The Crisis in Germany’s SPD and the Party’s Prospects
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; Social Democratic Party; Bavarian elections; European Parliamentary elections;
The results of last year’s elections in Bavaria and Hesse showed that the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) continued to fall in polls. Surveys conducted ahead of the elections to the European Parliament and landtags indicate a further weakening of its position. The grouping faces a lengthy process of rebuilding support which, requires programme changes. The SPD’s future course could prove negative for Poland, as Warsaw and the party have different visions of the EU and relations with Russia.
The Lithuanian Model in the Fight against Disinformation
Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English
Keywords: Lithuania; fighting against disinformation; cyberattacks; fake news; manipulating public opinion; Russian disinformation campaigns;
To counter Russian disinformation and cyberattacks, Lithuania has adapted its administrative structures and modified national legislation. At the same time, it aims to mobilise the other countries of the European Union to systemically counteract the use of fake news to manipulate public opinion. Poland, which is also exposed to Russian disinformation campaigns, can take advantage of the Lithuanian experience.
UK European Elections: Implications for the Balance of Power in the EP
Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; European elections; power balance; European Parliament; Brexit; ratification of Brexit agreement; political disputes;
The decision to extend the ratification period of the Brexit agreement until 31 October obliges the United Kingdom to hold European elections. The result will impact the balance of power in the European Parliament (EP). If the Social Democrats in the EP collect additional Labour Party mandates and become the largest faction, it could change the dynamics of the negotiations around the appointment of top EU representatives. British MEPs’ mandate to participate in making decisions that will have a long-term impact is legally incontestable but likely to lead to political disputes.
Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English
Keywords: Kazakhstan; presidential elections; controlled succession of power; peaceful transfer of power; political stability;
On 9 June, Kazakhstan will hold the first presidential elections in which Nursultan Nazarbayev will not take part. Despite his resignation as president, he maintains political influence over the state and will control the succession process. The peaceful transfer of power will have a positive impact on the stability of Central Asia and will foster the EU’s interests in the region.
General Elections in India: Narendra Modi Set for a Second Term
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: India; general elections; Indian People's Party; economic growth; agriculture; foreign policy; state modernization;
The just-concluded parliamentary elections in India will most probably be won by the Indian People's Party (Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP) of incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite growing unemployment and a crisis in agriculture, for most voters, Modi remains a guarantee of economic growth and active foreign policy. India is set to have a stable majority government and continue modernisation. Irrespective of the vote, no major changes in the country’s foreign policy are expected.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; forming new government; Party of Socialists; economic cooperation; international trade;
The recent elections in Moldova are prompting political games. The ruling Democratic Party chaired by the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc probably will form a government with the Party of Socialists. The pro-European bloc ACUM likely will remain in the opposition. This points to the possible further regression in Moldova’s relationship with the EU. In ongoing works under the Eastern Partnership programme after 2020, Poland may promote stricter conditions on further economic cooperation with the EU depending on the implementation of pro-European standards by the Moldovan authorities.
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: World Trade Organisation; WTO reform; global economy; arbitration procedure; developing countries; multilateral agreements;
In the face of changes in the global economy, members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) agree that it needs reform. The main topics of the debate are arbitration procedure, developing country and market economy status, as well as the method for negotiating multilateral agreements. Differences in the positions of members of the organisation mean that the chances of reaching a comprehensive agreement are limited. However, progress is possible in selected areas, such as more frequent negotiations of deals by a smaller number of members.
The Likely Impact of the Presidential Election on Lithuania’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English
Keywords: Lithuania; presidential elections; foreign policy; international relations; government;
Lithuania’s presidential election on 12 May will determine key directions of the country’s foreign policy, as the president, in cooperation with the government, is responsible for leading it. Now, after two terms in office, President Dalia Grybauskaitė gives way. Although Lithuania’s foreign policy priorities will be maintained, they may be adjusted, including relations with Poland. The range of changes is likely to be small if one of the opposition candidates wins, but it could be significant if Saulius Skvernelis, the current prime minister and presidential candidate, wins the election.
RES Development: Implications for Security and Poland’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; foreign policy; security; renewable energy sources; digitalisation of the electrical grid; cybersecurity of energy grid;
The dynamic growth of renewable energy sources (RES) and accompanying digitalisation of the electrical grid creates new challenges for Poland’s and the EU’s security. The most important include securing supplies of raw materials for RES (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and ensuring cybersecurity for the energy grid. The importance of these issues will only grow with the ambitions of authoritarian regimes to control the supply of raw materials and cyberthreats posed by these regimes and non-state actors.
Keywords: NATO; northern flank; Russian Navy and Air Force; security and defence; growing military activity of Russia; military threats;
In response to the growing activity of the Russian Navy and Air Force in the North Atlantic, NATO is strengthening its ability to conduct a collective-defence mission in Northern Europe. The priority for the countries of the region is to augment the sea and air capabilities. Given differences in threat perception and limited funds, some investment in land forces has been postponed, which may hinder their use on the Eastern Flank of the Alliance if needed.
