The Fall of Afghanistan: The Biden Administration’s First Crisis
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; Joe Biden; foreign policy; security;
The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan sparked the first major crisis of confidence in President Joe Biden and his administration, both in the U.S. and internationally. It has affected the administration’s relations with Democrats in Congress, whose confidence in the president has weakened. This narrows the president’s freedom to conduct foreign policy. At the same time, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan will be used by its rivals to undermine American guarantees to Allies and the U.S. standing in the international arena.
The Development of Cooperation between the V4 and South Korea
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: South Korea; V4; cooperation; development; COVID-19; economy; logistics;
The COVID-19 pandemic has turned out to be an impulse for the development of South Korea’s economic cooperation with the countries of the Visegrad Group (V4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), which have already been the main recipients of South Korean goods in the EU. Changes in global supply chains and the emphasis put on climate issues both in the EU and South Korea have prompted companies from the latter to invest more in Central Europe, including in the areas of electro-mobility and green technologies. The V4-South Korea leaders’ summit scheduled for 4 November in Budapest will serve to deepen economic relations.
The “France 2030” investment plan, presented on 12 October by President Emmanuel Macron, should reinforce the effects of the “France Relance” recovery plan and steer the development of the French economy towards innovative and green technologies, including zero-emission transport and artificial intelligence (AI). Although “France 2030” is to become part of Macron’s re-election campaign, the unclear impact of the proposed solutions on the competitiveness of French industry and living standards, which are especially important to voters, is problematic.
On 5 October, the minority government of the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians (UDMR) of Prime Minister Florin Ciţu, received a vote of no confidence. The appointment of a new stable government is uncertain. This political crisis has weakened Romania’s capabilities to tackle COVID-19 and could hamper the implementation of the Next Generation EU recovery plan. The prospect of a series of unstable governments will hinder the structural reforms on which Romanian membership in the Schengen area depends, as well as cooperation with foreign partners.
The course and results of the elections to the State Duma indicate a strengthening of Russia’s authoritarian regime and, at the same time, show the growing crisis of legitimacy for President Vladimir Putin. The response of the Russian authorities will be further centralisation of power and repression of citizens. Despite Russians’ growing economic difficulties, the macroeconomic situation will remain stable, which is crucial for the ruling elite. In foreign policy, Russia may more frequently use military activity (including in Ukraine), escalating tensions and hybrid actions against some EU states and the U.S.
Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Europe; gas; energy policy; crisis; Gazprom;
Gas prices in the European Union have reached the highest levels in 13 years. In view of the tighter supplies, EU Member States have started to implement support mechanisms for the most vulnerable consumers. Gazprom, however, is trying to exacerbate the crisis to again increase Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. The effects of this manipulation will be felt across the entire EU economy and may adversely affect its energy transformation plans. Ukraine, though, will be affected most by this situation.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) remains the largest political party in the lower chamber of federal parliament following the results of early elections in Canada. The prime minister however had counted on a majority, which would have allowed him to more easily enact LPC’s key economic and social policies. In a minority government, Trudeau will be forced to search for support from among the remaining parliamentary parties. The lack of a majority may also complicate the pursuit of ambitious foreign policy to fight climate change and assume broader engagement in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic.
Growing Global Inequality: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; developing countries; global inequality;
The poorest countries will be the ones most affected by the long-term economic and social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Delays in vaccinations and insufficient resources to prompt an economic recovery deepen their poverty. The deepening of economic inequality in the world will lead to destabilisation, increased migration pressure, and difficulties in achieving climate goals. That is why G20 leaders have announced that they will accelerate vaccination campaigns in the poorest countries. The EU can focus on increasing the supply of vaccines to developing countries and the recovery of their economies from the pandemic.
Sechin’s Empire: The Growing Importance of Rosneft in Russian Politics
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Rosneft; Igor Sechin; Russia; foreign policy; energy; oil;
This September, the Russian government supported a request from Rosneft, Russia’s biggest oil company, to allow it to export natural gas via the Gazprom-owned Nord Stream 2 (NS2), which is not yet operational. President Vladimir Putin will make the ultimate decision. However, the EU law requiring access to NS2 for shippers other than Gazprom means that it is possible that the Kremlin will try to allow such limited competition. In practice, it would mean that NS2 is used by only two companies controlled by the Kremlin, which would not comport to EU law. Such a scenario, however, would signal the growing influence of Rosneft’s head, Igor Sechin, on the Russian and international political scenes.
