Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; LNG; Russia's aggression towards Ukraine; Energy alliance; energy transition;
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the resulting collapse of the concept of an energy alliance between Berlin and Moscow, have become the catalysts for Germany to change its approach to building LNG import infrastructure. In order to become permanently independent of Russian supplies, Berlin has made an enormous financial effort to build its own terminals at record speed and on an unprecedented scale. The facilities planned will not only enable Germany to meet its economy’s demand for gas, but will also help it to maintain its role as the gas hub for Central Europe, which has been somewhat weakened recently. They will also allow it to continue to use gas as a transition fuel during the period of the country’s energy transition (Energiewende).
From Popasna to Bakhmut. The Wagner Group in the Russia-Ukraine War
Author(s): Jakub Ber / Language(s): English
Keywords: The Wagner Group; Russia-Ukraine War; Russian mercenary organisation; Popasna; Soledar and Bakhmut;
The Russian mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group was not engaged in the fighting in Ukraine until April 2022, when it turned out that the regular army was unable to breakthrough their opponents’ defences in the Donbas. In May and June, the mercenaries became the ‘assault engine’ of the offensive: they played a key role in capturing Popasna and entering the outskirts of Bakhmut. In the summer, Vladimir Putin decided to turn the Wagner Group into a separate unit operating as part of the Russian troops in Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman and criminal who manages this structure on behalf of the Kremlin, was given a large dose of independence and permission to recruit prisoners en masse. Despite recruiting tens of thousands of criminals into the ranks and receiving comprehensive logistical and material support from the resources of the regular army, the Wagner Group has still failed to capture Bakhmut. However, they have managed to tie down significant enemy forces in this part of the Donbas, and thus prevented their engagement in the offensives near Kherson and in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts. The Wagner Group’s autumn offensives largely contributed to stabilizing the front in what was a critical period for the invaders. It seems that this formation’s combat value and importance as part of the troops engaged in Ukraine will gradually decrease, due to the huge losses suffered by Prigozhin’s mercenaries in the battles of Bakhmut and the exhaustion of the current recruitment model.
Arms deliveries to Ukraine: crossing the red lines
Author(s): Andrzej Wilk,Jacek Tarociński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; War; military support to Ukraine; Western military support;
The scale of the military support that the West has been providing to Ukraine is unprecedented. Both the type of supplies of arms & military equipment and the needs of Ukrainian Armed Forces have been evolving during the course of the war. Just as the conflict can be divided into major phases, one can identify the corresponding political decisions that extended Western arms supplies to Ukraine and crossed the West’s self-imposed red lines. From the beginning of the Russian invasion, Kyiv has clearly defined its needs in terms of arms, military equipment and ammunition. The assistance individual countries have rendered to Ukraine has depended on their military and economic capabilities, as well as their political will.
Education serves the regime. The ideologisation and militarisation of the Belarusian education system
Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarusian education system; legal framework for the education system; military-patriotic education; militarisation of education;
As the Belarusian regime has intensified its policy of repression against society since August 2020,its other domestic policy priorities have come to include an overhaul of the education system and stricter supervision over Belarusian schools. Particularly strong pressure has been put on private institutions which the authorities view as hotspots of anti-state ferment. On the basis of laws enacted in 2022, a requirement was introduced for operators of educational facilities to obtain a special licence to run their schools, which resulted in a significant reduction in the number of private schools. A major overhaul of curricula has also been launched, particularly concerning topics such as history and literature. This is intended to eliminate or marginalize topics which emphasise Belarus’s European identity from school curricula. As a consequence, the content taught to students now resembles the content prevailing in the Russian narrative. Belarus’s politics of memory has been subject to similar attempts to align it with Russian standards.
