Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Rule-of-Law Conditionality; Hungary; EU funds;
The mechanism that makes the payment of funds from the EU budget conditional on compliance with the principles of the rule of law isthe newest instrument for protecting the Union’s financial and political interests. The tool allows the European Commission and the EU Council (Council) to exert influence on Member States that violate the fundamental principles of the Community. Triggering it against Hungary might result in a reduction of EU funds to the country as a consequence of rule-of-law violations for the first time in EU history. It is doubtful, however, that this will lead to systemic changes in Hungary.
In the Jumble of Priorities: French Defence Policy until 2030
Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; defence policy; military policy; strategy; 2030;
President Emmanuel Macron’s outline of the Military Programming Law (LPM) for 2024-2030, presented on 20 January, assumes a nominal 30% increase in spending compared to 2019-2025. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the need to prepare the armed forces for high-intensity combat are cited as the reasons, strengthening French partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean remain an even more important goal. Geographic location, nuclear deterrence, Germany’s Zeitenwende and Poland’s military ambitions mean that the French authorities do not consider the threat from Russia to be immediate.
Türkiye’s Political Scene Prepares for May Elections
Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; May elections; CHP; president; Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; foreign policy;
On 6 March, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, became a presidential candidate, backed by the main opposition parties gathered as the Table of Six. The presidential and parliamentary election campaign will centre on the themes of the recent earthquake, high inflation, and refugees. The results of the 14 May vote will have a decisive impact on the future shape of the Turkish political system. It also will decide the continuation or correction of certain aspects of Türkiye’s foreign policy.
The Hungarian government, although in principle not blocking Allied support for Ukraine, represents a position favouring Russia. This is contrary to the strategic interests of NATO and EU partners, including Poland, and results in a growing loss of credibility of the Hungarian government in these organisations. Therefore, Hungary’s attitude will degrade its position, regardless of the resolution of the war in Ukraine. It may also hinder joint action within NATO and the EU, given their limited influence on the Hungarian government’s decisions.
Israel on a Collision Course: 100 Days of Netanyahu’s New Government
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; government; Benjamin Netanyahu; foreign policy;
The first months since the return to power of Benjamin Netanyahu were marked by a political crisis related to the changes in the Israeli justice system pursued by the coalition and an aggravation of the security situation in the West Bank. The suspension of the controversial changes only temporarily dims a conflict that has led to mass protests and deepening social polarisation. The internal crisis and the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian violence are reducing the effectiveness of the new government’s foreign policy.
EU Smoothly Developing Military Mobility in Europe
Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; military policy; mobility; Europe; Ukraine; Russia; invasion; war;
Democratic states can send military equipment to Ukraine faster thanks to EU military mobility, an initiative aimed at improving the transport of military personnel and assets across the continent. Unified military requirements as well as simplified transport procedures contribute to this. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU updated its directions for the development of military mobility. Implementation of the plans will, however, require increased financial outlays, especially for protecting transport infrastructure and supporting partners such as Ukraine and Moldova.
On 30 March, the Moldovan parliament began work on a package of bills reforming the Security and Intelligence Service. This is an element of the pro-European government’s response to Russia’s destabilisation of the country. In February, President Maia Sandu accused Russia of attempting an armed coup in Chişinău. However, the imminent threat of this is contradicted by the appointment of new prime minister Dorin Recean, the former interior minister, in mainly an image-related move. It is in the interest of Poland to strengthen the stability of Moldova a sit will contribute to the security of the Eastern Flank of the EU and NATO, as well as guard Ukraine from the rear.
President Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy, including in particular aid to Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific strategy, flows from an identical diagnosis with key NATO and EU allies of the international situation and threats. However, France’s actions are accompanied by the head of state’s rhetoric indicating the need to guard against unconditionally following U.S. policy and seeking a role for France and the EU as an independent actor and a “balancing power”. These statements, although partly conditioned by domestic policy needs, undermine France’s credibility and evoke associations with the concept of multipolarity and spheres of influence promoted by authoritarian powers.
How the War in Ukraine Impacts NATO Policy in the Black Sea Region
Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; Ukraine; war; Russia; Black Sea Region; policy;
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased the strategic importance of the Black Sea region for the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank. The activity of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, energy blackmail, and blocking of sea lines of communication pose a threat to the Alliance and its partner states (Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia). Although NATO’s ability to operate in the Black Sea is limited by the Montreux Convention, the Alliance can enhance deterrence credibility by increasing its military presence in the region and expanding cooperation with partners.
At the summit in Japan on 19-21 May, G7 leaders, with President Volodymyr Zelensky attending in person, reaffirmed strong and long-term support for Ukraine in the fight against the Russian invasion. In addition, the Group wants to build stable relations with China while concurrently limiting interdependence, reduce nuclear arms, and regulate artificial intelligence. The G7 has presented unity regarding the main international issues and strives for cooperation with other countries concerning, for example, the war in Ukraine and strengthening global supply chains.
