Migration from Arab States and the Crisis on the Border with Belarus
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Arab States; Belarus; crisis; migration; foreign policy;
Belarus is taking advantage of the difficult situation in Arab states to try to destabilise the EU by forcing migrants from Minsk on routes to the border. In the long run, promotion of legal migration of Arab people to the EU may limit irregular migration and fill the demographic gaps that are increasingly widening in ageing European societies.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; space programme; private sector; NASA; NewSpace;
With the success of the Dragon capsule, the U.S. has regained the ability to independently launch astronauts into orbit. This was made possible thanks to cooperation between NASA and a private space company, part of an industry called NewSpace. To achieve the goals of returning to the Moon and manned flight to Mars, the U.S. will need to step up its cooperation with NewSpace and involve additional private and public foreign partners. This could become an impulse to deepen transatlantic cooperation in space exploration and strengthen the European space market.
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: ASEAN; economy; COVID-19M consequences;
The COVID-19 pandemic in the 10 member states of ASEAN has resulted in severe losses of life and economic problems, including higher unemployment. It also has revealed weakness in the bloc’s integration, including a lack of coordination. However, the crisis is an opportunity to tighten cooperation, for example, in the supply of medical equipment. It may also contribute to the intensification of relations with external partners, such as trade agreements with the EU, which can support ASEAN economies’ recovery from recession.
In recent years, the UAE has become more actively involved in disputes in the Middle East and North Africa. Combating the influence of Islamist groups and the countries supporting them, weakening Iran, and increasing control over transport routes in the Gulf are all intended to consolidate the Emirates regime’s power. However, the actions carried out under the pretext of combating radicalism rather strengthen authoritarian governments in the region and in the long run will deepen the destabilisation.
In relations between the EU and Turkey, the differences in foreign policy have taken precedence over the stagnant accession negotiations. This is a result of Turkey’s growing distance from the Copenhagen criteria and problems for the Member States with its policy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. As a result, the EU is developing a new approach towards Turkey. For it to be effective, the Union should signal Turkey that improvement in relations is possible only when it refrains from acting against the interests of the Member States.
W lipcu br. Chorwacja przystąpiła do mechanizmu kursów walutowych (ERM II) poprzedzającego członkostwo w strefie euro. Rząd, tak jak opozycja i większość opinii publicznej, widzi we wspólnej walucie więcej korzyści niż zagrożeń i wskazuje na możliwość jej wprowadzenia w 2023 r. Jednak, mimo braku przeszkód politycznych, prawdopodobnie nastąpi to później ze względu na problemy gospodarcze Chorwacji, przede wszystkim nadmierny dług publiczny, które pogłębiają się wskutek recesji spowodowanej pandemią COVID-19.
On 14 August, the candidate in the presidential elections in Belarus, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, announced the formation of a coordination council. This was the first attempt in years to consolidate the opposition, which, under the authoritarian political system of Belarus, finds it very difficult to operate. Given the growing number of people involved in the work of the council, it has the chance to become a long-term political project capable of developing reform plans for the country.
The Czech government assumes a gradual withdrawal from coal while increasing the share of nuclear in the national energy mix. This is confirmed in an agreement with the main energy supplier, ČEZ, from July on financing another nuclear reactor. Even though Prime Minister Andrej Babiš had previously criticised the EU plan to reduce CO2 emissions, ultimately Czechia accepted the EU climate goals. A more effective energy transformation in Central Europe would come from closer cooperation, including in the programme of the ongoing Polish presidency in the Visegrad Group, help for coal-mining regions, and in other efforts.
Perspectives on China’s Policy towards Central Asia
Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Asia; China; policy; perspective; BRI; economic crisis;
Central Asia is an important direction in Chinese foreign policy, crucial for the implementation of the land portion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The challenges for China are the growing anti-Chinese sentiment in Central Asia and the risk of destabilisation in the region caused by the economic crisis and the weakness of local states. In the long term, this will force China to become more involved in regional security, which will exacerbate the Sino-Russian rivalry in Central Asia.
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU Pact; migration; asylum; COVID-19; migrations;
Conflicts between Member States over the relocation mechanism as well as the changing conditions of migration policy are delaying the adoption of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The strategy, apart from answering the question about the shape of the European asylum system, must weigh the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the situation of migrants and border management, instability in the EU’s neighbourhood and the long-term challenges related to economic migration. The document may define the shape of EU migration policy for many years or renew divisions over this topic.