The EU gas market: revolutionary changes and the spectre of another winter
Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU gas market; The war and the reduced supplies from Russia; Russian LNG imports; rising gas prices;
The European Union survived last winter in a surprisingly effective way. Despite the ongoing gas crisis and Russia’s energy war with the West, there were neither painful shortages of gas or the need to ration it. This was the result of an exceptionally favourable set of circumstances: a warmer winter than usual in Europe and lower gas demand in China, and on the other hand, the actions taken by individual member states and the EU as a whole, as well as changes on the market.2022 saw a revolutionary reshuffle in the directions and routes of gas supplies to the EU. Pipeline supplies from Russia, which used to be the largest source, fell by 56% year-on-year, while LNG supplies from the global market rose by 67%. Liquefied natural gas has become the most important source, and the EU has become the world’s fastest growing market for LNG, despite its long-term goals of achieving climate neutrality and reducing gas consumption. Unexpectedly, and contrary to the earlier assumptions of the European energy and climate policy, the construction of new gas infrastructure, including floating import terminals, has been stepped up. At the same time the EU’s demand for gas fell by a record 60 bcm (or over 13%) last year.
The negotiations currently taking place at the WTO on the suspension of, among others, patent protection for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19, are at a standstill. This creates a risk of widening the rift between developing countries, which mostly support the idea, and some developed countries, which oppose it. It also makes it more difficult to increase the supply of patented items, particularly of vaccines, to an extent undermining other efforts by countries and international organisations to contain the pandemic. It is in the interest of Poland and the EU to overcome this impasse.
President Emmanuel Macron wants the Franco-German tandem to continue to inspire closer European integration. The diversity within the new ruling coalition in Germany and partnerships with other EU countries can make it easier for France to push through its interests in disputes (e.g., energy or budget policy). The durability of the Franco-German partnership will be tested by the presidential and parliamentary elections in France and the support of Olaf Scholz’s cabinet for the priorities of the French presidency of the EU Council.
Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
Since Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in December 2020, Romanian-Moldovan relations have steadily improved. In November 2021 she met for a fourth time with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, signing a “roadmap” of cooperation. Both countries recognise that a linguistic, historical, and cultural community binds them, however the challenge is to move from declarations to the implementation of projects, especially in infrastructure. Romania’s effective involvement in such projects, given its special ties with Moldova, may contribute to the success of its pro-European transformation, which is also supported by Poland.
Germany’s new ruling coalition declares the country’s continued participation in an arrangement on hosting U.S. nuclear bombs, and the replacement of German aircraft to deliver the weapons. Discussion on procurement of the planes might be difficult, however, due to criticism in Germany of nuclear weapons and nuclear sharing by numerous parliamentarians from the coalition parties and possible disputes over the choice of specific aircraft. A delay in the entry into service of the new planes would risk reviving the debate on Germany’s involvement in nuclear sharing.
Evolution of EU Travel Rules During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; travel; COVID-19; pandemic; rules;
The new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the development of the vaccination process in the EU are changing the rules of travel within the territory of the Community. New guidelines on this matter adopted by the Council of the EU in January focus not so much on the country of departure of the traveller as on his/her personal health situation. This more individualised approach is to make it possible to dispense with additional ad hoc travel restrictions imposed by Member States. At the same time, it promotes vaccination, recognising it as essential in fighting the pandemic.
Support for Ukraine in the American Political Debate
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; war; USA; political debate; support;
The growing threat of new Russian aggression has raised the importance of the support for Ukraine in the American political debate. The Biden administration has decided to increase military support for Ukraine, a decision which is supported by most Democrats and Republicans. However, pressure is growing in Congress to further strengthen Ukraine and implement tools to immediately impose sanctions on Russia in the event of a new attack. At the same time, there are voices in both parties warning against American involvement in this crisis. If those views grow more popular, that may hinder the political debate about the U.S. involvement in European security.
Hungary considers the dispute between the West and Russia over renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine is of no concern to it. The government defines its stance from a neutral third party position. It neither condemns Russia’s actions nor supports Ukraine. Past actions indicate Hungary will not veto EU and allied actions against Russia if it would be the only country to break from common positions, however, it will continue to act to the benefit of Russia by trying to weaken Euro-Atlantic structures and impede cooperation with Ukraine.
New Military Doctrine of the Union State of Belarus and Russia
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Belarus; Russia; military doctrine;
In February, a new joint military doctrine for Belarus and Russia was published. Its content reflects the changes that have taken place in recent years both in the perception of threats by Belarus and Russia and in the security policy of the Union State. Both countries will deepen their military, political, and economic integration to counter the alleged dangers posed by NATO. This will require the Alliance to further adjust its deterrence and defence capabilities on its Eastern Flank.
