Party of Action and Solidarity Gains Full Power: The Opening Record of the Pro-European Government in Moldova
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; Pro-European government; party of action;
The election of President Maia Sandu in November 2020 and the success of her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in the July 2021 parliamentary elections have for the first time given full control of the state to a party willing to implement pro-European reforms in Moldova. This creates a favourable situation in which, with the support of Poland and other active, willing countries, EU eastern policy may be more effective and result in more easily attained and tangible results in the democratic transformation of Moldova.
Confronted with the economic crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU Member States decided to increase public spending which, due to low interest rates, they could finance through debt on attractive terms. These circumstances favour the calls for reform of EU fiscal rules that impose limits related to deficit and public debt. Modifications will most probably focus on making more room for growth enhancing spending (green and digital transitions, education).
Poland and Germany have different views about nuclear energy. In Poland, it is meant to be the key to decarbonisation. Germany, though, has been phasing out nuclear energy and transitioning to other sources. German politicians also encourage other countries to abandon nuclear, reflecting German society’s anti-nuclear sentiments and the country’s economic interests. The Bundestag elections will not change this view, but the growing power of the Greens might intensify this course.
The active phase of the Belarusian-Russian Zapad 2021 exercises ended on 16 September. They were the largest manoeuvres in Russia’s western strategic direction since the collapse of the USSR. They were accompanied by hybrid actions aimed mainly at the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank, and they will continue after the manoeuvres. It was also another demonstration of Russia’s readiness to use force against the Alliance and a presentation of the high degree of interoperability of the armed forces of both countries. For NATO, the deepening military integration of Russia and Belarus requires an update of the Alliance’s defence plans and continued reinforcement of its Eastern Flank.
Keywords: Arab Gulf States; Afghanistan; situation; EU;
Arab state authorities are refraining from making unequivocal declarations about the future of relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. The priority of the Arab leadership in the Persian Gulf will be to prevent the destabilisation of Afghanistan and to influence the Afghan government policy towards terrorist organisations. Given the convergence of EU and Arab state goals related to countering the threat of terrorism in the country, the Union could include them in the announced regional platform for cooperation on Afghanistan.
The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; Africa; military missions; situation; impact;
The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.
Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latin America; Vaccines; COVID-19; diplomacy; vaccine;
The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.
A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; Saudi Arabia; foreign policy; new government; region;
Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.
Politics prevails – Israel’s trade relations with the European Union
Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; trade relations; EU; Israel and Palestine conflict; Political obstacles;
The European Union’s trade relations with Israel are asymmetrical, but the overall volume of their trade in goods and services has been growing rapidly. The EU is Israel’s top partner in this field, while Israel ranks outside the top 30 of the EU’s biggest partners; the EU has a positive trade balance with this country. This state of affairs has turned trade into a potential political instrument, but its assertive use by the EU with respect to the Palestinian issue has failed to bring about any change in Israel’s policy towards the occupied territories. Instead, Israel’s resistance to the EU’s policy on this issue has led to a freeze in the institutional development of trade relations, especially in the services and investment sectors. The EU and especially Israel could benefit from a further liberalisation in bilateral relations and its extension to their partners in the region, but political factors are hampering this process. Therefore, a breakthrough in the form of launching negotiations on an agreement to create a deep and comprehensive free trade area appears unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Macroeconomic data for the first six months of 2023 confirm Belarus’s steadily increasing dependence on Russia. In the second year of the war, Minsk is paying a high price for its complicity in Russia’s aggression, the regime’s acts of repression targeting its opponents, and its confrontational policy towards the West. This has involved Belarus losing a major portion of its markets in the EU and Ukraine. As a consequence, Belarus’s trade in commodities with the Russian Federation already accounts for around 70% of its total trade; considering that the transport of Belarusian goods (mainly fuels and potash fertilisers) is dependent on transit through Russian ports and railways, Russia’s share in Belarusian exports now exceeds 90%.
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; Talibans; China; EU; USA; foreign policy; military policy;
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the end of the U.S. military mission is being used by China as evidence of the failure of American interventionism. Chinese propaganda emphasises the advantage of its own model of relations with other countries, marked by the declared lack of interference in their internal affairs. The Chinese authorities do not want to engage economically in Afghanistan for the time being, as they do not believe that the Taliban will provide efficient administration or security for possible investments. China instead will focus on political support and limited humanitarian aid in cooperation with regional countries, as well as with the EU.
The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.
The ISIS faction Khorasan Province, ISIS-K, is using Afghanistan’s internal destabilisation to grow its structures in the region. It will mobilise supporters from neighbouring countries to challenge the strength of the Taliban and their ally Al-Qaida. ISIS-K is much weaker than them but aspires for a greater role through the escalating use of violence. By controlling part of Afghanistan, ISIS-K intends to build structures like those in Syria and Iraq in 2013-2019. The success of these plans would further threaten the security of the countries of Central and South Asia and increase the terrorist threat to Europe.
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighborhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.
A Tight Race: Czechia Readies for Elections to the Chamber of Deputies
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czechia; elections; Chamber of Deputies; parliament; foreign policy;
After the elections to the lower house of the Czech parliament on 8-9 October, the biggest political forces will be the ruling Action of the Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) led by Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, as well as two coalitions - the right-wing liberal Together and centrist-liberal PirStan. The limited coalition capabilities of ANO, the further fragmentation of the parliament, and President Miloš Zeman’s stance to favour Babiš may make the appointment of a government more difficult. After the elections, Czechia will face long coalition negotiations, which may affect the efficiency of its foreign policy.
The International Consequences of the Military Coup in Guinea
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Guinea; military coup; foreign policy;
On 5 September, the Guinean special forces overthrew President Alpha Condé, who recently entered his third term following controversial constitutional changes. This is the third coup in Africa this year. The uncertainty in the country, which is one of the world’s largest bauxite producers, has caused record increases in aluminium prices on world markets and concerns among importers, but mainly Russia and China.
Later this year, the European Commission (EC) will present draft legislation aimed at increasing the standards of monitoring, reporting, and leak detection of methane emissions. Although there is a consensus in the EU regarding the need to reduce emissions of this second-most harmful greenhouse gas after CO2, the implementation of the EC’s methane strategy and its expected costs are of concern to energy companies, including Polish ones. The EC will have to consider implementing a system of compensation and incentives to mitigate the effects of the proposed reforms.
Removing Single Market Barriers: Challenges and Perspectives
Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: COVID-19; economy; single market; barriers; challenges; perspectives;
The COVID-19 pandemic has limited the functioning of the single market, which has contributed to a 24% drop in intra-EU trade in second and third quarter of 2020. In addition to pre-existing barriers, the Member States introduced new, often permanent, restrictions on cross-border economic activity. In order to restore the full economic potential of the EU, including global competitiveness, in March 2020 the European Commission (EC) published a long-term action plan to strengthen the single market. However, growing protectionism of the Member States poses challenge for implementing this concept.
China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.
The likely finalisation of a contract between the government of Mali and the private military company (PMC) known as the Wagner Group threatens the future of the EU’s military cooperation with this country. The Wagner Group’s engagement in Mali would be another major intervention by the PMC on the continent. The deployment of these informal Russian forces will not resolve the jihadist threat, but would help Russia present itself as an alternative to the West in Africa.
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