In the last six months, new information has emerged about Russia’s progress in developing a new type of weapon, the Poseidon nuclear underwater drone, which should enter service in the next decade. Its purposes and capabilities are debated by experts in NATO countries but their analyses frequently omit important experience from the Cold War. In 2018-2021, this drone could become an issue in the U.S.-Russia negotiations on preserving New START and the shape of NATO’s ballistic missile defence system.
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; migration management; information systems; mass-migration crisis; electronic databases; management of migration flows in EU; internal security;
The mass-migration crisis exposed shortcomings in the use of electronic databases for border control and internal security in the EU. In response to these problems, the European Commission (EC) has initiated the modernisation of existing IT systems and the creation of new ones while aiming to ensure interoperability. The development of information systems will support the management of human migration flows in the EU, which should increase internal security. However, it also creates a number of challenges related to the protection of collected and processed data.
Keywords: European Union; war in Syria; ending the war; diplomacy; military action; political conflict; undemocratic regime; peace negotiation;
The war in Syria has entered its final stage, one in which diplomacy will dominate military action. The most likely scenario for the end to this conflict—the Syrian government’s victory—creates a set of political risks to the EU: legitimisation of the undemocratic regime in Syria, engagement in highly politicized reconstruction projects that do not contribute to the improvement in living standards of Syrians, and granting Russia political gains without it also accepting adequate responsibility for the fate of Syrian returnees.
Prospects for the End of Eritrea’s International Isolation
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eritrea; international isolation; accusations of sponsoring terrorism; destabilisation of the region; Eritrean regime;
Eritrea remains Africa’s most isolated state, accused of sponsoring terrorism and destabilising the region. Reconciliation with Ethiopia, sealed on 8 July, and its neighbours’ openness to dialogue may lead to a revitalisation of Eritrea’s relations with the outside world. But the Eritrean regime, facing increasing economic expectations from its population, may not survive the shift.
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; science policy; cultural policy; science financing; funding for scientific researches; social development;
After the last parliamentary elections in April, the Hungarian government began to reform science financing in the country. The changes consist of limiting the budgetary autonomy of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS) and determining the research areas considered priority. Funding for basic research is to be reduced, which in the long term might negatively affect the quality of science and the Hungarian economy’s competitiveness. At the same time, ideological homogenisation is taking place in the cultural sphere. This may lead to limiting social development.
Energy Union Governance: Transferring Competences to the European Union
Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; energy union governance; climate and energy management system; coordination of national energy policies;
The Energy Union, one of the priorities of the European Commission, requires a management system in the field of energy and climate, built from the European level. Such a system will come into effect soon. Not only will it strengthen the coordination of national energy policies, but also the supervision by the EU institutions. This will help the EU achieve its objectives, but at the expense of the Member States' latitude in policy-making.
Prospects of Energy Cooperation between Russia and Bulgaria
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Bulgaria; energy cooperation; energy projects; gas transit; nuclear power plants;
Bulgaria and Russia want to renew their cooperation in joint energy projects of strategic importance, which would benefit Bulgaria economically and allow Russia to strengthen its economic and political influence across South-Eastern Europe. The European Commission and EU Member States can limit the potential negative impact by supporting investment in new gas links or the diversification of nuclear fuel supplies.
“A Dynamic Visegrad for Europe” – Slovakia’s V4 Presidency
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Visegrad Group V4; Slovakia’s V4 presidency; European Union; EU reform; international relations; regional policy;
Slovakia, which on 1 July this year took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group, underlines the need for the V4 to participate in EU reform. Unlike the previous Hungarian presidency, Peter Pellegrini’s government wants to cooperate more intensively with France, Germany and the EU institutions. In addition, Slovakia will pursue its own goals, trying to transfer to group level issues such as other Austrian social reforms and facilitating repatriation from the UK, which concern other V4 countries to some degree. Slovakia’s presidency will support the implementation of Polish demands in regional policy.
The Importance of the Energy and Petroleum Industries for Belarus
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; energy and petroleum industries; Belarusian economy; energy dependence on Russia; gas and crude oil; energy market;
The energy and petroleum industries are the basis of the Belarusian economy. At the same time, the country’s almost total dependence on Russia is becoming a barrier to its own development, and the rising prices of Russian gas and crude oil may lead to a serious crisis in the state’s finances. Until 2024, when the gas contract with Russia and preferential oil purchase rules expire, the Belarusian authorities will have a few limited opportunities to develop energy cooperation with EU countries. However, if by that time the Belarusians do not conclude new favourable agreements with Russia, which does not want to subsidise Belarus to the extent it does now, Belarus increasingly will be interested in acquiring gas and oil from other countries.
Perspectives of Turkey’s Foreign Policy under the Presidential System
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; foreign policy; presidential system; cooperation with EU and NATO; international relations;
After Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ swearing-in on 9 July, the presidential system in Turkey was officially introduced. The brinkmanship and tendency to strike a balance between allied commitments and relations with other countries will be maintained in Turkey’s foreign policy. It will also have a more centralised character, subordinated to the president. As a result, Turkey will remain a difficult partner for the EU and NATO allies.
