The entry into force of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement, negotiated in June 2019, has been delayed further. The Union is conditioning ratification of the deal on an additional agreement on sustainable development because of its reservations about Brazil’s policy in this area. The situation is complicated by the divergence in Mercosur regarding the bloc’s development course, especially in the face of the economic difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The delay in ratification erodes the EU’s position in the region and the possibility of the deal as a counterweight to China - Mercosur’s main trading partner.
The EU wants to use the election of a new U.S. president to seek an improvement in bilateral economic relations that would go beyond settling trade disagreements and also involve the Union’s priorities - climate policy and the digital transition. Shared interests in relation to China, the president-elect’s intention to strengthen the transatlantic bond, and his ambitions on climate create favourable conditions for cooperation. Regulations regarding American companies that dominate the digital sector, along with the U.S. deficit in bilateral trade will remain a source of contention.
On 11 December 2020, a new Lithuanian government was sworn in. It is formed of the conservative Union of the Homeland–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and two liberal parties. The differences within the coalition, including on the economy, will be a challenge, however, there are no fundamental differences in the external dimension. Lithuania will focus on the alliance with the U.S. and on European politics. The government has announced actions in the eastern dimension and in strengthening cooperation in the Baltic Sea region. Poland will remain an important partner for Lithuania, but the intensity of the cooperation to date may be limited.
Fearing China’s global dominance in the field of information and communications technology (ICT), including high-capacity 5G telecommunications networks, and the country’s access to new markets, in August 2020 the U.S. launched the Clean Network Initiative (CN). The coalition of states, institutions, and companies participating in it aims to prevent Chinese ICT from dominating the economies of America’s allies. The U.S. may determine the future level of cooperation with allies on the degree of saturation of their economies and infrastructure with Chinese technologies.
A New Leader and Challenges: CDU before the Election of the Party Chair
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: CDU; Germany; politics; elections;
The goal of the new CDU chair will be to ensure a victory in this year’s federal elections and high results in the federal elections. However, the long-term challenge will be to consolidate the Christian Democrats and define the party’s ideological profile. Deviation to the right from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centrist course may lead to greater polarisation of the German political scene and make it difficult to build a new federal government.
Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK; Russia; foreign policy; security;
The UK has a two-pronged policy towards Russia: deterrence and containment, and limited dialogue. The improvement of relations is hampered by divergent positions on the war in eastern Ukraine and the crisis in Belarus, as well as Russia’s aggressive actions such as the chemical attack on British territory and cyberattacks. The UK will continue to insist on respect for international law, which will be a condition of any change in its position towards Russia. It is in Poland’s interests to work closely with the British, for example in increasing the defence capabilities of NATO’s Eastern Flank.
Perspectives on the Future of U.S.-India Relations during Biden’s Presidency
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; India; foreign policy; economy;
The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden is likely to continue U.S. policy of deepening the strategic partnership with India. The growing international importance of the world’s largest democracy, and especially the similarities in assessments of China’s policy, make it a key U.S. partner in Indo-Pacific. Possible tensions around, for example, India’s observance of human rights and democratic standards should not jeopardise the bilateral cooperation, which is based on a convergence of strategic and economic interests. This creates favourable conditions for strengthening Poland’s relations with India and will facilitate joint initiatives by the EU, the U.S., and India.
Keywords: NATO; security; military policy; strategy; China; foreign policy;
During the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on 2–3 December 2020, a group of experts presented the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” about strengthening the political dimension and consultation mechanisms of the Alliance. The report indicates a possible consensus on the expansion of the Alliance’s tasks, including on a common policy towards China. The document increases the chances that the allies will decide to start work on a new NATO strategy.
The French government hopes that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) concluded on 24 December 2020 between the EU and the United Kingdom will open a new chapter in bilateral relations. Although the two countries may differ in trade competition and their visions of transatlantic relations, the UK is an indispensable partner of France in global politics and world security. With Brexit, discussions about the future of the EU will no longer significantly burden British-French relations.
Towards Implementation of the Recovery Fund: Portuguese Presidency of the EU Council
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Portuguese presidency; EU council; recovery fund; implementation;
The Portuguese presidency’s key goal will be to secure EU Council approval of national recovery plans. This will enable the Member States to receive grants from the pandemic-related recovery fund. In addition, Portugal will conduct negotiations of legal acts crucial for the future of the EU on climate policy, the digital market, migration, and common agricultural policy. In its programme, the presidency emphasises the necessity to share the burden of planned actions fairly.
