Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s premiership has become one of Israel’s most important European partners. This is reflected in the diplomatic support for Israel by Hungary, mainly at the EU level. Close relations with Israel serve Hungary’s foreign and domestic policy goals and at the same time weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s Middle East policy. However, the new Israeli government may be less open to political cooperation with this country because of earlier criticism of Hungary on, for example, historical issues.
A New Impulse for the Development of Military Mobility in the EU
Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; military policy; development; new impulse; USA; foreign policy; NATO;
In May, the Council of the EU agreed that Canada, Norway, and the U.S. can join the EU’s Military Mobility project. This is the first decision to allow third countries to participate in Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). The political impulse has the potential to improve the speed and flexibility of the deployment of military forces within the EU. However, a coherent approach by the EU and NATO should be maintained and joint investments in transport infrastructure increased.
The economy of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries has been strongly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the low level of vaccination of their populations hampers its recovery. Before the upcoming EaP summit in December this year, the EU has proposed the Economic and Investment Plan (EIP) to help its partners. The plan has the potential to develop the digital economy and support enterprises, but infrastructure investments may be limited by prevalent corruption in the region. Its success also will depend on the acceleration of vaccination, which could be facilitated by an increase in the vaccine supply from the EU.
More Than Just Economic Growth: Social Issues in EU Politics
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
As the pandemic-related economic crisis unfolded, some Member States from Southern Europe, backed by left-wing factions in the European Parliament (EP), promoted greater coordination in the realm of social policy at the EU level and more ambitious goals in combatting poverty and unemployment. However, a large group of states, mostly from Northern Europe, expressed reservations about such proposals. As a result, the majority of planned actions are declarations rather than binding commitments.
The French presidency of the Council of the EU, which will be in the first half of 2022, will coincide with the presidential and parliamentary campaign in that country. President Emmanuel Macron’s goal is to convince voters that he effectively supports the interests of French businesses in the EU and is laying the foundations of the EU’s superpower status based on the Franco-German tandem. The electoral context may make the EU a hostage to internal politics in France. Certain French demands, such as deepening social integration, will increase divisions in the Union.
Jordan’s Political Strengthening: Regional and International Context
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Jordan; political strengthening; regional context; international context; Middle East policy; USA: EU;
The July meeting of U.S. President Joe Biden and Jordan’s King Abdullah II was a manifestation of the improvement in relations between the two countries. Abdullah’s distinction as the first Arab leader Biden met since becoming president confirms the shift in U.S. Middle East policy from the previous administration’s, which enhanced the kingdom’s destabilisation. Jordan’s stability is crucial for the EU to maintain its influence on the security situation in its immediate neighbourhood.
In parallel to the development of hypersonic weapons, the Americans are also researching active defences against this kind of threat. So far, the Pentagon has revealed few of its hypersonic defence (HD) projects, although the U.S. Congress each year has increased funds for these efforts. The first generation of HD systems will force a choice between the most effective systems and the use of elements of “classic” missile defence. The resulting increased deterrence potential of the U.S. in Asia and Europe might be favourable for its allies, which have no real capabilities to build indigenous, holistic, and integrated HD systems.
Implications of Nord Stream 2’s Completion for Ukraine
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Nord Stream 2; energy policy; Ukraine; implications;
Commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline will lead to a halt in the transit of Russian gas to the EU via Ukrainian territory, which will have a negative impact on Ukraine’s security and fiscal situation. Germany, the main promoter of NS2 in the EU, managed to persuade the U.S. administration to allow the project to be finalised in exchange for promises of German-American support for Ukraine. The real aim of the German initiative, however, is to defuse the controversy surrounding NS2 rather than to provide tangible support for Ukraine. The planned compensation does not adequately consider the security implications for the country of the construction of the pipeline.
EU Increasing Its Commitment to the Protection of Cultural Heritage in Conflicts
Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; cultural heritage; conflicts; protection; policy;
In June, the Council of the EU endorsed the “Concept on Cultural Heritage in Conflicts and Crises”, developed by the European External Action Service (EEAS). It sets specific political goals for the Union to strengthen its soft power and contribute to building lasting peace in conflict-affected areas. However, its implementation will require coherence in the Union’s external action as well as the adoption of specific guidelines for the protection of cultural heritage during EU civilian missions and operations.