China’s Stances on Political Crises in Other Countries
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; political crises; foreign policy; PRC; Belarus;
China’s growing global engagement has altered the government’s interpretation of the non-interference principle, which officially is a cornerstone of PRC foreign policy. It has been noticeable especially since the early 2000s in China’s reactions to internal political crises in other countries. Although China usually pursues a wait-and-see approach, mainly where it has little economic and political interests, such as recently in Belarus, more and more often China openly involves itself where it has significant interests or its citizens may suffer. This approach creates an opportunity for democratic countries to cooperate with China, albeit to a limited extent.
The anti-corruption protests in Bulgaria that have lasted for two months are not weakening. Marchers demand the depoliticisation of the prosecutor’s office and the dismissal of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. After a decade in power, Bulgaria has the highest recorded level of corruption and the least media freedom in the European Union. Despite this, Borisov is not criticized by EU institutions or the largest Member States, which opt for stability in a country that lies on key migration routes over demanding devotion to high standards of democracy.
Hungary’s new National Security Strategy (NBS) emphasises strengthening European defence. NATO remains the country’s security pillar, yet military and defence-industrial cooperation with Germany and France is given priority over the U.S. Hungary’s low commitment to NATO’s deterrence and defence posture weakens its position in the Alliance, which is why the country will try to capitalise on an active defence policy to strengthen its clout in the EU. Consequently, Hungary may support and engage in initiatives aimed at building European strategic autonomy in competition with NATO.
In August, Egypt and Greece signed an agreement on the delimitation of their maritime borders. The designation of the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) will allow the countries to tighten cooperation in the gas industry. At the same time, the agreement strengthens the perception of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum as a tool countering Turkey. The potential escalation of the conflict in the region will hinder the further development of gas cooperation between the EU and Egypt.
Opening of the European Centre of Excellence for Civilian Crisis Management
Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: CoE; Centre of Excellence; civilian crisis management; opening;
The launch of the European Centre of Excellence for Civilian Crisis Management (CoE) in Berlin is one of the goals of the German presidency of the EU Council. The new unit is to support the states and external services of the EU, increasing the effectiveness of the civilian dimension of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The lack of involvement of all Member States in the creation of the CoE, however, raises concerns about the effectiveness of cooperation and proper coordination with the activities of Union bodies. Poland’s participation in the CoE contributes to strengthening the potential of EU civilian missions.
Complaints Season Not Over Yet: Legal Disputes about Bond-Buying in the Euro Area
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Euro; financial markets; policy; Bond-Buying; Euro Area; PEPP;
In response to the judgment of the German constitutional court (BVG) in May questioning the purchase of government bonds in the euro area launched in 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) provided explanations through the Bundesbank, which the German government and parliament considered sufficient. The dispute, however, is hardly over. Critics of the central bank’s actions intend to file further complaints, this time against the pandemic programme PEPP.
Bangladesh, a country of 160 million, is one of the most successful examples in the world of the eradication of poverty and economic growth in recent decades. Although the COVID-19 pandemic will slow its economic development, the country’s international role will grow. This will be influenced partly by the intensification of the rivalry between India, China, and the U.S. in the region. Strengthening Poland’s cooperation with this country may create new business opportunities and strengthen the Asian direction of foreign policy. This can be achieved by strengthening the political dialogue, re-opening the Polish embassy in Dhaka, and more government support for economic promotion.
Keywords: Mozambique; Muslim rebels; ISIS; Jihadists;
In August, ISIS-linked Muslim rebels in Mozambique seized the strategic port of Mocímboa da Praia, located near gas installations in the Cabo Delgado province. The extremist offensive may spoil development opportunities in a country that is one of Poland’s main trading partners in Africa.
Restrained Involvement: Germany and the Political Crisis in Belarus
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; Belarus; political crisis; involvement;
In view of the ongoing political crisis in Belarus, the German government supported the imposition of new EU sanctions and declared its readiness to engage in dialogue with President Alexander Lukashenka and Russia. The reluctance of the Belarusian authorities to make concessions, the growing interest of German public opinion in the situation in Belarus, and the tensions in relations with Russia may induce Germany to extend the sanctions and provide greater support to the opposition.
Prospects for New Sources of Revenue for the European Union
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; European Commision; economic policy; budget; funds;
The European Commission’s proposal to pay off the debt taken on to create the recovery fund through new taxes strengthens the arguments for reform of the revenue side of the EU budget. Establishing additional sources of revenue is in the interest of net beneficiaries of the EU budget, who would be particularly hit by the cuts provoked by the necessity to pay the Union’s creditors. Proceeds from taxes could also enable greater spending on new priorities such as research, healthcare, and border protection. The sceptics, however, including the Northern European states, are still unconvinced.
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