China’s Approach to the INF Treaty and the Development of Intermediate-Range Missiles
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF); reducing missile arsenal; defence and security; military strategy; NATO policy;
China criticised the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF), at the same time rejecting the idea of eliminating or reducing its own enormous missile arsenal. China is concerned that, after demise of the treaty, the U.S. will develop new intermediate-range missiles and deploy them in Asia. Expected changes in U.S. military strategy regarding Chinese and Russian missile arsenals indicate the urgent need for a cohesive NATO policy.
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; People’s Republic of China; EU-China relations; China as systemic rival; policy towards China;
The EU is sharpening its policy towards China, with a new European Commission document describing the country as a systemic rival. Now, the EU is demanding that China introduce changes (such as opening its market), and threatening restrictions if they are not introduced within the prescribed period. This new approach is a means of developing a harder policy towards the PRC and becoming independent of U.S. pressure. At the EU-China summit (9 April), an attempt to take a stricter course resulted in moderate success. EU unanimity and the shape of its institutions after the European Parliamentary elections remain a challenge.
Strengthening defence cooperation with the U.S. is intended to give Hungary greater freedom in foreign policy. However, the course and results of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Budapest in February indicated that tensions have not been eliminated from bilateral relations. Hungary’s undermining of NATO political unity, including with regard to Ukraine, could be costly for the country in the long run and may have a negative effect on bilateral economic cooperation with the U.S.
The Fiasco of Political Banking: Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank Abandon their Merger Plans
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Political banking; Deutsche Bank; Commerzbank; merger plans; Germany; financial institutions; banking union;
The merger of Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank was to lead to the creation of a market player large enough to support the foreign expansion of German industry. The politically-motivated plan failed due to investors’ reluctance and the fear of creating a financial institution that was “too big to fail”. However, the fiasco of the project creates space for European mergers that will favour the completion of the banking union in the EU.
The Limits of a Protest Party’s Success: Challenges for Alternative for Germany
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; parliamentary elections; Alternative for Germany (AfD); German political parties;
Winning third place in the 2017 parliamentary election and introducing representatives to the assemblies of all constituent states anchored Alternative for Germany (AfD) on the German political scene. This allows the party to set another goal: enlarging representation in the European Parliament and landtags in the east of Germany. However, image problems and divisions within the party are a barrier to further growth of support, whereas the lack of coalition capability prevents AfD from transforming electoral successes into co-management at the state and federal level.
The Influence of the Domestic Situation on Russia’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; foreign policy; international relations; government; social dissatisfaction; socio-economic stagnation
The increasing dissatisfaction of the Russians due to the deteriorating socio-economic situation in their country has resulted in declining support for President Vladimir Putin and the government of Dmitry Medvedev. To strengthen their position, the authorities may be more inclined towards confrontational foreign policy, which corresponds to the great-power ambitions of Russian society. If so, the EU might expect more intensive actions aimed at weakening its unity, and for Poland specifically (indicated in the polls of the Russian public as one of their country’s greatest enemies) there could be a continuation of the campaign that disavows its “anti-Russian” foreign and historical policy.
The Prospects of Overcoming Political Conflict in Venezuela
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Venezuela; political conflict; Nicolás Maduro’s government; military and security forces; free elections; political stability;
President Nicolás Maduro’s government remains in power mainly due to the loyalty of the military and security forces, and to support from China and Russia. That is why it managed to counter the opposition’s attempts and international pressure, both mounting since January, to trigger political changes in Venezuela. Stabilisation in the country could be gained through negotiations between the main Venezuelan parties to the conflict resulting in a free election, as supported by the EU. Such a scenario would require cooperation and coordination between the United States, the EU and their Latin American partners.
Prospects for Finland’s European and Foreign Policy after the Parliamentary Election
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Finland; European policy; foreign policy; parliamentary elections; coalition of left-wing parties; European integration policy;
After the parliamentary election in Finland on 14 April, the government will probably be formed by a coalition of left-wing parties. This will not affect the main directions of Helsinki’s European policy or the programme for its presidency of the Council of the EU, which begins in July this year. Finland is in favour of cautious deepening of European integration, without far-reaching reforms. This is an approach similar to the German vision. Focus on strengthening the EU single market links both of these countries with Poland’s European policy. The main assumptions of Finnish foreign and defence policy will remain unchanged after the elections.
A Conservative Europe: Kramp-Karrenbauer’s Vision of Integration
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Future of Europe; free market; no-superstate EU; vision of integration; European politics;
The future of Europe, according to the chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, is a free market, no-superstate EU that is able to play a greater role in the world. Her manifesto is not only a reaction to another French offensive in the area of European politics but also an ideological offer of cooperation to potential allies from Northern and Central Europe.
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union; Brexit; balance of power; EU Council; Council voting;
The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU will undermine the existing balance of power in the EU Council. The resulting imbalance will be reflected in Council votes, decided by qualified majority. The absence of the United Kingdom will strengthen the position of the biggest players, particularly Germany and France. It will reduce the influence of smaller Member States on the process of adoption of EU legislation. It will also increase the risk of marginalisation of EU countries outside the Eurozone.
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