Refugees from Ukraine Adapting to the European Labour Market
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; labour market; Ukraine; refugees;
Due to the length of the war in Ukraine, more and more refugees from this country have decided to take up employment in the EU. Preliminary data indicate that they are integrating into European labour markets faster than refugees from other regions. However, the mismatch between their jobs and qualifications remains a challenge. Despite the refugees’ inclusion, the deteriorating economic situation in Europe may lead to negative perceptions in host countries.
The cooperation between China and Russia has strengthened in the face of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the common goal of weakening the West. This was confirmed by Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, which ended on 22 March. Chinese economic and diplomatic support, but also dual-use technologies, makes it easier for Russia to wage war. This increases the need to intensify U.S. and EU efforts in providing assistance to Ukraine and supporting the implementation of the interests of the Global South, which are receptive to the anti-Western message of Russia and China.
The prolonged war in Ukraine, as well as the political and military costs for Russia connected with it, will weaken the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). In turn, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war and Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan disputes revealed a lack of political coherence within the organisation. The CSTO’s decreasing role may prompt the states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus to look for other military partners, such as China and Türkiye. However, it also creates opportunities for closer cooperation with EU countries and the U.S.
One Year After the Invasion: Most Russians Still Back War in Ukraine
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; War; Year after Invasion; Public Opinion;
One year on from the invasion of Ukraine, Russian society is largely supportive of the war, although the authorities are finding it difficult to mobilise citizens. The passivity and adaptability of Russians means that the regime does not have to fear mass protests. The power elite is so far loyal to Vladimir Putin. Although they have been restricted in their ability to earn legally in the West, they are compensating for their losses in the occupied areas of Ukraine. Since Putin does not have to worry about internal problems, he can focus on a long-term confrontation with the West and continue the war against Ukraine.
Realism or Radicalisation: Meloni Walks Fine Line on European Policy
Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Policy; EU; Economic policy; Public Finances; Migration;
Italy’s difficult situation in public finances and the need for EU assistance on migration issues have prompted the right-wing government to pursue a policy of dialogue with EU institutions and key Member States. However, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who heads the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, is under pressure from her League coalition partner and her own electorate to emphasise the Eurosceptic elements of her programme. At the same time, the Italian president and coalition partners from Forward Italy (FI) are vying to keep the country at the centre of European politics. The upcoming European Parliament (EP) elections could upset this delicate balance.
Since the end of January, President Lula’s government has been promoting an initiative of a multilateral dialogue for peace in Ukraine. Its main objectives are a ceasefire and mitigating the adverse socioeconomic effects of the war on developing countries, but also strengthening Brazil’s international position. Lula’s government openly condemns Russia’s aggression but criticizes the sanctions against that country and the military support for Ukraine. It maintains it is neutral in the war but also relativises the Russian responsibility for starting it, which undermines Brazil’s credibility as an impartial mediator.
Chinese Parliament Meets: Xi Gets Third Term, Structural Changes Confirmed
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Parliament; NPC; Xi Jinping; Li Qiang; government; changes;
During the session of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), which ended on March 13, Xi Jinping was elected for a third term as chairman. The delegates approved the new composition and structure of the government, and Li Qiang, the former head of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) in Shanghai, became prime minister. The Chinese authorities are planning to increase the rate of economic growth to about 5% this year and counteract the increase in unemployment among young people. The speeches by Chinese leaders during the session indicate a deepening of the rivalry with the U.S. as well as the strategic dimension of cooperation with Russia.
Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains
Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; economy; business; international relations; supply chains;
Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.
Two EU institutions have put forward proposals for changes to electoral law that aim to improve the electoral process at both the national and European levels. The European Parliament’s proposal envisages, among other things, the election of some candidates to the body from a supranational list common to all Member States. However, the introduction of such changes would require changes to the treaties, which many countries, including Poland, do not agree with. The Commission’s proposals aim, among other things, to introduce greater transparency of political advertising in the Member States.