Prospects for the Negotiations of the EU Digital Markets Act
Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; digital market; legislation; negotiations; prospects;
Negotiations of the Digital Markets Act (DMA), one of two flagship EU legislative proposals to regulate online platforms, are entering the decisive phase. France, presiding over the EU Council, wants to bring about an agreement between the states, the European Commission (EC), and the European Parliament(EP) by mid-2022. Adoption of certain EP amendments increasing the obligations of American platforms only may temporarily weaken the cooperation between the EU and United States in the area of digitalisation. Ultimately, however, it will gain momentum in the face of competition from China.
NATO in the Face of Russian Aggression against Ukraine
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; Ukraine; Russia; aggression; war;
The intensification of the threat of Russian aggression against Ukraine has once again revealed differences among NATO allies regarding possible sanctions against Russia and practical support for Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Alliance has maintained its cohesion and has taken measures that may significantly increase the cost of possible aggression. However, it will be a challenge to maintain the unity in the long run, both in the event of Russian attack and the continuous military pressure on Ukraine to force concessions in negotiations with the West.
‘The silence of the lambs’. Russian big business in wartime
Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Russian businesses; War in Ukraine; multi-billion-dollar losses; Vladimir Putin;
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed it have brought multi-billion losses to Russian big business. The magnitude of blows dealt to its main representatives has resulted in a shift in the business model they have applied thus far. Despite these losses, most Russian billionaires, just like Russian society, have tacitly come to terms with Moscow’s aggressive policy. Even those who reside abroad have not ventured to criticise the Kremlin, and instead have focused on adjusting their businesses to the new economic reality. Silence has been their main defensive strategy, enabling them to avoid being targeted by the Russian authorities.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has challenged the security of the countries of NATO's eastern flank on an unprecedented scale. The Baltic states, the Visegrad Group and the Black Sea states are all situated in the neighbourhood of Ukraine or Russia. Due to the invasion, the sense of threat posed by Russia has escalated significantly, although Russia had already been seen as a threat in the region since at least the annexation of Crimea in 2014. All these countries are advocates of strengthening NATO’s collective defence and allied presence on the eastern flank. Most of them are among the top contributors to the political and military support provided to Ukraine. Defence policy and the modernisation of the armed forces have clearly gained priority throughout the region.
The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states
Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Ukraine; agri-food import; Grain imports from Ukraine; Oil seed imports; agricultural production; War in Ukraine;
31 March 2023 saw the publication of a joint letter by the prime ministers of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and the president of Bulgaria, to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on the measures they intended to take to counteract the negative effects of the increased imports of agricultural products from Ukraine to the EU. The document highlights the unprecedented increases in imports of grain, oil seeds, fruit, dairy and honey. It also proposes measures to improve the situation of local agricultural producers, including increasing the financial support offered to them. The authors of the letter emphasise that if the market disruptions cannot be eliminated by other means, tariffs and tariff rate quotas will need to be re-introduced on imports from Ukraine (they were suspended in June 2022). On 7 April 2023, Warsaw and Kyiv reached an agreement on suspending the export of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and rapeseed to Poland until the beginning of the new season (summer), while the transit of Ukrainian produce via Polish territory will be maintained.
Ukraine: a decisive blow to the Moscow Patriarchate?
Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Katarzyna Chawryło (Jarzyńska) / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Moscow Patriarchate; Lavra; UOC-MP; Russian invasion on Ukraine;
29 March 2023 marked the deadline for representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) to leave the Pechersk Lavra monastery complex in Kyiv, which they had been leasing. On 10 March the Ministry of Culture, which formally supervises the shrine, announced the termination of the agreement following a government audit which uncovered numerous irregularities there. Some of the clergy complied with the order, while another group headed by the lavra’s abbot, Metropolitan Pavlo (Lebid), refused. On 1 April, on the basis of a court ruling, the metropolitan was placed under house arrest for 60 days on charges of justifying the Russian attack on Ukraine. However, some monks still remain at the facility.
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