Protests in Hungary: No Significant Consequences for the Government
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; protests; changes in labour laws; changes in judicial system; political crisis; government;
Protests in Hungary that have been ongoing since mid-December against changes to labour laws and the judicial system will not weaken the authorities and will not lead to a socio-political crisis. The joint participation of opposition parties in the street demonstrations will not translate into political cooperation. The upcoming election campaign for European Parliament (EP) will reveal the diverging interests of the opposition forces. Competition between them is likely to help the governing Fidesz achieve a clear victory. The chances trade unions will hold a general strike are small, also due to legal restrictions introduced earlier by the government.
The decisions of the December summit of eurozone countries to set up a budget for the monetary union are in line with Germany’s expectations. The new financial pool is indeed deepening integration, but its small size and lack of autonomous character do not violate their economic interests and the existing EU integration structure. The outcome is also acceptable to EU Member States outside the euro area because it lowers the risk of differentiated integration.
Libya is increasingly important in Russian foreign policy. The support given to the main political forces, including to Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who has the most military potential, should ensure Russian influence on the country. From Russia’s perspective, it is important for the new Libyan authorities to guarantee the development of economic and energy cooperation and the implementation of contracts concluded before the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. Russia also counts on the possibility of deploying military bases on Libyan territory. Engagement in Libya is a part of the new Russian strategy towards Africa and manifestation of Russia’s aspirations to regain the status of superpower.
Balance of Italy’s Political Forces Ahead of European Elections
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Italy; European elections; election campaign; European Union; Italian government; political conflicts;
The campaign in Italy for May’s European elections began with a conflict about the national budget between the Italian government and the European Commission (EC). Evaluations of the EU forms the dividing line between the main political forces. Opposition parties accuse the government of a confrontational attitude towards EU institutions. The ruling party’s leaders hope that before the elections to the European Parliament (EP), more parties similar to them will rise up and that together they will change the balance of power inside the EU. However, the conflicts between Italy and the EC will strengthen irrespective of the election results.
Israel in Chinese Policy: Innovation and Strategic Importance
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; People’s Republic of China; foreign policy; economic cooperation; IT sector; development of modern technologies; investment projects; innovations;
The significance of Israel in China’s foreign policy is rising, especially as a source of modern technology in the IT sector and destination for infrastructure investment. The economic cooperation and political dialogue between China and Israel are also motivated by the protection of Chinese investment projects in, for example, Egypt and Iraq. China’s engagement in the Middle East could also translate in a reduction of activity in the European part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Enlargement of the Chinese military presence in the Middle East is also possible and could become a challenge for NATO.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; strengthening military capabilities; military policy; Western Flank; NATO;
Since the NATO Warsaw Summit, during which the decision to deploy four multinational battalion-sized battle groups on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank was taken, Russia has significantly developed its military capabilities in the country’s western areas. This raises serious challenges both for members of the Alliance and for countries in-between, including Ukraine. The effectiveness of deterrence against Russia will depend on the political cohesion of the Alliance and the further strengthening of its military capabilities on the Eastern Flank.
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; digital space; cyberspace; foreign policy; cybersecurity; cybercrime; global regulation of cyberspace;
The Russian authorities actively use the digital space to achieve foreign policy goals. On Russia’s initiative, the UN General Assembly adopted two new resolutions in the field of cybersecurity. The first concerns the rules of conduct of states on the internet and the second deals with cybercrime. They were adopted despite opposition from Western countries. Russia is trying to protect the Russian network against external influence. The aim of these activities is ensuring the stability of the internal political regime.
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; Saudi Arabia; US policy in the Middle East; destabilization of the region; rivalry between Turkey and Saudi Arabia;
The expected meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on the margins of the G20 Buenos Aires summit did not take place. Thus, one can expect the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia to remain strained in the coming months. The rivalry between both countries is another challenge for U.S. policy in the Middle East, hindering the normalisation of Turkish-American relations and intensifying the destabilisation of the region.
Keywords: Lithuania; energy policy; energy independence and self-sufficiency; competitiveness of energy sector; international cooperation; regional energy market;
Lithuania wants to become independent from Russia and increase the self-sufficiency and the competitiveness of its energy sector. The basis for its transformation and modernisation will be, inter alia, renewable energy sources, of which the role in the energy balance is increasing in line with EU requirements. At the same time, Lithuania intends to introduce innovations that will increase energy efficiency. These activities may stimulate stronger cooperation with Poland, which Lithuania perceives as one of its most important partners.
Cooperation between Local Governments in Poland and MENA
Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Middle East and North Africa (MENA); Poland-MENA cooperation; Polish local governments; promotion of Poland in MENA region; bilateral relations;
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is not only a promising market for Polish entrepreneurs but also an interesting direction for cities and provinces. Federal states (the United Arab Emirates) and decentralised ones (Tunisia) in the region deserve the special attention of Polish local governments. Expo 2020 in Dubai will be an opportunity to involve local governments in the promotion of Poland in the MENA region, and to establish contacts with local authorities in Arab countries. Local government cooperation can supplement bilateral relations at the central level.