Negotiations of a free trade and investment protection agreement between the European Union and India are unlikely to be finalised by the end of this year as hoped for. The challenge in completing them is the different economic goals, as well as the upcoming elections in the EU and India. A deal between the world’s third- and fifth-largest economies, respectively, would bring substantial benefits to both parties, not only economic but also strategic ones. Companies from the EU, including Poland, should not wait for the agreement to be approved and should try to step up their presence on the Indian market by taking advantage of reforms already introduced by the Indian government.
The Russian nuclear energy sector continues to develop after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exports of nuclear technology bring direct revenues to the state corporation Rosatom, which actively supports the war. That is why a group of EU countries (including Poland) proposed to put sanctions on the Russian nuclear energy sector. Efforts to phase out nuclear fuel from Russia in the EU are also progressing. Providing alternative sources of uranium enrichment and fuel production capacity is possible, but will be time consuming and costly.
EU-South Korea Extend Cooperation Beyond the Economy
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; South Korea; Economy; Cooperation;
The 10th EU-Republic of Korea Summit, held on 22 May in Seoul, reaffirmed the importance of South Korea as a critical Asian partner of the Union. The meeting also signalled the growing importance of security issues in bilateral relations. South Korea shares the EU’s assessment of Russian aggression against Ukraine and intends to continue to support the invaded country, but not with supplies of military equipment for now. The announcement of a “green” partnership indicates both sides’ willingness to engage in other areas of cooperation, which also will benefit the development of Polish-South Korean relations.
The EU Partnership Mission in Moldova was launched in May 2023. Its aim is to protect the country from hybrid attacks by Russia conducted in parallel to its aggression against Ukraine. The mission provides strategic advice to Moldova’s pro-European authorities - the government of Dorin Recean from President Maia Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). This complements the efforts of the EU and Member States in supporting the capacities of the Moldovan civilian security structures and armed forces. Such broad engagement will increase Moldova’s overall resilience to Russia’s actions and contribute to stabilising the EU’s eastern neighbourhood.
Examining Changes in Regional Cooperation in Central Europe from a Polish Perspective
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Europe; Poland; regional cooperation; foreign policy;
The Visegrad Group (V4), until recently the most active and multidimensional cooperation platform in Central Europe, does not serve currently to strengthen the voice of the region on the most essential issues concerning its security. This is because Hungary’s stance on Russia’s attack on Ukraine is different than that of its partners. That is why Poland is tightening relations with the other Visegrad countries - Czechia and Slovakia. At the same time, Poland is also intensifying cooperation with the Baltic states, which has its source in joint actions on security and eastern affairs in the years preceding the war.
India’s commissioning of its second aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, in September this year reaffirms the country’s aim to play a leading role in the Indo-Pacific. The country’s importance in the region will depend mainly on the course of the India-China rivalry, an increase in its economic potential, and the support provided to it by foreign partners. The convergence of goals in the Indo-Pacific strengthens India’s partnership with the U.S. and opens up opportunities for intensifying cooperation with the EU, especially in terms of connectivity, climate change, and the development of capacity in maritime domain awareness.
Gauging the Potential of Heavy Weapons Deliveries For Ukraine from the Middle and Far East
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Middle East; Far East; Heavy Weapons; potential;
Russia’s continuation of the war in Ukraine and partial mobilisation suggest it is prepared for a prolonged conflict. These actions also imply the increased need for continued deliveries of heavy weapons and artillery munitions for Ukraine. In light of the shrinking capabilities of the Central Europeans and limits of the production capacities of Western defence industry (including the U.S.), there is a necessity for additional sources of deliveries. These gaps might be filled by U.S. allies and partners in the Middle and Far East.
Although the right-wing coalition that won the Italian parliamentary elections on 25 September includes parties previously declaring Eurosceptic ideas or rejecting the transatlantic partnership, the joint programme statement implies support for Italy’s membership of the EU and NATO. In European politics, the priority will be to seek EU support to combat economic problems and to ease the demands for speeding up public debt reduction. The differing foreign policy visions of the coalition parties, which were covered up during the campaign, may in time become a hotbed of conflict between them.
Japan is stepping up efforts to increase its economic security. In August, some new regulations came into force aimed at strengthening, among others, the resilience of supply chains and developing technological potential. Japan is thus responding to the challenges of China’s policy, the U.S.-China rivalry, and global technological progress. Improving economic security will require the government to cooperate with both Japanese business and international partners, including the U.S. and the EU.
Türkiye Aims to Join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; China; Shanghai; cooperation;
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once again declared his intent to join Turkey to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Erdoğan's earlier announcements in 2012 and 2016 did not lead to membership in the organisation. The declaration aims to mobilise conservative-nationalist voters and serves as a diplomatic tool towards Russia and Western countries.
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