Can the global battle for electromobility pose a threat to Central Europe?
Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English
Keywords: The balance of trade; EU; China’s expansion in the field of electromobility; IRA;
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) adopted in 2022 marks a profound change in the US’s approach to its economic competition with China. This will have global consequences, and will also come to affect Central Europe. Since this document was adopted, Washington has used subsidies to restrict access to the American market as a fully-fledged tool of its industrial policy. This is aimed at blocking the expansion of the Chinese automotive industry in the US and pushing it out of Western companies’ supply chains. As a result, Beijing will most likely utilise its resources to dominate the European market, capitalising on the advantages it already has. The discussion about the European response to the IRA, as well as the growing dependence of German companies on Chinese technologies in the field of electric vehicle production, suggest that Germany and Central Europe are drifting apart as regards the automotive industry, even though they used to have similar interests in this area. German vehicle manufacturers are opposed to imposing restrictions on vehicles made in China on the European market, as they fear retaliation and losing competitiveness. From the Central European perspective, the increasing presence of Chinese electric vehicles (manufactured by both European and Chinese companies) in the EU poses a threat to a key pillar of economic growth. The region has experienced unfair competition from Beijing for years, but it has managed to gain a foothold as a car production hub; its position may be undermined as a result of China’s expansion in the field of electromobility.
Syria’s Assad Regime Using Drug Smuggling as a Political Tool
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Syria; drug smuggling; political tool; regime;
The need to combat drug smuggling from Syria to other Arab countries has contributed to their leaders’ decision to normalise relations with Bashar al-Assad in order to convince him to curb the practice. The dismantling of the Assad-run captagon production and smuggling network is also becoming a priority of Western countries’ Middle East policy due to the increasing flow of the drug into Europe as well.
The electricity market reform proposed by the European Commission (EC) on 14 March is part of a structural response to the energy crisis. It continues the trend of further integration of the European energy market and seeks to provide stable conditions for the development of RES. The legislative proposals is currently being negotiated by the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of the EU. Reconciling the interests of Member States, the electricity sector, investors and consumers remain a challenge. There is little chance that the postulates regarding the extension of the capacity mechanisms, which are important from Poland’s perspective, will be taken into account.
Ukraine has negligible capabilities for missile strikes at ranges greater than 100 km. This gap in Ukrainian offensive systems slows the conduct of counter-offensives and will hinder its strategic isolation of Crimea, as well as defence and deterrence in the future. Filling this gap requires decisions by Ukraine’s main partners on supplying it with, primarily, ATACMS and Taurus missiles.
NATO Vilnius Summit Focused on Ukraine, but Still No Invitation
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; Vilnius summit; Ukraine; enlargement; risk;
Ukraine was not invited to join NATO at the Alliance’s most recent summit, which was supposed to guarantee its accession to the Alliance after the end of the war with Russia. However, it can count on bilateral long-term security commitments from the G7 countries. NATO, for its part, has taken decisions to ensure long-term practical support for Ukraine and to increase its chances for membership. The main challenge for Ukraine will be to convince the Biden administration that NATO enlargement is less risky and less costly than bilateral security commitments.
The consequence of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny will be the seizure of some of his assets by President Vladimir Putin’s trusted people. Prigozhin has carried out many activities useful to the Russian power elite, both in Russia and abroad. Thanks to the Prigozhin-led Wagner Group, Russia has been consolidating its influence on the African continent and enjoying some military success on the Ukrainian front. NATO countries can benefit from the weakening of the Wagner Group, but Poland should also prepare for hybrid actions by the mercenaries from Belarusian territory.
Small Island Developing States: A Strong Interest Group on Climate
Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English
Keywords: SIDS; small islands; developing states; climate;
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are an important and formalised group of interests in international climate negotiations. Although they contribute very little to climate change, they are the most vulnerable to its effects. That is why they urge developed countries to take responsibility for this global problem and to increase financial aid to its victims. Although SIDS face opposition to their position, their consistent lobbying may lead to a modification of perceptions of climate change.
The establishment of a new coalition government in Germany may give rise to greater involvement of the Hungarian government in bilateral relations with France and the French vision of the EU’s development. By working more closely with France, especially in European defence policy, Hungary can counterbalance its weak position in the Union stemming from disputes over the rule of law. At the same time, Hungary can pursue its political goals, such as establishing a new dialogue between the EU and Russia in the current political conditions.