New Cycle of the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP)
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; development of technologically advanced weapons; collective defence mission; Polish security;
In the coming years, NATO will increase the pressure for the development of technologically advanced weapons. Superiority over Russia in this area will be crucial for the ability to conduct a collective-defence mission. The simultaneous development of capabilities for crisis-response missions also will be necessary to maintain political cohesion in the Alliance. NATO’s ability to perform both types of missions at the same time will be crucial for Polish security in the long term.
Political Effects of Hungary Granting Asylum to the Former Prime Minister of Macedonia
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; North Macedonia; Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski; granting asylum; abuse of power; EU enlargement policy; rule of law;
The former Prime Minister of Macedonia Nikola Gruevski was granted asylum in Hungary on 20 November. Sheltering a politician who has been convicted of abuse of power in a candidate country for EU membership raises legal doubts and political controversy. Hungary’s participation in obstructing the operation of Macedonian state institutions constitutes a challenge above all for EU enlargement policy, which aims to strengthen the rule of law.
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union; Brexit; future EU-UK relations; Brexit agreement; Brexit’s conditions; exit agreement;
The deal on the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU, which was signed off by EU and UK leaders on 25 November, determines not only the Brexit’s conditions but also important aspects of the future EU-UK relations. The deal’s content represents a success for the EU, reflecting all of the Union’s initial objectives and limiting the incorporation of the UK’s. Consequently, the outcome of the negotiations makes the agreement’s rejection by the UK parliament highly probable. Such a scenario would increase the likelihood of “no-deal” Brexit.
A “Trillion Euro” Problem: Target 2 as a Risk for Germany
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; eurozone; joint budget; banking union; Target 2 payment system; central banks; stability of the eurozone;
In the German discussion on the eurozone, there is not only a question of reforms, e.g. the introduction of a joint budget and finalisation of the banking union. Much attention is also paid to the Target 2 payment system, which simultaneously accumulated the high, positive balance of the Bundesbank and the negative balances of the central banks of the southern European countries. This imbalance is considered an economic and political risk for Germany. However, remedies against it are in short supply. Actions that are too rapid or radical could destabilise the eurozone.
The U.S. has warned that it will withdraw from the INF Treaty unless Russia returns to compliance with the accord by February 2019. A tougher position was also adopted by the NATO members, all 29 of which agreed for the first time that Russia has violated the treaty. Further diplomatic efforts, however, provide no realistic chance to change Russia’s calculations and behaviour, especially given that the Alliance has not worked out a broader strategy to increase pressure on the country.
The Digital Dimension of the Three Seas Initiative
Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Three Seas Initiative; digital infrastructure; TSI’s digital dimension; energy and transport infrastructure; digital single market;
Expansion of digital infrastructure is one of the three pillars of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI). So far, the TSI’s digital dimension has been less elaborate than the goal of enhancing energy and transport infrastructure. Yet, without closing the digital development gaps, the TSI will struggle to make the most of the EU’s emerging digital single market. Placing greater emphasis on the enhancement of digital infrastructure could convince those TSI countries that have thus far seemed to stand on the sidelines to become more involved the project in the future.
A Polar Silk Road: The Arctic in China’s Foreign and Economic Policies
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Polar Silk Road; People’s Republic of China; foreign policy; economic policy; The Arctic; Belt and Road Initiative;
The Arctic is playing an increasingly important role in Chinese foreign and economic policy. In January 2018, the Chinese government published a strategy for this region, recognising it as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The Arctic is to be used primarily as a source of raw materials and an attractive transport route connecting Eastern Asia with Europe. China’s actions may ultimately challenge the interests of Poland’s allies, including the United States, which should be taken into account when considering cooperation with Chinese entities.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; European Union; EU integration; low democratic standards; international relations;
The European Union’s confidence in Moldova’s governing Democratic Party was undermined by its undemocratic practices. Vladimir Plahotniuc, the oligarch at the head of the party, is trying to regain EU financial support by amending Moldova’s constitution to take into account European integration. In the face of EU tenacity, he is also looking for rapprochement with its competitors, Russia and Turkey. This may be an attempt to strike a balance between them and the EU. The lowering of democratic standards in Moldova is a challenge for Poland and other promoters of the Eastern Partnership.
Prospects for Cooperation between Polish and African Local Governments
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep,Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; Sub-Saharan Africa; Polish-African cooperation; local governments; international relations; rapid urbanisation;
International activity of local governments may be one of the most important tools for Poland’s involvement in Sub-Saharan African countries. By organising business missions and information activities, local government units support local enterprises in African markets. Another area of cities and regions’ engagement is development and humanitarian aid in the poorer regions of the continent. Due to the rapid urbanisation in African countries, cooperation with local authorities can also become an important element of the exchange of experience and promotion of Polish cities.
Conflict over Italy’s 2019 Budget: Implications for European Policy
Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Italy; European policy; Italy’s 2019 budget; political conflicts; financial sanctions; eurozone;
Italy submitted a draft budget for 2019 to the European Commission (EC), which is, however, not in line with the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission can launch the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) and impose financial sanctions but that remedy is unlikely because the Commission would rather adopt a conciliatory stance to avoid the growth of anti-European sentiment in Italy. Given this ongoing conflict, adoption of a reform package for the eurozone will be delayed.
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