In 2021, Lithuania revised its policy towards China, including withdrawing from the “17+1” initiative and tightening relations with Taiwan. In response, China withdrew its ambassador to Lithuania, accused the country of succumbing to U.S. influence, and restricted Lithuanian companies’ access to its market. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are trying to neutralise the impact of Lithuania’s influence in the EU. It is in the Union’s interest to support Lithuania in its dispute with China, as well as to further develop economic relations with Taiwan, including the diversification of supply chains.
The Hungarian government’s actions, especially in the field of energy, fit with Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy aimed at weakening Western structures. Its influence on Hungary is deepening in the political, economic, and social dimensions. Both the Hungarian perception of international relations and the view of Russia as a politically neutral economic partner, as well as the benefits it brings for this country, are contrary to the interests of Poland, the V4, NATO, and the EU.
In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation.
On 15 November, U.S. President Joe Biden signed into law a bipartisan bill that provides for $1.2 trillion in infrastructure investments. The success of this legislation and subsequent initiatives related to social spending to a large extent will determine whether the Democratic Party retains control of Congress after the 2022 “mid-term” elections. In implementing the bill, one of the administration’s goals will be to make the U.S. more economically competitive with China. Strengthening efforts to reduce emissions will enable the U.S. to play a more important role as a leader in the fight against climate change.
Moving Away from Investment Arbitration within the European Union
Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; investment arbitration; moving away; Court of Justice;
The September and October 2021 rulings of the Court of Justice of the EU indicate that the court is consistently aiming to put an end to the practice of arbitration proceedings between EU investors and Member States. Like the European Commission, it considers the practice to be contrary to EU law. Its rulings create an opportunity to limit compensation payments to EU investors by Member States, including Poland. However, the Commission will strive to create alternative solutions to protect foreign investments.
Turkey’s negotiations with the Taliban aim to strengthen the country’s political influence in Afghanistan, hoping that would improve its international position, help develop its strategy towards Asia, and limit the influx of Afghan refugees. Cooperation with Turkey on Afghanistan could help the EU better manage migration from the latter.
Biden Administration Names Climate Change a Priority National Security Issue
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Biden; administration, climate; policy; change; national security;
A new set of Biden administration strategic documents confirms that the one of the U.S. priorities is limiting the harm and risk of climate change to its national security. Especially novel are the topics of two of the reports, one by the U.S. intelligence community and a second by the Defense Department. They imply a new approach to U.S. strategic planning, which likely will be reflected in the work of the U.S. military commands in Europe and in the American position on the NATO Strategic Concept.
In recent months, the U.S. has sought to strengthen relations with ASEAN countries, as evidenced by President Joe Biden’s participation in the U.S.-ASEAN virtual summit and by the defence secretary’s and vice president’s visits to the region. The U.S. wants to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific and limit China’s influence in the region. Key for the U.S. will be to present a comprehensive and long-term offer to the ASEAN members, for example, in the security and economic spheres. The EU can expand on the U.S. approach to broader cooperation in areas that are important to it, such as the stability of sea routes.
North Korea’s Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; South Korea; USA; foreign policy;
In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.
On 11 November, Alexander Lukashenka threatened to halt gas transit to the EU, and then on 17 November Belarus restricted oil shipments to Poland due to unplanned maintenance. These actions are intended to discourage the EU from imposing further sanctions on the Belarusian regime over the border crisis it has caused. Concessions by the EU would be seen as weakness and provoke Belarus to escalate the situation on the border. Threats to stop the supply of gas, and possibly oil, by Belarus to the EU are very unlikely to materialise.
In October, Russia created an energy crisis in Moldova to stop the reform of its gas sector and to undermine public trust in its pro-EU authorities. Moldova survived the crisis with the support of the EU and Ukraine. On 29 October, however, Moldova concluded a new five-year gas supply contract with Gazprom at the cost of postponing energy market reforms. Poland and Moldova’s EU allies can use this time to help immunise the local energy sector against further politically motivated Russian pressure.
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