China’s Space Programme: Political and Military Significance
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; space programme; development of armed forces; armed forces’ operational capabilities in space; militarisation of space;
China’s space programme serves the purpose of developing the economy, for example, new communications technologies. Space is also an area of strategic importance for the country. The Chinese authorities seek to extend the armed forces’ operational capabilities in space and simultaneously exploit politically the militarisation of space. Under its programme, China wants to cooperate with partners to benefit from their experience or co-finance the projects. This cooperation can be beneficial for the EU, including Poland, because it enhances the effectiveness of their space programmes, but additional pressure on transparency of the Chinese actions is needed, such as its plans for militarisation of space.
Keywords: Iran; Africa; policy towards Africa; safety of shipping; transport routes; international isolation; Horn of Africa;
Saudi Arabia is pushing Iran out of the Horn of Africa, where the regional rivalry threatens the safety of shipping along one of the world’s most important transport routes—between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Renewed American sanctions have hampered Iranian economic interests in the eastern and southern parts of Africa. In these circumstances, with the goal of breaking out from international isolation, Iran is focused on building outposts in West Africa by supporting local Shia communities.
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Macedonia; Euro-Atlantic integration; Prespa Agreement; dispute with Greece; unblocking accession talks with NATO and EU; ratification of protocol;
On 12 February, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia. This is the result of the Prespa Agreement, concluded in June 2018 with Greece, which in return unblocked Macedonian accession talks with NATO and the EU. Macedonia has already signed the protocol to join the North Atlantic Alliance and Greece was the first to ratify it. It is expected that in the course of one year, North Macedonia will join NATO, and in June will start accession negotiations with the EU. Acceleration of the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans is an important goal of Poland, so it is worth considering rapid ratification of the protocol.
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; Taiwan; China-Taiwan relations; presidential elections in Taiwan; United States’ role and influence; rising tensions;
China (PRC) is trying to limit Taiwan’s international space and undermine support for the island’s incumbent ruling party. The U.S. actively supports Taiwan, as part of the American president’s policy towards China. This year, one may expect an increase in Chinese pressure on Taiwan because of upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for early 2020 on the island. China’s activity gives insight into how it may try to influence U.S. allies.
Cryptocurrencies as Instruments of State Economic Policy: Challenges and Opportunities
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; economic policy; virtual currencies; decentralised payment systems; systems out of state control; terrorism financing;
Virtual currencies (“cryptocurrencies”) rely on decentralised payment systems independent of the control of state institutions. However, some countries are interested in creating their own cryptocurrencies, citing low costs and speed of transactions. National digital currencies could stabilise a financial system that uses private cryptocurrency. Their use, however, may challenge, for example, the effectiveness of economic sanctions or combating terrorism financing.
Problems and Challenges in Relations between Belarus and Russia
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Russian Federation; disputes between Russia and Belarus; economic and political disputes;
Disputes between Russia and Belarus have grown in recent months, caused by the deadlock in agreeing the price of energy sources and the negative consequences this will have for the Belarusian economy. Moreover, Russia will use political and propaganda tools to maintain Belarus’ dependence. The Belarusian authorities have limited possibilities to oppose such activities. One option could be to seek support, especially economic, from European Union countries.
Keywords: Germany; European Eastern policy; relations with Russia; cooperation; Eastern Partnership; international policy;
Germany’s response to challenges in relations with Russia and partners from Central Europe is the broad vision of the new European Eastern policy. This policy indicates a combination of dialogue with criticism in relations with Russia, reviving relations with the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, and deepening cooperation with the countries of Central Europe. Yet this initiative lacks concrete proposals and contains internal contradictions, which, combined with the current state of European and international policy, call its success into question.
In December 2018, the Spanish conservative party Vox unexpectedly received 10.97% of the votes in regional elections in Andalusia. It allowed the establishment of a centre-right government in the region. The polls show that the party also has the chance to introduce representatives to the European Parliament (EP). Also, their support could be necessary to create a centre-right coalition after the parliamentary elections that will take place at the latest in 2020. This coalition may implement some of Vox’s demands, which would create new areas of collaboration between the governments of Poland and Spain.
The Assumptions of the New U.S. Missile Defence Review
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Missile Defence Review; missile defence systems; NATO; development of offensive systems;
The Missile Defence Review assumes the continuity of U.S. and allied missile defence systems, including within NATO. Studies on new, ambitious and costly technologies, are the most controversial elements of report. The shape and schedule of these projects are unclear, which risks causing disputes in NATO on arms control and the development of more advanced offensive systems by Russia and China.
The State of Slovakia’s Smer-SD Party Ahead of the Presidential and European Parliamentary Elections
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Slovakia; presidential and European parliamentary elections; Smer–Social Democracy party; election candidates;
In the months before the March presidential and May European Parliamentary (EP) elections, Smer–Social Democracy party in Slovakia maintains the greatest support in the polls. Its position will not be harmed by the departure from politics of its chairman, long-standing prime minister Robert Fico, who has applied to be a judge on the Constitutional Court. The party can be strengthened by the victory of Maroš Šefčovič, vice-president of the European Commission (EC) in the presidential election. He openly criticises Russia’s activities, including the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
Financial scandals in Estonia and Latvia confirm that Russia uses the banking sectors of these countries for its own interests. Through suspicious transactions, the funds are laundered and can be used, among others, for political or economic lobbying. The scandals have exposed the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the banking sector of Latvia and Estonia but also have motivated them and the other Member States to implement effective remedies, including at the EU level.