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Biden; USA; policy; COVID-19;
The Biden administration is expected to take decisive action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, including stimulation of the economy. For this reason, in the first months of this presidency, Biden will focus the government’s activities on domestic issues, including implementing a new pandemic strategy and funding another stimulus package. In terms of the international fight against the pandemic, Biden has already retracted the notice of the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO. The administration also announced that it will join the international vaccine initiative COVAX.
The continuing crisis in government has led to the dissolution of the Knesset and early parliamentary elections in Israel, the fourth in the last two years. Polls do not reveal any possible coalition variants, which increases the possibility for further elections in autumn. This scenario favours Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose position is strengthened by the effective vaccination campaign against COVID-19 and the normalisation of relations with Gulf states.
No Rush: Germany’s Attitude towards the Enlargement of the Euro Area
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Germany is cautious about boosting the eurozone enlargement process, pointing to economic weakness or a lack of political will on the part of the candidates. A more important reason, however, may be the intention to complete the reforms of the currency area - not easily reconciled with enlargement. Germany’s calculations are also influenced by the belief that after Brexit, the division of the EU into the euro area and countries sceptical about deepening integration ceases to be significant politically.
Sadyr Japarov, the leader of the autumn protests that led to the removal from power of the previous president, Soronbai Jeenbekov, won the early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan on 10 January. In a parallel consultative referendum, voters supported the change of the state system to the presidential system proposed by Japarov, which includes the liquidation of parliament. One consequence may be the evolution of the political system of Kyrgyzstan towards an authoritarian model similar to those in other Central Asian countries. That would have a negative impact on relations with the EU, which supports democratic reforms in Kyrgyzstan.
The projected victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the upcoming national parliamentary elections heralds the second independence referendum in a decade. The divergent and sometimes mutually excluding policies of Brexit and pandemic implemented by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative UK government and the SNP’s Scottish government under the leadership of Nicola Sturgeon are the key contexts for the coming election campaign. After the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the EU on 24 December 2020 and the commencement of mass coronavirus vaccinations, Johnson’s priority is to reintegrate the British union. For Poland, it is essential that the United Kingdom maintains political stability and credibility as an ally.
The Greens’ election success and public opinion polls indicate that the party has a chance to increase its representation in regional authorities and to join the federal government after the elections in 2021. This scenario may be helped by the adoption of a new political programme aimed at winning centrist voters. Co-creation of the government by the Greens could contribute to the tightening of Germany’s policy towards Russia and greater readiness to deepen European integration.
During a meeting in Moscow on 11 January, the representatives of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan discussed the situation after the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. The peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation located in NK remains the guarantor of the cessation of the fighting. The practice of Russian conciliation so far differs from that of UN peacekeeping operations and strengthens Russia’s military position in the region. A challenge for it will be Turkey’s growing ambitions in the South Caucasus, as well as the lack of an agreed status for NK, which in the future may lead to the resumption of military operations in this territory.
The political crisis in Moldova is dragging on. It was triggered by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists (PSRM) to make it more difficult for pro-European President Maia Sandu, sworn in in December 2020, to exercise power. Her demands to fight corruption confront the interests of the Socialists’ leader and former president, Igor Dodon. On his way out, PSRM voted in a package of obstructive bills and the Ion Chicu cabinet resigned. This was to deepen the state crisis and force a demonstration of ineptitude on Sandu’s part, which PSRM hopes translates into victory over her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in possible early parliamentary elections.
The expected deterioration of bilateral political relations with Joe Biden as president will not weaken the permanent elements - defence and economic cooperation - of U.S. policy towards Hungary. The new administration will maintain pressure on Hungary because of the latter’s tightening relations with Russia and China. However, the U.S. will not have effective instruments of influence, similar to previous administrations.
The EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI), which was concluded in principle on 30 December 2020, will not significantly improve the situation of EU companies in China. The market opening announced by China is far from reciprocal and the provisions of the agreement are devoid of effective verification mechanisms. Possible ratification of the agreement, however, will limit the effectiveness of the EU in competing with China and will hamper cooperation with the U.S. in this regard. The benefits for Polish companies from CAI will be limited, also in the context of their participation in global supply chains.
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