On 5 January, in response to mass anti-government protests, the president of Kazakhstan asked the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) for help. All member states responded positively and the organisation launched its first mission of this kind. For Russia, the mission had significant political and military importance and was an opportunity to demonstrate the CSTO’s potential to conduct military operations in the post-Soviet area.
The largest anti-government protests in Kazakhstan’s history have weakened the stability of the regime and its international position. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used suppression of the demonstrations to seize full power in the state and remove the influence of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been controlling things behind the scenes. He turned to military support from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which will increase Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russia and permanently limit its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy, hampering its relations with the EU and the U.S.
Europe’s dependence on semiconductor imports, mainly from Asia, is increasing. The European Commission plans to commit billions of euros to attract investment in the sector with the aim of doubling the EU’s share of the global semiconductor market to 20% by 2030. The most advanced project is Intel plants likely to be located in Germany, France, and Italy. This will help secure supplies for the EU economy and may make it easier to attract further investors.
Schengen Area: New Measures in Response to the Instrumentalisation of Migration
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: EC; European Commission; Schengen Area; Migration; Instrumentalisation;
The European Commission’s(EC) proposed reform of the Schengen area isto be the EU’s response not only to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic but also to recent attempts to destabilise the Union through forced migration. The envisaged regulations are to enable the Member States directly affected by the instrumentalisation of migration, including Poland, to react more flexibly to emerging crises. Some of the Commission’s proposals may, however, renew the disputes over overall EU migration policy.
Various Visions of Environmental Mainstreaming within the UN
Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English
Keywords: UN; human rights; mainstreaming; environment; climate;
In October last year, the Human Rights Council (HRC) recognised the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment as a human right. There has been no similar progress in other UN bodies. A Security Council (UNSC) resolution on the climate crisis failed two months later on a Russian veto. The next big test for the international community is this year’s planned adoption of the Global Pact for the Environment.
While the French election campaign focuses on internal issues, the most important of them, including fighting the pandemic, the economy, environmental protection, and security issues, relate to the debate over globalisation and European integration. Macron’s policy of strengthening cooperation with partners in the EU and NATO is being criticised by the centre-right candidate Valérie Pécresse or negated by the far-right and far-left. Despite the different views on the future of the EU and the transatlantic partnership, the re-election of Macron seems to be the best scenario for Poland’s interests.
A Green Wave: The Energy and Climate Policy of the New German Government
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: New German Government; Energy Policy; Climate Policy; Green Wave;
The German government intends to accelerate the country’s energy transformation by intensifying the development of renewable energy sources (RES) and moving away from coal and nuclear power. At the same time, the government wants to make the fight against climate change one of its foreign policy priorities, including within the EU and the G7. Germany opposes the construction of nuclear power plants in neighbouring countries, which could become a source of tension in Polish-German relations. Potential fields for cooperation will be hydrogen projects and offshore wind energy.
One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect - a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.
The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; strategy; policy; corruption; international dimension;
The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
At the end of November last year, the Riksdag re-elected Magdalena Andersson from the Swedish Social Democratic Workers' Party (SAP) as prime minister of Sweden, this time in a one-party government. The new government’s foreign policy priorities will not change, but Russia’s aggressive actions of late will prompt Sweden to greater international involvement. This is related, for example, to activities to maintain security in Central Europe, which is in line with the objectives of the Polish OSCE presidency.
The EU’s reaction to Russia’s military build-up along the Ukrainian border has been limited even though the escalation poses a challenge and a threat to European security. France and Germany have been trying to reactivate the Normandy Format, and the EU is supporting Ukraine through financial assistance, including in the field of civilian security. To strengthen its position, the EU should warn Russia that it may introduce financial sanctions that could affect Russian banks, among others, and halt Nord Stream 2.
Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming a priority for ISIS, which seeks to strengthen its potential and propaganda in the region where the terrorist organisation has staged the most attacks in recent months. The increasing ties between Sub-Saharan militant groups and ISIS Central, in conjunction with the weakening military involvement of France in the region, will make it difficult to combat terrorism. It will also increase the threat to European entities in the region, but not Europe itself.
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