The Republicans fared worse in the midterm elections than expected, but they managed to take over the House of Representatives. Now, they can block some of President Joe Biden’s initiatives, but not foreign policy to a great extent. While there have been examples of bipartisan collaboration in the past two years, the Republicans have already announced House-led investigations into the Biden administration’s actions, which will make it difficult to reach compromise. The first two years of Biden’s presidency may turn out to be the time of his greatest achievements in domestic politics.
The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing
Author(s): Aleksandra Maria Spancerska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; foreign policy; Istanbul bombing; Kurdish question;
On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.
The leaders of EU Member States and ASEAN met in Brussels on 14 December for the first ever summit of the two organisations. They announced a decision regarding the EU’s involvement in the development of infrastructure in ASEAN countries and confirmed their will to implement a joint action plan for 2023- 2027. However, there were discrepancies regarding the participating states’ approaches to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which shows the limitations of bilateral cooperation on global issues.
Extraordinary by-elections in the north of Kosovo scheduled originally for 18 and 25 December of this year are now not due to take place until 2023. Both the original announcement and the postponement of the elections are iterations of the ongoing Serbia-Kosovo dispute. It was exacerbated by Kosovo’s progress in European integration, including its 15 December application for EU membership, and Serbian favouritism of Russia in its war with Ukraine. Failure to effectively resolve the dispute increases the risk of destabilisation in the Balkans, including in connection with this war.
Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.
In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.
More than a year after the announcement of the EU Indo-Pacific strategy, the effects of its implementation are limited. The preparation of new financial instruments and initiatives has been hampered by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which pulled away the attention of EU institutions. The war highlighted the need to prioritise geographical and thematic Union policies. It is in the EU’s interest to focus on the Indian Ocean area and economic issues where it has competences and tools for action. EU involvement should be coordinated with key partners in the region, leading to complementarity of their initiatives.
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Peru; foreign policy; politics; crisis; Pedro Castillo;
On 7 December, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo was arrested following his unsuccessful attempt at autogolpe - an unconstitutional takeover of full power by an incumbent head of state. The parliament, immediately voted to remove him and appointed Vice President Dina Boluarte to the highest office, which sparked violent riots by Castillo’s supporters. Bringing general elections forward by two years, to April 2024, is aimed to overcome this new stage of the political crisis that has afflicted Peru in the last few years. Foreign reactions of support for the new government prevailed, but tensions are visible in Peru’s relations with supporters of Castillo, including Mexico.
The actions undertaken by the EU in relation to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine require considerable funding. An increase in the community budget, as advocated by the European Parliament, is, however, unlikely chiefly due to resistance from the countries that are net payers. Consequently, the EU will attempt to reprioritise funds within the budget and modify the plans for spending from the recovery fund. In the absence of consensus on new sources of revenue for the community, the likelihood of resorting to common borrowing for the purpose of new undertakings is low.
What is the Probable Impact of Trump's Legal Problems on His Candidacy?
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Donald Trump; legal problems; candidacy;
Former U.S. President Donald Trump faces charges in four criminal cases but is nonetheless the leading candidate seeking the Republican Party’s nomination ahead of the 2024 presidential election. One or more guilty verdicts in the individual cases would carry serious legal consequences - including potentially imprisonment - but will not formally prevent him from running for or even taking office. Hoping to win election, Trump is likely to seek to drag out the cases to gain immunity.
Despite the intensification of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, no breakthrough has been achieved. The leaders of the countries, respectively, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, declare their willingness to reach an agreement, but have not come to terms on any major issue. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, guarantees for Karabakh Armenians, and the course of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border remain unresolved, raising fears of a renewed war.
Along with the digitisation of the economy, the amount of produced data has increased dynamically. The European Commission (EC) wants to stimulate data usage and sharing between enterprises, citizens, and the public sector in the EU. Creating a “data single market” aims at increasing innovation and economic growth in conditions of extensive international competition. The main challenge is achieving the EU’s ambitions of becoming independent from American cloud service providers and growing European enterprises’ share in the data market.
On 10 December, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the dialogue with the United States and other Western countries regarding security guarantees. The statement has an accusatory and provocative tone, and in it Russia makes a number of demands on the “collective West”. Poland can support the diplomatic efforts while also indicating that entering into negotiations with Russia on the terms it proposes would be detrimental to European security.
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Japan; foreign policy; Kishida Fumio;
The government of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, formed on 10 November, will continue the foreign policy of his predecessors Abe Shinzō and Suga Yoshihide. In response to China’s regional policy, Japan intends to develop its military potential and deepen cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, including European, in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Kishida will strive for stable relations with China and trade liberalisation in the region out of Japan’s own economic interest. The new government’s focus on the country’s internal socioeconomic problems will be conducive to maintaining the current course in foreign policy.
The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America
Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latin America; energy; economy; policy;
The energy transition in Latin American countries is increasingly important for their economic development and the fight against climate change. These states want to use their potential of renewable energy sources (RES) and raw materials such as lithium deposits to attract investments and increase their participation in global supply chains building the low-carbon economy. The EU and its Member States - Germany in particular - have been more and more involved in cooperation with the region in these areas. Poland can also benefit, for example, through the exchange of experience and the engagement of Polish companies.
Prospects for the Development of the “3+3” Format on the South Caucasus
Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English
Keywords: South Caucasus; development; foreign policy;
On 10 December, the inaugural meeting of the “3+3” format was held in Moscow. The initiative is meant to be a new formula for regional cooperation and it includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with Russia, Turkey, and Iran, although Georgia is boycotting it. The interests of the other countries in the format reflects deeper tendencies in their regional policy given the new status quo after the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. The project is a manifestation of Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s desire to limit U.S. and EU influence in the South Caucasus. Georgia’s participation could be a key factor that determines the effectiveness of the format, which is why the U.S. and the EU should counteract the initiative by strengthening cooperation with Georgia.
The draft treaties with the U.S. and NATO published by Russia on 17 December contain proposals to limit the American and allied presence and military activity in the Russian neighborhood. Most of them are not new and have already been rejected. If now they become an impulse for dialogue with Russia, they could weaken the Alliance. Possible negotiations of regional instruments (regarding the Eastern Flank) of arms control and disarmament may lead to stopping or even withdrawing the process of NATO’s adaptation to the threat from Russia.
Ahead of the CCP’s 20th Congress, Changes in Personnel and Xi’s Historical Role
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; CCP; Congress; Xi Jinping;
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is preparing for its congress in the fall of 2022 when Xi Jinping is to be re-elected secretary-general and his proteges become members of the most important bodies of the CCP. To prepare for this, the party is carrying out personnel changes in the provinces and party apparatus, strengthening Xi’s image as guarantor of China’s development, and maintaining confrontational rhetoric in its foreign policy, especially on Taiwan and human rights.
Immediately after the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced a new coronavirus “variant of concern” called omicron on 26 November, more than 50 countries blocked travel to and from South Africa and neighbouring countries. WHO, African states, and the UN Secretary-General have accused the rich northern states of the selective use of inadequate measures that harm southern countries. To end the pandemic, it will be necessary to reduce the growing discrepancy between the northern and southern states through a solidarity-based approach to the fight against COVID-19.
Keywords: EU; labour; workers; digital platform; protection;
The European Commission (EC) has proposed a directive that provides protection of people performing work for digital platforms, especially in professions that do not require specialist qualifications. If the proposal is accepted in the shape presented by the EC, it will be a breakthrough solution on a global scale that adjusts labour law to the challenges of the digital economy. It will also strengthen the EU’s position in relations with platforms.
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