The collapse of Afghanistan’s government and security forces might increase the terrorist threat to the U.S. and Europe. During the period before 11 September 2001, the leaders of Al-Qaida and the Afghan fundamentalists cooperated closely. According to UN estimates, there are currently between a few hundred to a thousand members of Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. Despite weakening since the death of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida in future might use Afghanistan to regroup and as a safe haven.
Canada is strengthening its economic and security relations with Europe. The search for new areas of cooperation with the European Union (EU) is linked to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plans for rebuilding the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is an element of a broader strategy that seeks to tighten transatlantic relations and assist democratic partners in their long term rivalry with China and Russia. Common positions on climate issues, technological development, and defending civil rights will foster deeper strategic cooperation.
The Taliban seizure of Kabul will affect the largest countries in the region in various ways. Pakistan is the main winner, while India finds itself in the worst situation. However, the biggest beneficiary could be China, which may gain access to Afghanistan’s minerals and implement its Belt and Road Initiative there. Most countries in the region believe that if the Taliban were to introduce a government approved by the majority of the population and control the entire territory, the new situation may bring more opportunities than threats. However, this requires the Taliban to restrict the activities of terrorist organisations and Afghanistan’s neighbours to recognise the new government.
Protocol No. 15 to the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR), which entered into force on 1 August, was to improve the functioning of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), including by accelerating the examination of cases. However, some of the changes made by it may have the opposite effect. The protocol does not solve the problem of overloading the ECtHR with incoming complaints. The reform should be thus continued by, for example, more effective resolution by states of systemic problems identified by the ECtHR.
The Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country. Afghans are struggling now with forced displacement as well as a food and health crisis. The EU will increase its humanitarian aid, but its effectiveness will be limited by dangerous working conditions for NGOs. This requires an agreement with the Taliban to respect humanitarian law.
The European Union is strengthening tech cooperation with the United States through the recently appointed Trade and Technology Council, among others. New transatlantic projects and greater coordination in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), securing supply chains, and cybersecurity are elements of a broader strategy aimed at competing with China on technology. The biggest challenge for the EU and U.S. will be in coordinating their policies towards large tech companies, including planned European competition legislation for the digital market that will impact American firms.
The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia
Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; Central Asia; region; security;
From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.
Belarusian-Ukrainian relations began to deteriorate last August when Belarus handed over to Russia - instead of Ukraine - pro-Russia mercenaries detained in Minsk who were fighting in Donbas. Ukraine has joined the EU’s sanctions regime against Belarus and the countries have enacted mutual trade restrictions. Bilateral relations are likely to deteriorate further.
The CCP’s Tightening of Control over China’s IT Sector
Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Communist Party; CCP; IT; economy;
Contrary to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) expectations that China will develop production of semiconductors, robots, and artificial intelligence (AI), the local IT sector has been most successful in creating social networking and trade-support platforms. The CCP is concerned about the growing political and economic influence of IT companies and their leaders, especially the potential of the data processed there. Consequently, it has adopted new regulations, started investigations of companies, and enacted repression of Chinese CEOs with the aim of subjugating the sector to the state.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in its 20 years of operation has not had a lasting impact on security in Central Asia, serving mainly as a forum for political consultations between Russia and China with the countries of the region. The SCO has only to a limited extent achieved the goals assumed at its creation, including stabilisation of the region and fighting terrorism and crime. Russia and China have developed other instruments to influence the situation in Central Asia, independent from the SCO. However, the organisation is an important instrument for creating legitimacy for their policies towards the countries of the region, as well as in limiting the influence of the EU and the U.S.
Costly Neglect: The German Political Scene Grapples with Afghanistan
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; Germany; political scene; costly neglect; CDU;
An incorrect assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and the delayed evacuation of Germanpersonnel and their associates have contributed to the decline in CDU/CSU ratings. The ChristianDemocrats’ standing is also made more difficult by the prospect of restarting the debate onmigration policy, which is still controversial within the party. Criticism of the government’sactions by the opposition during the campaign and the low popularity of Armin Laschet, theleader of the Christian Democrats, may jeopardise the party’s victory in the Bundestag electionsin September.
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