The China–U.S. Dispute on Huawei: A Challenge for the European Union
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; United States; Huawei; China-US dispute; industrial espionage; 5G network development;
Huawei is a symbol of the problems in relations between China and the United States. The U.S. accuses the Chinese corporation of industrial espionage and the Americans intend to use trade negotiations to bring an end to such practice. It is also attempting to persuade European partners to end cooperation with Huawei, for example, in 5G development. The company, meanwhile, is trying to persuade the EU Member States not to bow to U.S. pressure. For most EU governments (such as Germany and Sweden), the Chinese offer is favourable, but they wish to impose more restrictions on Huawei in light of the political and technological risks involved. This twin approach is one element of the EU’s new, critical policy towards China.
U.S. Recognition of Israeli Sovereignty over the Golan Heights
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Israel; recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights; US foreign policy; transatlantic relations; Israeli-Palestinian peace process;
Recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights is part of a series of pro-Israeli decisions made by President Donald Trump, that break with the previous U.S. foreign policy line towards the region. It raises legitimate opposition from other members of the international community. The decision may widen the gap in transatlantic relations and negatively affect the image of the U.S. as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; South Asia; infrastructure development; non-interference in domestic affairs of other countries;
Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China has significantly increased its involvement in the South Asia—a key region for the implementation of both the Eurasian land bridge and Maritime Silk Road. The Chinese expansion is possible due to Beijing’s rich offer of infrastructure development and policy of non-interference in domestic affairs of other countries. Although this policy benefits not only the China, but also the majority of countries in the region, there are growing concerns about over-dependence on China. The Chinese advance is a challenge mainly for India, which traditionally held a dominant position in the region, but rejected the BRI. This can bring also negative consequences for the U.S. and the EU.
The End of the Mueller Investigation and Its Implications for U.S. Domestic and Foreign Policy
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; election campaign; cooperation with Russia; presidential elections; Mueller investigation; foreign policy; relations with Russia;
According to the U.S. attorney general, Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence that President Donald Trump or his campaign staff cooperated with Russia during the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Therefore, the Democrats’ goal will not be impeachment but to create a message about Trump’s unworthiness for re-election. This will be facilitated by the investigations initiated by them in congressional committees, and by other probes carried out by the U.S. judicial system. Trump will try to limit their effect by seeking successes in domestic and foreign policy, although no breakthrough in relations with Russia is to be expected.
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; Russian Federation; Brexit; benefits of Brexit for Russia; EU policy; negative effects of Brexit for Russia; Russian businesses in UK;
The Russian Federation perceives Brexit as beneficial for political and economic purposes. Moscow believes that the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union will deepen the crisis of European integration and weaken the hard-line supporters of an EU policy of tightening sanctions against Russia. Russia also expects that Brexit will limit the outflow of Russian capital abroad, and will persuade Russian oligarchs to return home. However, Brexit could also have negative effects on Russian businesses operating in the UK.
Italy’s European Policy: Positioned between the Five Star Movement and the League
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Italy; European policy; relations with EU; government; domestic policy; Five Star Movement (M5S); League;
The establishment of the government of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League in May 2018 opened a new stage in Italy’s European policy. The policy is the result of the parties’ two different visions concerning relations with the EU. The government programme is based on M5S’s pro-European demands. However, the government is focused on defending the domestic policy created by the ruling coalition, which results in conflicts with the European Commission (EC), France and Germany. Simultaneously, M5S’s and the League’s programmes are divergent from Poland’s interests in some important aspects.
Central Asia is one of the most important regions in Russian foreign policy. The succession of power in Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are used by Russia to increase political pressure. China’s actions are a challenge for Russian policy and lead to an increase in activity in the area of regional security. This may force Russia to put more resources in its Central Asia policy but that will not reduce its activity in other regions in the EU’s neighbourhood.
Romania’s Defence Policy: Ambition and Capabilities
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; defence policy; security policy; military policy; Russia’s foreign and security policy; strengthening armed forces; NATO;
In the face of Russia’s aggressive foreign and security policy, Romania is seeking to increase the presence of Allied forces on its territory. It is strengthening its armed forces despite the failure of some modernization programmes. The cross-party consensus on defence policy includes the allocation of 2% of GDP to defence-related spending. The growth of Romania’s defence potential is conducive to security in the Black Sea region and is in Poland’s interest since Romania is the nearest ally on NATO’s Southeastern Flank.
Russia’s Missile Development: Potential and Limitations
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; military policy; military industry; missile development; hypersonic weapons; advanced armaments; deployment of weapons in space; defensive systems;
Russia’s development of missile capabilities, including hypersonic weapons, is intended to overcome the U.S.’s global conventional advantage. More advanced armaments can be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations on new restrictions, such as barring the deployment of weapons in space. At the same time, with a lower military budget than the U.S., the Russian authorities are afraid of entering a costly arms race, especially those involving defensive systems.
Keywords: Germany; German green political parties; elections; environmental protection; pacifism; women’s rights; social justice;
The German Greens managed to strengthen their position in Bavaria and Hesse in 2018. At the federal level, they achieved the second-most support in the polls. These successes were fostered by the weakening of the CDU, the CSU and the SPD and, at the same, preserving the image of the party as an alternative for centre-left voters. For it to strengthen further requires the acquisition of new groups of voters and the expansion of its structures, especially in the east of Germany.
Perspectives on EU M&A Control after the EC’s Siemens-Alstom Decision
Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: Siemens; Alstrom; railway sector; Siemens taking over Alstrom; EU competition rules; EU economy; Mergers and acquisitions;
The recent decision by the European Commission (EC) prohibiting Siemens from taking over Alstom was perceived by their respective German and French governments as a blow to plans to create a “European champion” in the railway sector. Both states declared that they will strive to change the EU competition rules that prevent similar transactions. According to the traditional approach to competition protection, the implementation of most of the proposals would have negative consequences for the EU economy and indirectly for Polish enterprises and consumers.
