The growing influence of Muslim conservatives, as evidenced by the appointment of the cleric Ma'ruf Amin as vice-president, may translate into the greater involvement of Indonesia in the protection of Muslim rights and support for the Palestinians.
Author(s): Marta Makowska,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; climate policy; long-term climate strategy; clean energy; low- or zero-emission economy;
The EU is preparing a long-term climate strategy for 2050 with a view to a comprehensive transition to a low- or zero-emission economy. Although EU countries are divided about the scale and pace of the actions, the direction is inevitable. This creates opportunities for Poland to obtain additional funds for a “just transition” and benefit from a boost in the domestic clean energy technologies market.
Moldova’s Two-Government Crisis: Resolution and Mid-Term Prospects
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; two government crisis; coalition; socialists; democrats;
From 8 to 14 June, there were two competing centres of power in Moldova. The Party of Socialists and the ACUM bloc, with the support of the EU, the U.S., and Russia, formed a coalition and the Maia Sandu cabinet. But the present Pavel Filip government of the Democratic Party resisted resigning for nearly one week. The oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, who stands behind the Filip government, accuses the coalition of a coup d'état. The Constitutional Court controlled by him suspended President Igor Dodon, who supported the coalition, and delegated his power to Filip. However, the oligarch’s party was unable to retain power. The downfall of Plahotniuc may be the most profitable for Russia because it will consolidate its control over the Socialists and will present itself to the EU and the U.S. as a constructive partner to resolve the crisis in this post-Soviet area.
The Turkey-U.S. Dispute over Use of Russian S-400 System
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; United States; Russian S-400 system; Turkey-US dispute; military industry;
At the end of May, Turkish soldiers began training on the S-400 defence system, purchased by Turkey from Russia. This was followed by a negative reaction from the U.S., which implemented countermeasures. The U.S. is urging Turkey to withdraw from the transaction, signalling that it will lead to a negative re-evaluation of bilateral relations. The problems in relations with Turkey may induce the U.S. to deepen its alliance with Greece and could lead to tensions within the transatlantic community, as well as weaken Turkey’s involvement in NATO.
The third meeting of the Preparatory Committee of the 2020 NPT Review Conference finished on 10 May in New York. It confirmed there are substantial divisions between the participating states that may lead to the failure of the 2020 meeting. The weakening of the NPT regime would have negative consequences for Poland and the EU. Poland should step up efforts to identify compromise solutions, which may require taking more into consideration the position of states advocating further progress towards nuclear disarmament.
The Effects of the Tensions Inside the Communist Party on China’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of Cina; foreign policy; Communist Party; centralization of power; international relations;
There is growing dissatisfaction with Chairman Xi Jinping in China. Members of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) charge that his centralisation of power has harmed the economy and deteriorated China’s position in relations with the U.S. In response, Xi has increased control over the party, dismissed his opponents, and is trying to gain success in foreign policy by negotiating firmly with the U.S. and underlining the positive outcomes of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi’s political position is untouchable but a third term as China’s chairman may be questioned. China’s policy towards the U.S. will also have implications for its relations with Poland.
Prospects for Breaking the Deadlock in the North Korea-U.S. Dialogue
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; United States; denuclerization; lifting sanctions; escalation of tensions; North Korea-US relations;
The outcome of the North Korea–U.S. summit in Hanoi in February demonstrated that their stances regarding denuclearisation and the lifting of sanctions are incompatible. The continuing deadlock weakens South Korea’s role as a mediator in the North Korea-U.S. dialogue and threatens to stiffen the North’s negotiating position while strengthening its ties with China and Russia. There is an opportunity for the North Korea-U.S. talks to move away from the goal of complete denuclearisation and prevent the possible escalation of tensions.
The Democratic Party Ahead of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: An Early Review
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Democratic Party; United States; US presidential elections; Trump’s presidency; Democrats; election campaign;
Next year’s Democratic Party primaries will be unprecedented, not only because of the number of candidates likely competing for the nomination but mainly because of the profound changes taking place within the party. Moreover, the good economic situation during Trump’s presidency will make it difficult for Democrats to compete with him in this area. Instead, other domestic topics and foreign policy issues will be important in the campaign debates.
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