Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
The ongoing pandemic has increased the use of digital technologies and intensified the threats they pose. Therefore, the EU faces the need to strengthen its ability to detect and respond to hostile cyber activities. New initiatives should, above all, improve the cooperation of EU institutions with Member States and private entities. However, their effectiveness will be limited by low and dispersed financing.
Although nuclear energy is one of the leading branches of French industry, its development prospects remain unclear. This is due to divergences in opinion about the shape of the French energy sector after the energy transition, technical problems of the European Pressurised Reactor (EPR), and difficulties in adjusting to EU competition rules. Failure to address these issues could adversely affect the credibility of France’s offer for exports of civil nuclear technology.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bulgaria; elections; National Assembly; GERB;
On 12 May, President Rumen Radev dissolved the National Assembly, elected a month earlier, and scheduled new elections for 11 July. Anti-establishment parties may do even better then the last elections in April when their success interrupted a decade of rule by the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. GERB’s credibility continues to decline as a result of disclosed abuses and U.S. sanctions on oligarchs associated with it. If the new parties form a stable coalition, they may undertake reforms to bring Bulgaria closer to membership in the Schengen area, which issupported by Poland.
Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU: AI; regulation;
The proposed regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) on the EU market is primarily intended to protect fundamental rights and values. As the first regulation of this type in the world, it may set the standard. However, the new requirements in practice might hinder the access of foreign entities to the internal market and reduce the competitiveness of EU businesses.
On 13 June, a coalition formed of eight opposition parties won a vote of confidence in the Knesset. This marks the loss of power by Benjamin Netanyahu, who was replaced as prime minister by Naftali Bennett. The new cabinet has a slim parliamentary majority and includes parties with a very diverse ideological profile, which will reduce its effectiveness and stability. In matters of security, the government will maintain the current policies, and in foreign affairs it will pursue an improvement in relations with the Biden administration and the EU.
The Central Five: Wrapping Up the Forum’s First Year
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Five; Forum; first year; C5; V4;
The cooperation platform Central Five (C5), involving the ministers of foreign affairs of Austria, Czechia, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Hungary, launched in June 2020, was intended to improve coordination related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual functioning of the Central Five shows, however, that the cooperation has been extended to new topics and partners in the “C5+” formula. It is in Poland’s interest that the issues discussed within the Central Five become the subject of closer consultations in the Visegrad Group, and that Czechia, Slovakia, and Hungary are not involved in the work of the C5 at the V4’s expense.
Japan is updating and strengthening the political dimension of its cooperation with the countries of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It was prompted by China’s growing involvement in the Balkans and the EU’s preparation of its Indo-Pacific strategy. In both cases, Japan counts on the support of the V4, which would benefit from tightening multidimensional cooperation with an Asian partner that does not raise objections in the EU. However, the V4 members’ inconsistent approaches to China may undermine the coordination of the political dialogue between Japan and the Visegrad states, although it is unlikely to have a negative impact on economic cooperation.
The Lithuanian government has announced increased security activities related to its desire to improve the country’s defence capabilities and various responses to new conditions, which include the change of U.S. president, EU defence policy, and Russia’s actions against Belarus and Ukraine. The intensification of Lithuania’s security efforts has the potential to strengthen the bilateral cooperation with Poland.
The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey - after the EU and the U.S. - one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.
Over the past few months, Belarus and Russia have stepped up talks on the conditions for further integration. Russia wants to take advantage of Belarus’ international isolation after the rigging of last year’s presidential elections as that country is increasingly dependent on it. The deepening integration of the countries will not only reduce Belarus’ sovereignty, but will have consequences for regional security.
After the shocks caused by the migration-management crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Commission (EC) initiated reforms in Schengen. The new strategy aims at rebuilding trust between states and gradually lifting border restrictions. This process will be hampered by the continued public health threat, as well as the deadlock in the discussion on reform of migration policy, in particular the asylum system.
Defender Europe 21: Importance of the Military Exercises for Defence and Deterrence in Europe
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; security; policy; military policy; Defender Europe 21;
During the Defender Europe 21 exercises, U.S. troops tested a new concept of multi-domain operations, which is to provide them with an operational advantage over Russia and China. Continuing exercises with NATO allies is one of the main ways of developing defence and deterrence capabilities in Europe in the long term. Given the likely cuts in U.S. defence spending, NATO should increase its common military budget and allocate some funds to regular, large-scale exercises with significant U.S. involvement.
The Eduard Heger government wants to increase the production of energy from renewable sources and nuclear energy. This is evidenced among others by the preparations for the commissioning of two new units of the Mochovce nuclear power plant. Although Visegrad Group states include pronouncements they plan to use nuclear power in their national energy mixes, the difference in those mixes limits the possibilities of formulating regional climate policy and results in a lack of coherence on the EU forum. Hydrogen fuel, the use of which is growing in Slovakia, also remains an untapped potential for regional cooperation.
The Biden Administration’s Vision of North Korea Policy
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Biden; administration; North Korea; foreign policy; security;
The main goal of U.S. policy towards North Korea remains the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. The Biden administration intends to implement it by continued sanctions pressure, direct negotiations with North Korea, and coordination of actions with allies and other countries. The flexibility of the U.S. approach suggests its readiness to initiate talks aimed at freezing and limiting the North Korean nuclear programme. However, the vague nature of the American declarations and the expectant attitude towards North Korea pose the risk of maintaining the deadlock in the U.S.-North Korea talks and the further development of the North Korean nuclear and missile potential.
Keywords: Tax; EU; economic policy; global context;
Along with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and digitalisation of the economy, there is growing political pressure from several Member States to communitarise EU tax policy. The ambitious plans outlined by the European Commission (EC) for the coming years must be placed in the wider global context, including the agreement reached in July at the OECD/G20 on establishing a common framework for taxing multinationals. However, the lack of support for this project from Estonia, Ireland, and Hungary in particular puts into question the possibility to implement the EC proposals.
Perspectives on the Introduction of a European Digital Identity
Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; digital identity; introduction; perspectives; eIDA; EU; security; data;
The European Commission’s (EC) proposal to introduce a European Digital Identity (eIDA), enabling electronic confirmation of personal data, is the next step in the development of the EU digital market. The eIDA is intended to increase trust among users of electronic services and may facilitate and speed the flow of documents between EU countries. Challenges include ensuring compatibility and the security of systems operated by individual Member States.
Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: chip; economy; manufacturing; global economy; Taiwan; USA; foreign policy;
The supply gap in the chip market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the chips’ growing role in the global economy, as well as in international relations. Countries where chipmakers are headquartered are restricting exports of this good, and the competition for access to these products has opened a new phase in the technology race between China and the U.S. Currently, the U.S. is emerging victorious, significantly limiting China’s ability to modernise. The European Union plans to cooperate with Taiwan and the U.S. on chip supplies and is working on production technology.
The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU and Britain’s new integrated strategy from March 2021 is creating challenges for President Joe Biden’s transatlantic policies. The lack of cooperation between the UK and EU in areas of foreign and security policy may adversely affect U.S. policies in Europe. Even though the new UK strategy generally emphasises the importance of British-American cooperation, it also suggests potential tensions in relations with the U.S. associated with the question of Northern Ireland, economic relations with China, or shifting British involvement to the Indo-Pacific.
The United States has begun redistributing procured SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to countries affected by a shortage of doses. The U.S. joined the international COVAX initiative and declared it would provide 500 million doses to it by the end of 2022. The goal of U.S. diplomacy is to improve the country’s image on the international stage and compete with China, which uses vaccines to strengthen its relations with African and Latin American countries.
Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.
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