Despite the close and multi-sector cooperation and ideological proximity of presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron, the U.S. and France have been unable to reconcile their differences in approach to key economic issues in transatlantic relations. The dispute over protectionism and their different positions in selected economic areas will burden bilateral relations in the coming years, threatening the stability of relations between the U.S. and the EU. Although the adoption of similar subsidies as the U.S. by the EU in the single market may be beneficial for Poland, the desire of individual countries to subsidise their own economies will cause internal tensions within the EU.
Western and other states’ restriction of imports of Russian oil and sanctions on its oil trade had little impact on Russia’s budget revenues in 2022. This was because Russia found new customers for its crude, mainly in Asia. The effects of the restrictions only started to become apparent from the beginning of this year, but without a further, significant reduction in this source of income, Russia’s ability to fund its aggression against Ukraine will not be weakened. The best way to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions would be to further reduce the price ceiling on Russian oil and take steps to increase the oil supply on the global market from alternative sources.
The sanctions imposed on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine were unlikely to cause an immediate collapse of the economy. However, they have affected Russian supply chains and harmed its industry, including the defence sector. The sanctions also have curbed revenues from the export of energy resources that facilitate financing of the war. In the medium term, sanctions may bring the expected results and, therefore, it is advisable not only to maintain them and ensure their correct application but also to tighten them.
The Marathon of Strikes in France Hit President Macron’s Pension Reform
Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: France; Macron; economy; pensions; public finances; reform;
After two months of parliamentary work, the French government adopted a draft reform - without a vote in the National Assembly - raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. The law met with strong public opposition and a firm reaction from trade unions. Although the reform is necessary to improve the condition of public finances, the actions of the government and the lack of dialogue with the protesters have sparked an internal crisis and weakened the political position and confidence of the French in President Emmanuel Macron.
Saudi Arabia’s Agreement with Iran Signals Policy Shift
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Iran; foreign policy; China; USA;
The main motivation for the Saudi authorities to reach an agreement with Iran was the desire to reduce tensions in the Persian Gulf to facilitate the diversification and strengthening of the Saudi economy. China’s involvement in the talks is a further sign of the deteriorating relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The monarchy will use its relations with China to strengthen its position in international relations and to discourage the West from criticising its policies.
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Japan; South Korea; foreign policy; relations;
On 16-17 March, President Yoon Suk-yeol visited Tokyo where he met with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. The first visit of a South Korean president to Japan in more than 11 years was to resolve historical, political, and economic disputes. The lifting of trade restrictions and the tightening of security cooperation between both U.S. allies strengthens the United States in its competition with China. However, a lasting improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan will be hindered by the scale of the still unresolved problems and lack of South Koreans’ support for Yoon’s conciliatory policy.
The recent wave of protests in Iran is subsiding, decisively pacified by the security forces and lacking the emergence of opposition leaders. Because there is little chance that the authorities will implement any significant reforms, the conditions for another anti-system rebellion will remain in Iran. The need to strengthen and stabilise the Iranian regime will encourage it to further broaden partnerships with China and Russia.
Keywords: South Africa; Russia; foreign policy; relations; international law;
Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
Germany’s hesitation regarding military aid for Ukraine and its different perception of cooperation with China make it difficult to rebuild the strategic partnership with the U.S., weakened by the Trump presidency. Differences of interest will not degrade Germany’s position as the key military and political partner for the U.S. in Europe in the near future. For other regional American allies, including Poland, it is important that in the short term U.S.-German differences of opinion do not disrupt aid to Ukraine and, in the long term, do not result in a reduction in the presence of U.S. troops in Europe.
Russia Turns Towards Eurasia in New Foreign Policy Concept
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Vladimir Putin; foreign policy; Eurasia;
Vladimir Putin approved a new Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation at the end of March this year. Like in the previous version of the document from 2016, Russia takes a negative view of Western policy and emphasises the rise of use of force in international relations. Russia accuses the West of hegemony and declares a permanent turn towards Eurasia. New in the document is the possibility for Russia to use its military to defend its citizens outside its borders.