The Potential for a Hypersonic Arms Race between the U.S., China, and Russia
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: hypersonic technology; hypersonic arms race; United States; China; Russia; arms control regimes; security policy;
Progress in hypersonic technology will change the battlefield and risks regional arms races. The likelihood of new arms control regimes in this field are small and this has led to a growing problem in relations between the U.S., China, and Russia, the countries most advanced in developing such weapons. The development and deployment of American hypersonic systems might be a new element of deterrence against China and Russia and could influence U.S. allies’ security in Asia and Europe.
The Katowice Rulebook and Perspectives on Global Climate Policy
Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Climate summit in Katowice; global climate policy; reporting greenhouse gas emissions;
Successful negotiations at the climate summit in Katowice (COP24) in December 2018 enabled the establishment of a uniform framework of national contributions and a common methodology for reporting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, some contentious issues could not be resolved, including the mechanism for trading emissions reductions or the length of the periods for presenting national contributions. The Polish presidency of COP24 is now tasked with setting the conditions for finding compromise on these matters before the next climate summit in Chile.
Keywords: Introducing a digital tax; European Union; taxing the digital sector; virtual market;
The European Commission (EC) wants to tax the digital sector in the EU. According to the Commission’s calculations, companies operating on the virtual market pay much lower taxes than traditional enterprises. The aim is to tax U.S. corporations that record high revenues on the EU market but it will also affect European enterprises. The tax is supported by only a few Member States, which diminishes the likelihood of it being introduced quickly. Under pressure from France, Germany, and Spain, the EC is developing a new, narrower version of the proposed regulations, which would be beneficial for Poland.
Perspectives on President Moon’s Inter-Korean Policy
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: South Korea; North Korea; Inter-Korean policy; foreign policy; cooperation with United States;
The improvement of inter-Korean relations is a foreign policy priority of the administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The dynamics of the dialogue between the Korean states will be influenced by internal, especially economic, problems in South Korea, progress in the U.S.–North Korea talks on denuclearisation, and coordination within the U.S.–South Korea alliance. Weakening public support and problems in the alliance may make it difficult for Moon to achieve the main goals of his inter-Korean policy. The EU can play a role in maintaining the North-South dialogue by providing more support for conciliatory measures from the Moon administration.
The Future of Afghanistan: Talks between the U.S. and the Taliban
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; United States; Taliban; negotiations; NATO; peace talks; withdrawal of foreign forces; civil war;
Recent progress in negotiations between representatives of the U.S. and the Taliban gives an opportunity to end the 17-year war in Afghanistan and the NATO mission there. The breakthrough comes at a time when the Taliban are the strongest since 2001, and the administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to withdraw troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible. This gives the negotiating advantage to the Taliban and risks breaking the talks. Withdrawal of foreign forces before an agreement on an intra-Afghan political deal can be reached could lead to the escalation of the civil war and the Taliban taking full power.
Legal Issues Related to the U.S. Withdrawal from the Nuclear Agreement with Iran
Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Iran; nuclear agreement; US withdrawal from nuclear agreement with Iran; legal issues; UN sanctions on Iran;
The exit from the nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA) deprived the U.S. of the possibility to use UN-legitimised means of pressure. Instead, the U.S. is building pressure through unilateral sanctions that also affect non-American entities. The agreement, however, remains in force. As long as the other participants believe Iran respects it, it is unlikely that the suspended UN sanctions on Iran will be re-imposed. In the long run, the unilateral sanctions will lead to tensions between the U.S. and the EU. The deficit of confidence, also on the part of Iran, will make it difficult to find a way out of the situation.
Russia and South Korea: Unsuccessful Attempt at Cooperation
Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; South Korea; cooperation strategy; energy and transport projects; US sanctions against Russia; economic cooperation;
In the last 10 years, Russia and South Korea developed several cooperation strategies, most of which have not been implemented. Among them, the most important were ambitious energy and transport projects. However, the need to involve North Korea, and U.S. sanctions against Russia, presented obstacles to their implementation. Thus, cooperation between Russia and South Korea is currently limited, and will not weaken the close South Korean-NATO relations.
Political Consequences of the U.S. Federal Government Shutdown
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: U.S. Federal Government shutdown; political dispute; Donald Trump; Democrats; building wall on the US-Mexico border;
The U.S. federal government shutdown in December-January ended but that does not mean the end of the political dispute between President Donald Trump and the opposition Democrats in Congress. The crux of the conflict remains the president’s demand to build a wall on the southern border with Mexico. If the president, with the Republicans (GOP), and the Democrats want to avoid another shutdown, they must reach a compromise before 15 February. The Republicans’ scepticism of another shutdown makes the Trump administration more likely to reach an agreement with the Democrats in time. If not, the president may seek to bypass Congress to get wall funding.
Iran Faces an Economic Crisis: Structural Issues More Problematic Than Sanctions
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Iran; United States; economic crisis; sanctions against Iran; bad governance; international trade;
President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) with Iran has impacted the Iranian economy, contributing to the weakening of the currency and the decline in GDP. However, the most important challenges for Iran’s economy are structural problems, including bad governance, corruption, and excessive public sector participation. Attempts to solve these issues have been criticised by ultra-conservatives in Iran who are interested in maintaining the status quo. If reforms were to be successful though, that would create an opportunity for the EU to implement a wider trade mechanism with Iran while stifling the U.S. objections.
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