Negotiations on Maintaining Gas Transit via Ukraine
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Ukraine; European Union; gas transit via Ukraine; gas market reforms; Nord Stream 2; gas pipeline construction;
The trilateral gas talks between the European Commission (EC), Ukraine, and Russia that resumed in July face serious challenges. The reasons for that include the Russians’ attempt to link the negotiations to other issues and Ukraine’s stalled gas market reforms. Furthermore, the EC does not have formal tools to influence either country. This may change if EU Member States support amendments to the gas directive and the mandate for the EU-Russia negotiations on the status of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline project. However, this will require countries that support the pipeline construction to overcome their reluctance to back the changes.
Cohesion Policy after 2020: A Cautious Attempt at Reform
Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; cohesion policy; Multiannual Financial Framework; budget programme; EU budget;
The future of the EU’s second-largest budget programme, European Cohesion Policy (ECP), is the subject of a dispute during negotiations on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021-27. The main dividing line runs between advocates of maintaining high transfers for this purpose, and those who wish to transfer some of the funds to other areas of the EU budget. Despite the opposition of some net contributing states, it is likely that the amount proposed by the European Commission will be maintained at the price of moderate ECP reform.
The Importance of Cooperation with China for Belarus
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; People’s Republic of China; economic cooperation; Belarus-China relations; building transport infrastructure; shipping and logistic centers;
Belarusian authorities attach significant importance to relations with China as an opportunity for economic development and strengthening their state’s international position. In China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), they see possibilities for the development of the Great Stone industrial park near Minsk, as well as upgraded transport infrastructure and shipping and logistics centres. Although relations with China may have adverse economic consequences, they give an opportunity to strengthen Belarus’s cross-border cooperation with Poland and the European Union.
Not Only Coal: The Prospective Role of the Renewable Energy Industry in Polish Exports
Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Renewable energy sources; Polish export; coal energy sector; economic and energy policy; trade of goods related to coal-fired energy;
The value of Polish exports of devices for generating energy from renewable sources is similar to the value of exports of machinery in the coal energy sector. At the same time, global trends indicate a declining potential of trade in goods related to coal-fired energy. It is worth considering these trends when shaping Polish economic and energy policy to support this branch of the economy on more prospective global markets.
New Government in the Czech Republic: Perspectives on Domestic and Foreign Policy
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czech Republic; new government; domestic policy; foreign policy; European policy;
After nearly nine months of efforts by Prime Minister Andrei Babiš, the Cabinet of the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) and Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) on 12 July won a vote of confidence. The creation of the minority government was made possible by the unprecedented support of the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM). The contract with ANO allows it to influence the government’s domestic policy. In turn, in foreign policy, the so far ineffective pressure of the communists may gain momentum in their cooperation with President Miloš Zeman.
Bulgaria’s National Identity Policy in the Balkans
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bulgaria; European policy; Bulgarian minority; Western Balkans; national identity policy;
Bulgaria claims a special competence to shape relations between the EU and the Western Balkans. While holding its first presidency of the Council of the EU, Bulgaria sought to strengthen its influence on European policy towards the region. At the same time, it tried to convince the Balkan states that their integration with the EU would not be possible without Bulgarian support. This two-pronged approach allows the Bulgarian authorities to raise the status of the Bulgarian minority with respect to the Balkan partners, which may affect the stability of the Western Balkans and their integration with the EU.
The Change of UN Security Council Members in 2019 and the Significance for Poland
Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: UN Security Council; change of council members; UN activities; international relations; international organisations;
Of the five non-permanent members who will join the UN Security Council (UNSC) in 2019, particular activity may be expected from Germany, which would like to be seen as representing the interests of the EU, and South Africa, which seeks greater influence of African states and international organisations on UN activities on the continent. The presence of both Germany and France on the Council will provide Poland with an opportunity to revive tripartite cooperation.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Japan; United States; Japanese-American relations; security strategy; defence policy; limiting usage of military instruments; foreign trade;
Japan is seeking to change its security strategy, limiting the possibility of using military instruments. Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's announcement that he seeks to alter the constitution and defence policy also results from the growing uncertainty about the future of Japan’s alliance with the U.S., dictated by the attitude of the Donald Trump administration towards American allies in the region and in Europe. A growing concern of Abe’s government is also the increase in U.S. protectionism in foreign trade, which may hinder Japan’s economic growth and cause it to seek closer cooperation with the EU.
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Mexico; presidential elections; political scene; political change; government; Mexican-American relations;
Ándres Manuel López Obrador’s victory in the presidential election on 1 July signals a political turn in Mexico. Politicians from outside party structures dominant for the last three decades now will rule the country. The new government must deal with rising corruption and crime, slow economic growth, social inequality, and tensions in relations with the U.S. On one hand, the government will strive for cooperation with the Donald Trump administration and, on the other, will seek to reduce Mexico’s economic dependence on the U.S. The EU, including Poland, should use the recently enhanced partnership with Mexico in its cooperation with the new government.
“A Europe that Protects”: Austria’s EU Council Presidency
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Austria; European Union; Austrian presidency of the EU Council; security policy; migration policy; integration of Western Balkans;
The number one priority of the Austrian presidency of the EU Council, which began on 1 July, is security. This issue is subordinated to the other main points of the presidency programme: migration, digitisation, and integration of the Western Balkans with the EU. Although the Austrian approach is similar to the Polish one in the sphere of migration policy, differences remain regarding the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021–2027 (MFF), energy policy, and the European Commission’s enforcement of the rule of law.
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