Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: PESCO; European Union; security and defence policy; European Defence Fund; Europe’s defence capabilities;
The EU has adopted a second batch of projects to be implemented within permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) in the area of security and defence policy. The long-term impact of PESCO on Europe’s military capacity will depend on the commitment to implement these initiatives and on launching new ones that will address key gaps in Europe’s defence capabilities. This can be done mostly through collaborative defence programmes, eligible for co-funding from the European Defence Fund. By participating in these initiatives, Poland could reap industrial, military, and political benefits.
The Introduction of Qualified Majority Voting in EU Foreign Policy: Member State Perspectives
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; EU foreign policy; decision-making process in EU; international relations;
The European Commission’s (EC) proposal to resign from the unanimity rule in certain areas of the EU’s external relations will not be supported by many smaller EU countries. However, ahead of the Sibiu summit in May 2019, Member States will debate other mechanisms to improve the decision-making process in EU foreign policy, for example, the creation of a European Security Council (ESC). In a contribution to this process, Poland may exchange views on the ESC concept within the Weimar Triangle format (Poland, Germany, France) and propose an EU representative be present in international conflict-resolution negotiation formats in which Member States participate.
U.S. National Defense Strategy Commission Report Conclusions
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; U.S. National Defense Strategy Commission (NDSC); military policy; armed forces; defence budget; NATO’s Eastern Flank;
A recently published report by the U.S. National Defense Strategy Commission (NDSC) is an important non-partisan document that may influence debates on the defence budget in the new Congress. The NDSC assessed the main problems within the U.S. armed forces and the necessary steps for modernisation and budgeting. The unclassified report gives good insight into the scale of the challenges and efforts ahead of the U.S. and other NATO-member militaries. However, the NDSC report does not directly address the issue of the U.S. Army permanent forward presence on NATO’s Eastern Flank but it recommends to the Pentagon and Congress to fully re-create in the long term its heavy division in Europe.
President Emmanuel Macron’s EU Reform Plan: Appraisal and Prospects
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; European Union; President Emmanuel Macron’s EU reform plan; migration policy; eurozone; EU enlargement policy; defence policy; common market;
A year after announcing a plan for reforming the European Union, Emmanuel Macron has made progress with only some of his initiatives. Developments in the field of industrial and defence cooperation reflect, to an extent, the French president’s proposals. Differences of opinion between EU Member States thwarted changes concerning migration policy and the eurozone. The “multi-speed Europe” scenario, entailing the emergence of an avant-garde of countries interested in closer integration, is less likely today than it was a year ago.
Cooperation between Polish and Israeli Local Governments
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; Israel; local governments; Polish-Israeli cooperation; inter-city partnerships; sustainable development programmes;
The local-government dimension of relations between Poland and Israel, mainly twin cities, remains limited by the small number of active partnerships. The existing cooperation initiatives, often very intensive, remain focused on historical and cultural issues. However, there is also visible potential for widening the scope to include startups and sustainable development programmes. The actions of local governments, appropriately supported by the central authorities, can strengthen the interpersonal dimension of relations. This is particularly important in the context of the Polish-Israeli dialogue on difficult matters.
Author(s): Łukasz Jurczyszyn / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; fight against terrorism; President Emmanuel Macron; types of threats; anti-terrorist regulations and institutions; security;
The fight against terrorism is one of President Emmanuel Macron’s political priorities. Activities in this field are carried out in two main directions, one, in the country, through new institutions and regulations and, two, abroad, through military operations and by increasing development assistance in Africa and the Middle East. More and more evidence indicates that they have been having the expected operational and political effects. The number of detected and subverted terrorist plots is increasing and Macron’s initiatives in this area can count on considerable public support.
The Czech Political Scene after the October Elections
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czech Republic; political scene; local and Senate elections; government; coalition; foreign policy;
The October local and Senate elections ended a 12-month electoral cycle in the Czech Republic that also included presidential and Chamber of Deputies elections. The Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) has maintained its position as the main political force. However, the elections to the Senate, a test of support for the government of the ANO-ČSSD coalition, strengthened the right-wing parliamentary opposition. The appointment of Tomáš Petříček as the minister of foreign affairs completes the composition of Andrej Babiš’s government. The most important challenge facing the new minister will be to strengthen the cohesion of Czech foreign policy.
Russia’s Approach to the Development of Intermediate-Range Missiles
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; intermediate-range missiles; military industry; missile development; United States; cruise missiles; arms control; nuclear weapons;
Russia will present the expected withdrawal of the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Elimination Treaty (INF) as a step forcing a military response from Moscow. Even if the Russian Federation were to violate the INF by deploying new cruise missiles with a range greater than 500 km, the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty creates opportunity to blur responsibility. In the event of divided opinions within NATO, Russia’s position in arms control might be stronger vis-à-vis Europe and, indirectly, the United States. Moreover, Russia will continue expansion of its arsenal of ground-launched missiles.
The Democratic Party won a majority in the House of Representatives in the U.S. “midterm” elections, although the Republican Party retained its majority in the Senate. The Republicans’ defeat will weaken President Donald Trump, who will have to seek common ground with the Democrats, for example, on the budget. The Democrats will try to undermine Trump administration policy using the powers of Congressional oversight and by obstructing legislation sent to the House by the Republican majority in the Senate.
The Prospect of Parliamentary Elections in Spain in the Context of the Crisis in Catalonia
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Spain; parliamentary elections; crisis in Catalonia; government; separatism; law on budget;
The opposition of Catalan MPs to the Spanish government’s draft budget law for 2019 could prompt the prime minister to call early elections for the Spanish and Catalan parliaments. There is increasing support in the polls for the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) and in Catalonia, for the opponents of secession. The potential for a stronger government and the separatist neutralisation would promote Spain in the EU, especially in the context of the negotiation of the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027 (MFF).