The EU’s Position on the Development of Artificial Intelligence
Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Artificial intelligence (AI); United States; China; artificial intelligence solutions; EU legal regulations; development of digital technologies;
The United States and China are competing for the position of world leader in the field of artificial intelligence solutions, and the European Union is lagging behind. Ongoing work on the EU strategy in this field is aimed at harmonising the activities of individual Member States. EU legal and ethics regulations (protection of consumer rights and anti-discrimination regulations) and the non-commercial use of artificial intelligence (especially in medicine) will be important. The EU should also support all Member States in the development of digital technologies.
Israel’s Political Scene Ahead of the Early Parliamentary Election
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; parliamentary elections; political scene; government; foreign policy;
The coalition government in Israel has called an early parliamentary election. This decision led to numerous changes among the Israeli parties, with Likud, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, still leading the polls. Corruption charges against the PM will be the main political topic before the election. The electoral rivalry will also apply to foreign policy, presented by Netanyahu as an example of his effectiveness as PM.
“Cohesion as a Common European Value:” Romania’s EU Council Presidency
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; European Union; Romanian presidency of the EU Council; EU cohesion; common European value; internal political conflicts; disputes with European institutions;
On 15 January, Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă announced the programme for the first Romanian presidency of the EU Council. As a neutral arbitrator, Romania wants to strengthen the EU’s cohesion, especially by equalising the Member States’ level of development. Most Polish and Romanian interests are concurrent. The presidency’s effectiveness may be limited by internal political conflicts and disputes with European institutions. The Member States’ concentration on Brexit, planned in March, and elections to the European Parliament (EP) in May, would not be conducive to the Romanian presidency’s success.
China’s New Document on the EU: A Small Chance to Improve Relations
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; European Union; EU-China cooperation; improving relations; economic cooperation;
In mid-December 2018, China released its third document on the EU. The timing of its publication and willingness to deepen cooperation show that China wants to improve relations with the EU in the midst of the disputes with the U.S., which have had a negative impact on China’s economy and international image. Chinese authorities hope that the EU will not use Trump’s methods, despite sharing some of his concerns. China instead expects the EU to continue its policy of engagement. However, the content of the document, essentially a long list of EU obligations and a wide catalogue of cooperation areas (e.g., 5G, high-tech) without reference to the EU’s concerns, makes its usefulness questionable.
National Rally’s Prospects for Success in the May European Parliament Elections
Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Parliament elections; Marine Le Pen; election campaign; government;
In 2017, both Marine Le Pen and her party suffered defeat in presidential and parliamentary elections, respectively. Her renamed party, National Rally, was weakened by accusations in court that it had fraudulently used public money and from an outflow of members. However, at the end of 2018, her party managed to overtake the president’s in the polls and has a chance to win the elections to the European Parliament (EP). It is bolstered by growing dissatisfaction and criticism of the government among the public as well as low competition from other opposition groups.
Innovative Financial Instruments in International Development Cooperation: Opportunities for Poland
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: International development cooperation; sustainable development; financial instruments; European Union; developing countries;
Changes in international development cooperation are heading towards the greater involvement of the private sector in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and stimulating growth in developing countries. One way to achieve these aims is through the wider use of innovative financial instruments (IFI). They offer also an opportunity for Poland to effectively engage national business in development cooperation. This will be served by the strengthening of institutional capacities in this area in cooperation with experienced donors from the EU.
Investment Screening Reforms in the U.S. and EU: A Response to Chinese Activity
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; European Union; reviewing foreign investments; investment screening; strengthen transatlantic relations; threat to the competitiveness;
The U.S. has expanded the competences of the institution responsible for reviewing foreign investments and the EU has completed the procedure of implementing a similar mechanism (screening). Both processes are in reaction to the investment activity of Chinese entities, including takeovers of high-tech companies. The Chinese actions pose a potential threat to the competitiveness of other countries’ economies and even their security. The EU screening mechanism can help protect against these practices and is also an opportunity to strengthen transatlantic relations and contribute to the development of a common U.S. and EU position on WTO reform.
US Electoral System Infrastructure: Threats and Protection Against Russian Interference
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; electoral system infrastructure; Russian interference in elections; social media; preventing attacks and manipulation attempts; securing electoral process;
Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. elections highlighted the vulnerability of American society and the political and electoral system to hard and soft cyberattacks. Despite preventive measures being voted on by Congress and efforts by the social media industry, it has been impossible to eliminate the flaws in electoral infrastructure and social media, which were seen again in this year’s “midterm” elections. These factors will affect future elections and the U.S. in time will probably intensify its efforts to prevent attacks and manipulation attempts. This experience could become instrumental for Poland in securing its own electoral process.
Keywords: South Sudan; peace agreement; conflict; ending the civil war; reforms; political influence of EU and US;
A peace deal signed in Khartoum on 12 September formally ended the civil war that erupted in 2013. The deal’s conditions, formulated under pressure from neighbouring states, are inadequate for the challenges South Sudan is facing and they are not sustainable. The agreement would enable the leaders of the parties in conflict to strengthen their respective factions, which may lead to tensions in the future. If the EU and the U.S. want to increase chances of lasting peace and regain political influence, they must tie aid to implementing reform.
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