States Successfully Conclude Negotiations of the High Seas Treaty
Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English
Keywords: High Seas Treaty; UN states; biodiversity; pollution; ocean;
After two decades of discussions, UN states have completed work on a treaty on the conservation of ocean biodiversity, allowing the creation and management of protected areas in international waters. The agreement can help counter climate change, biodiversity loss, and ocean pollution. However, its real impact on the environment will depend on swift ratification and subsequent effective implementation.
The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Arab Persian Gulf States; West; China; Technology; Influence;
New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.
Spain Strives to Boost the EU’s Relations with Latin America and the Caribbean
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Spain; relations; Latin America; Caribbean;
The Spanish government cites the deepening of the European Union’s partnership with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) among the main objectives of its presidency of the Council of the EU, which begins on 1 July this year. The first summit of heads of state and government of both regions since 2015, scheduled for 17-18 July in Brussels, is the main point on that agenda. The deficit of mutual interest between EU and LAC states and differences over trade liberalisation and Russian aggression against Ukraine are just some of the challenges in strengthening the bi-regional partnership. The recent decision of the Spanish authorities to call snap parliamentary elections on 23 July will complicate the presidency’s plans.
The failures of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine have intensified disputes between Russian army leaders and the Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group. Wagner has so far been useful in the fighting on difficult sections of the frontline in Ukraine, but it also has served the authorities by securing income and influence in Africa and the Middle East. Now, Vladimir Putin is diminishing Prigozhin’s achievements in Ukraine to prevent him from building an independent political position.
Keywords: Autonomous Weapons; Regulation; International Law; Humanitarian Law;
The prospects for banning the development and use of autonomous weapons are currently dim, and international negotiations on regulating these processes have been at a standstill for several years. However, there is nothing to prevent existing international humanitarian law and norms on international responsibility from being applied to the use of these weapons. It would be advisable, though, for this possibility to be confirmed by as many states as possible, providing a common interpretation of the existing rules in a new context.
Russian threats increase the risk of nuclear weapons being used against Ukraine, but it still appears to be remote. Such an attack most likely would be preceded by more direct signals than Putin’s ambiguous warnings. Although such a strike would not guarantee a Russian victory, Putin might still order it in an act of desperation. To counter this risk, Russia must be convinced that a nuclear attack on Ukraine will trigger a strong international response, including conventional military intervention by the U.S. and its allies.
Russia Attempts Blackmail with Occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Zaporizhzhia; Ukraine; power plant; occupation;
Russia is trying to use the fear of a nuclear disaster at the Enerhodar power plant to reduce the scale of Western support for Ukraine and force it to accept unfavourable conditions for a possible ceasefire. The international community should adopt a two-track approach to counter this attempt. On the one hand, efforts should be made to increase the safety of the power plant by establishing a “safety and security protection zone” around it and, on the other hand, coordinate information activities to clearly indicate that Russia is solely responsible for the risk of nuclear catastrophe.
Sanctions Against Russia: EU Seeks Coordination to Limit Circumvention
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Russia; sanctions;
The Russian authorities are constantly trying to circumvent EU economic restrictions. They use various methods of concealing trade in sanctioned goods, especially crude oil, including through companies from non-EU countries. The challenge for the EU is how to minimise these practices, which are facilitated by the differences between the Member States in detecting and pursuing such infringements. The Union should adopt common standards in this area as soon as possible. In coordination with the G-7, the EU could also add foreign companies participating in the circumvention schemes to sanctions lists.
National Security Strategy: U.S. Focuses on Relations with Asia and Europe
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Europe; Asia; national security; strategy;
The latest U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) points to the crucial importance of the Asia-Pacific region for U.S. interests and the stability of the international order. At the same time, one of the messages of this key document is reassurance of European allies regarding the American commitment to NATO and Euro-Atlantic security. The strategy traditionally puts an emphasis on the need for Europeans to strengthen the Alliance’s conventional capabilities.
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