German Christian Democrats Spar over Asylum Policy
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; asylum policy; political conflict; political stability; admitting refugees; foreign policy;
It is difficult to consider the agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Union (CSU), which settled a dispute between them over rules on admitting refugees, as a radical change in German asylum policy. It rather proves that both parties began to see the risks and costs associated with continuation of the conflict. This is good news for Germany’s neighbours who—at least for now—do not have to worry about the political stability of a country of key importance for the EU.
The Impact of the Trump-Putin Meeting on NATO Political Cohesion
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Russian Federation; Trump-Putin meeting; NATO political cohesion; investing in deterrence and defence;
The confidential nature of U.S. President Donald Trump’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the uncertainty surrounding any arrangements agreed during them may have a negative impact on NATO’s further adaptation to threats from Russia. For some Alliance members, the talks may be a signal that instead of investing in deterrence and defence, NATO should look for ways to resume cooperation with Russia. In that case, the Alliance would also find it more difficult to maintain consensus on support for Ukraine and Georgia.
Increased Tensions in Kashmir: Consequences for India and Internationally
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: India; Kashmir; violations of human rights; mass protests; Indian conflict with Pakistan; increased tensions;
The deteriorating security situation in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir is becoming a growing challenge for India. Reports on violations of human rights are increasingly publicised. The mass protests of the Kashmiris against the Indian authorities are not weakening, and the risk of escalating conflict between India and Pakistan is increasing due to more frequent exchange of fire on the border. It is unlikely that peace in the region could be brought about in the near future. Kashmir will therefore remain a source of internal instability in India, a flashpoint in the conflict with Pakistan, and an increasing problem for EU relations with India.
The European Policy Instruments of the Fourth Orbán Cabinet
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; Prime Minister Viktor Orbán; European policy; foreign policy; European Union; EU migration policy;
The measures taken by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after winning the parliamentary elections in April prove he is choosing new instruments in pursuit of his unchanged European policy strategy. This strategy is based on an attempt to exert a disproportionate amount of influence on the Union in relation to the country’s usual potential by, on the one hand, making itself distinct through confrontational actions and, on the other, by a flexible adaptation to the current political conditions. Orbán benefits from the dispute over EU migration policy, tensions in the European People’s Party (EPP) ahead of elections to the European Parliament (EP) in 2019, and support of U.S. President Donald Trump.
During the Brussels summit, NATO expressed its readiness to develop cooperation with Ukraine, but this will be dependent on domestic reforms in that country. At present, progress in this respect is not sufficient to allow Ukraine to deepen its relations with the Alliance. The Ukrainian authorities should continue introducing changes in the security and defence sector and extend the interoperability of the Ukrainian and NATO armed forces.
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; Turkey; EU’s migration strategy; limiting the flow of migrants; EU-Turkey relations;
A statement signed between the European Union and Turkey in March 2016 has become one of the main pillars of the EU’s migration strategy, essentially limiting the flow of migrants to the EU. In recent months, tensions between Turkey and Greece and other reasons have made implementation of the deal difficult, reflected in an increase in the level of migration on the route from Turkey. Despite these problems, the lack of an agreement between the Member States on intra-EU reform of migration policy means the EU will continue to base its migration strategy primarily on cooperation with countries in its neighbourhood.
Competition and Cooperation: Dualism in Turkey’s Policy Towards Iran
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; policy towards Iran; dualism in Turkish politics; nuclear agreement; Turkish-Iranian relations; competition; cooperation;
Turkish politicians are interested in maintaining cooperation with Iran, but due to serious differences in interests, they still perceive Iran as a rival. That is why Turkey, which has criticised President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran, may be willing to help reduce Iran’s influence in the region. Yet, implementation of this requires overcoming many difficulties in relations between Turkey and the U.S.
Prospects for CEE-China Relations after the Sofia Summit
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe; People’s Republic of China; CEE-China cooperation; China’s investment policy; 16+1 Summit in Sofia;
The context of the 7th “16+1” summit in Sofia indicates that this format of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)–China cooperation is an instrument used by the latter to achieve its main political goals. Through it, China wants to win European allies in its dispute with the U.S. on trade. At the same time, China is trying to reduce the EU's scepticism of China’s investment policy and the 16+1 format. While also facing tensions in relations with the western part of the EU, China intends to maintain sanguine relations with the 16 countries. However, concerns about an improvement in U.S.-Russia ties has China hoping for closer relations with countries from the 16 that cooperate closely with Russia.
Potential Changes in the European Parliament after the 2019 Elections
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; changes in European Parliament; elections; euroscepticism;
Political changes in several of the largest EU Member States (France, Italy, Spain) could weaken the power of the two largest parties in the European Parliament (EP)—the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). Eurosceptics will not, however, take over the chamber.
40 Years Since Deng Xiaoping’s Reforms: The Chinese Economy’s Challenges and Prospects
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; Chinese economy; Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms; opening the market; EU countries cooperating with China;
After four decades of gradually opening the Chinese economy to the world and at the beginning of the Xi Jinping’s second term in office, China’s authorities are announcing deep reforms, including increasing market access for foreign entities. Despite strengthening Xi’s power, one should expect a further, selective opening of the market depending on the strength of Chinese enterprises in specific industries and their development needs. The announcements of the reforms provide an opportunity for the EU to put pressure on improving the situation of companies from Union countries operating in China.