In recent months, the U.S. has intensified its international efforts to limit China’s ability to produce the most advanced chips. The result includes the introduction by Japan and the Netherlands of restrictions on the export of modern machines for chip production. In response, China is trying to attract foreign investment and develop its own potential in this sector. The U.S. actions may significantly slow the pace of China’s technological development and economic growth and limit its potential to further strengthen its military capabilities. This may make it difficult for China to support Russia with dual-use products and render possible offensive actions against Taiwan harder.
Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer-term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; global influence; relations; security; NATO; USA; EU;
China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
The signing of an agreement on the deployment of non-strategic Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory is the realisation of one of the foreign policy priorities set out by Alexander Lukashenka in deepening the alliance with Russia. Belarus is also developing cooperation with other countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. At the same time, it will continue to pursue a policy that is hostile towards Western countries, especially Poland, and towards Ukraine. Together with increasing military and special services cooperation between Belarus and Russia, this will raise additional challenges for NATO members, especially the Eastern Flank states, in deterrence and defence and building resilience to hybrid threats.
China Trying to Gain Greater Influence in Central Asia
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Central Asia; influence; foreign policy; economy; security;
The China-Central Asia Summit held in Xi’an in May confirmed China’s desire to strengthen its presence in the region at Russia’s expense. Among the reasons is Central Asian states’ scepticism of Russian aggression in Ukraine. At the same time, China’s stronger political and security-sector involvement is expected to confirm its image as bringing stability to the international situation. To balance Russian-Chinese influence in Central Asia, the EU would be advised to accelerate the implementation of investment projects in the region and to intensify, together with the U.S., the dialogue with states there, especially on tightening sanctions against Russia.
The energy crisis has hit businesses and consumers in the EU hard. Member States took remedial action and the European Commission implemented solutions at the Community level. The EU managed to avoid economic collapse and maintain the stability needed to support Ukraine and to face Russia. Further countermeasures will need to be taken this summer to avoid another energy crisis in the winter of 2023- 2024.
Assessing the Potential of North Korean Ammunition and Weapons Deliveries to Russia
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; Russia; weapons; deliveries; ammunition;
Military assistance from North Korea (DPRK) may partially meet Russia’s needs and help it in continuing the war with Ukraine. Its impact on the military situation depends on the continuity, quantity, and quality of supplies of ammunition and weapons. The developing secret military cooperation between the two countries demands the increased attention of Western intelligence services, publicising it on the international stage, and more active countermeasures by Ukraine’s partners.
EP’s Two Largest Parties Again Seek Suitable Partner for After 2024 Elections
Author(s): Tomasz Zając / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; European Parliament; People's Party; Politics;
Europe’s two largest political parties—the European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats - have weakened over the course of the ninth term of the European Parliament, which ends in 2024. If the trends in their support are maintained, the parties will have to do what they did after the 2019 elections and find a partner to form a majority supporting the European Commission. That partner will most likely be the Liberals of Renew Europe (their support in opinion polls has also dropped). However, the declining ratings of the European centre-right have caused the Christian Democrat president to seek allies among the European Conservatives and Reformists as well. However, a coalition of the Christian Democrats, Liberals and Conservatives in the future parliament is unlikely due to internal resistance within the ranks of the first two groups to cooperation with the Conservatives.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
New EU regulations on critical infrastructure could strengthen the resilience of the Member States to hybrid threats from Russia and China. The main challenge, however, will be to develop and implement precise standards for the protection of such infrastructure jointly with NATO. It will be necessary to exchange experience in this regard among states and on the state-private sector line. This may provoke resistance among some Member States reluctant to share sensitive information.
The 20th Congress of the CCP, which begins on 16 October, will take place in the context of growing economic problems and an unfavourable international position for China. In addition to the poor outlook for economic growth and rising unemployment, the PRC is still struggling with a real estate crisis and rising energy costs. Combined with the growing rivalry with the U.S., this is resulting in China’s closer cooperation with Russia. The likely continuation of Xi Jinping’s rule after the congress will intensify these trends. It also implies a radicalisation of China’s attitude towards the EU.
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