Assumptions and Main Directions of North Korea’s Foreign Policy
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; foreign policy; nuclear deterrence policy; nuclear weapons; political conflicts; America; China;
Despite its openness to dialogue, North Korea does not intend to abandon its policy of nuclear deterrence, which guarantees the survival of the regime and is the overriding interest of the North Korean authorities. Instead, by using denuclearisation rhetoric, the North aims to end its isolation, improve its economic situation, and gain recognition as a legitimate nuclear weapons state. To achieve these goals, it will try to exploit conflicts between South Korea, the U.S., and China.
Confucius Institutes as a Tool for Promoting China’s Interests
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Confucius Institutes; People’s Republic of China; promoting China; positive image in the world; higher education; cooperation in education;
Confucius Institutes (CI), established at universities outside China, are intended to promote a positive image of the country in the world. CI branches are becoming an integral part of the establishments at which they operate, so the universities are in part responsible for the content disseminated by CI. CI branches are not allowed to present topics controversial from China’s perspective. Most universities accept this, because Confucius Institutes allow them to expand their educational offer. However, some establishments, for example in the U.S. and Sweden, have acknowledged that CI activity is at variance with their mission and cancelled contracts with their Chinese partner. Following these examples, Polish institutes of higher education should evaluate their own cooperation with Confucius Institutes.
Prospects for Settling the Dispute over the Rights of the Hungarian Minority in Ukraine
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Hungarian minority; dispute over rights of minority; dispute in domestic politics; Hungarian-Ukrainian relations; Polish-Hungarian relations;
The dispute over the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia is based on a fundamental difference of interests. While Ukraine aims to strengthen its citizens’ sense of belonging to the country, Hungary strives to extend the rights of the minority, which means there are no prospects for easing the tensions in the short term. What is more, further escalation is likely, since both parties use the dispute in domestic politics. The difference in Hungary’s and Poland’s approach to Ukraine will weigh on Polish-Hungarian relations.
After Abbas: Implications of the Palestinian Authority Succession
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Palestine; President Mahmoud Abbas; Palestinian Authority; conflict with Israel;
President Mahmoud Abbas’s position is weakening, which opens the perspective for his succession as leader of the Palestinian Authority (PA). A change will create a chance to break the political stagnation in the Palestinian Territories. The priority of the new authorities will be the consolidation of internal support to reduce the likelihood of a change in the Palestinian position in the conflict with Israel. This scenario could generate tensions in relations with external partners, whose support is crucial for the PA’s stability.
Changes in Hungary’s Policy towards the Western Balkans
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; Western Balkans; European integration; domestic politics; foreign policy; EU’s enlargement strategy;
Measures taken by Hungary in the Western Balkans indicate a change in the country’s approach to the region. Although accelerating the European integration of the Balkans remains a long-term goal for Hungary, its engagement in domestic politics in the region can hinder achieving this objective. Impeding integration is in line with Russia’s goals in the immediate neighbourhood of the EU. It does not serve Poland’s interests, the Visegrad Group’s suppositions, or the EU’s enlargement strategy.
Policy Implications of Increased Migration to Spain
Author(s): Maciej Pawłowski,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Spain; reduction of irregular migration; migration policy; asylum seekers;
Despite the significant reduction of irregular migration to the European Union, the number of migrants arriving to Spain is increasing. In the national debate on this issue, the Socialist government of Pedro Sánchez faces growing criticism from both the right and the left. Maintaining the current course in migration policy will require intensifying cooperation with Spain’s European partners. The Spanish authorities will reinforce the pressure on them to increase EU financial support for southern European countries and to find a European solution to asylum.
The signing of a formal peace treaty between Russia and Japan is questionable in the near term, but negotiations on this issue have become a platform for political rapprochement and deepening economic relations. Energy cooperation between the two weakens the sanctions on Russia by NATO and EU countries. It may also undermine one of their most important instruments of putting pressure on Russia, which is obstructing access to new mining technology.
The Political and Military Significance of NATO’s Trident Juncture 2018 Exercises
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; Trident Juncture 2018 exercises; collective defence and deterrence; potential Russian threats; military exercise;
Trident Juncture 2018 is intended to strengthen NATO’s ability to conduct collective-defence and deterrence in response to potential Russian threats. The field manoeuvres will test about 45,000 Alliance soldiers. During command-post exercises, simulations without troops, it will check NATO’s ability to lead a defensive operation involving much larger forces. Although the exercises will take place mainly in Norway, the Alliance will demonstrate the ability to respond to threats in the entire Nordic-Baltic region.
Enhancing EU–India Connectivity: Towards New Spice Routes
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; India; infrastructure projects; Belt and Road Initiative; enhancing connectivity; economic cooperation; transregional transport;
The approaches of the EU and India to the connectivity between Asia and Europe largely converge. Both the Union and the country emphasize the importance of maintaining the highest international standards in infrastructure projects, share similar concerns regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and implement their own ambitious transregional transport projects in their respective neighbourhood. Comprehensive cooperation on connectivity may become a key element of their strategic partnership, help promote regulatory standards, and boost economic cooperation. Better connectivity between Europe and India is also in Poland’s interest.
Changes in Latvian Foreign Policy after the Parliamentary Elections
Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latvia; foreign policy; parliamentary elections; change of government; changes in foreign policy; relations with Russia;
The parliamentary elections in Latvia scheduled for 6 October will probably lead to a change of government. Due to the dynamics of the political scene, the Harmony party, representing mainly the interests of the Russian minority, may have a chance to enter the government coalition. This would not cause a fundamental change in Latvian foreign policy but could introduce new elements to it in relations with Russia, mainly in the economic dimension.
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