Strengthening European Crisis Response Capabilities: French and British Initiatives
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Intervention Initiative; Joint Expeditionary Force; crisis response capabilities; military response; NATO; transatlantic relations;
The European Intervention Initiative (E2I) proposed by France and UK-built Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) are the largest of the multinational projects aimed at strengthening European crisis response capabilities. Their goal is to shorten the time and increase the effectiveness of a military response in the framework of NATO, EU or coalitions of the willing to threats from different directions. Although JEF and E2I differ from each other, they can strengthen the political cohesion of NATO and the EU as well as transatlantic ties. Therefore, the impact on their development lies is in Poland’s interests.
The United Kingdom: A Centrally Designed Clean Economy
Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; climate policy; economic growth; model for regulatory policies; clean technology; climate regulations; clean economy;
The United Kingdom treats climate policy as an opportunity to accelerate economic growth. This approach is becoming more common both in the EU and globally, and the British strategy combining interventionism with market forces can be a model for regulatory policies in other countries. Poland, which is struggling with the decision to base industrial policy on clean technologies, can benefit from the UK’s experience in combining climate regulations with supporting growth.
The Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary on the Relocation of the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Łukasz Ogrodnik,Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Israel; relocation of the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; international law; diplomacy; Czech Republic; Romania; Hungary;
The Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania blocked a joint EU statement criticising the relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. EU unity against the violation of international law was subordinated by these states to domestic competition for influence and to gain U.S. support. This decision not only weakened the effectiveness of EU cohesion and diplomatic efforts but also caused a deterioration in relations between these countries and part of the Arab world.
Prospects for a Brexit Agreement with the Clock Ticking
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union; Brexit agreement; political framework; no-deal Brexit; procedural issues;
At the halfway point of the Brexit talks, the time pressure is increasing. The European Commission is trying to use the approaching deadline to “soften” the UK’s stance, despite the steadily growing risk of a lack of agreement. Comparing the procedural and political frameworks of both sides, there are two windows of political opportunity for a breakthrough: one in June and the other in November this year. If the parties fail to finalise the deal by then, the most likely solution will be the “no-deal” Brexit.
The Varna Quadrilateral: A New Format for Regional Cooperation
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Varna Quadrilateral; Bulgaria; Greece; Serbia; Romania; coordination of cross-border infrastructure and energy investments; economic cooperation;
Initiated at the end of 2017, the Varna Quadrilateral is a forum for cooperation between Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Romania. It is intended to improve coordination of cross-border infrastructure and energy investments between the largest countries in southeastern Europe. Meetings to date also show that collaboration can have clear political elements. However, a half year after the inauguration of the new initiative, its future is in doubt due to the great differences between its members.
France’s Positions in the MFF 2021–2027 Negotiations
Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; reform of EU budget policy; additional financial resources; high transfers; multiannual financial framework;
France is an advocate of deep reform of EU budget policy. With the UK’s exit from the Union, France seeks to mobilise additional financial resources and transfer funds to areas of new challenges for the Community, such as coping with climate change, mass-migration, or security issues. It also will focus on maintaining high transfers under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
Competition between Regional Powers on the Horn of Africa
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Horn of Africa; competition between regional powers; foreign military bases; transregional conflict;
There is growing competition between regional powers on the Horn of Africa, particularly Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The number of foreign military bases in the region is on the rise and there have already been two instances of serious tension between African allies of these states in 2018. The competitive environment limits the EU’s ability to extend its influence over the region and brings the risk of a transregional conflict.
A Make or Break Moment: Afghanistan Prepares for Key Elections This Fall
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; parliamentary elections; democratization; legitimacy of the government; security of electoral process;
The date of the long overdue parliamentary elections in Afghanistan has been set for 20 October. If they go ahead as planned, the effects of years of international efforts to stabilise the country and build democracy will be visible. An efficient, safe vote will testify to the strength of state institutions and strengthen the legitimacy of the government. On the other hand, the disruption of the elections or undermining the results can cause political chaos and serve the Taliban, seeking to seize power. If requested by the government in Kabul, the U.S., NATO, and the EU should stand ready to support the electoral process, especially in ensuring security.
The Growing Importance of the Philippines in Southeast Asia: Significance for Poland
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Philippines; Southeast Asia; Poland-Philippines cooperation; opening of the Polish embassy in Manila; foreign policy;
The Philippines is one of the most dynamically developing Asian economies and an important security player in Southeast Asia. Poland sees the potential of cooperation with this country, which was indicated by opening of the Polish embassy in Manila in January 2018. It is also worth using other instruments to strengthen relationships, including Poland’s non-permanent membership on the UNSC and the EU-Philippines Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. However, it is necessary to take into account the internal political challenges that the Philippines faces, including corruption, the fight against terrorist organisations, accusations of violating human rights as part of the “war on drugs,” and foreign affairs, mainly concerning relations with China and the United States.
EU Budget Plan for 2021–2027: The European Commission’s Proposals
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; budget plan; long-term EU budget plan; maintaining financial potential; public expenditures;
The draft of EU budgets for the coming years prepared by the European Commission reveal three major goals: The Union is to at least maintain the existing financial potential, the Community level should be strengthened, and consider new objectives in expenditure. Disputes over these ideas between Member States are inevitable and it could be a long way to the final compromise.
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