The EU’s actions in relation to the crisis in Belarus were rapid, but they remain limited. The Member States have little impact on the Belarusian regime and they are divided over the scope of common policy. Poland can sustain the EU’s engagement in Belarus and demand ambitious actions to support Belarusian civil society. The EU should considerably expand the list of sanctioned officials, allocate more funds to the third sector, and coordinate international aid for Belarus.
Ukraine’s Response to the Political Crisis in Belarus
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Belarus; political crisis; response;
Alexander Lukashenka has so far been seen in Ukraine as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian authorities initially avoided condemning the electoral fraud to avoid weakening the Belarusian president. That have since tightened their positions in response to Lukashenka’s accusation that Ukraine helped initiate the protests. However, Ukraine will not become actively involved in resolving the crisis in Belarus and will limit itself to reacting to Belarusian provocations and supporting EU policy towards that country.
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Japan; foreign policy; Abe Shinzo; new government; EU;
On 16 September, Suga Yoshihide, a close associate of the former head of government Abe Shinzo, became Japan’s new prime minister. He will continue the foreign and security policy of his predecessor amid the increasing rivalry between the U.S. and China. EU-Japan economic and strategic partnership agreements concluded in recent years and the Union’s increasingly assertive attitude towards China create an opportunity to deepen cooperation between the EU and Japan.
The political crisis following the presidential elections in Belarus has meant that Alexander Lukashenka, in struggling to maintain power, has had to decide to deepen integration with Russia, contrary to his former position. However, to not further antagonise Belarusian society and strain the Belarusian state budget, Russia will spread this process out over time, primarily through the use of the provisions of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. The progressive integration of both countries will create political and economic challenges for neighbouring countries, including Poland.
The U.S., China, and Russia see the development and sale of a COVID-19 vaccine as a potential source of political and economic benefits. Their rivalry and reluctance to join multilateral initiatives are hindering WHO’s efforts to ensure equal access to the vaccine for all countries, including developing ones. This may delay containment of the pandemic and lead to recurrence.
The assassination attempt on Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has sparked a heated debate within the EU on the rationale behind Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and the political implications of its construction. Despite the growing criticism (e.g., in Germany, a key partner of the project), it is almost certain that the German leaders will maintain their support for the 95%-completed pipeline. Therefore, U.S. sanctions remain the main threat to the project.
In August and September, Russia and Belarus conducted intensive military exercises. In the case of Belarus, the organisation of some of them was dictated by the post-election crisis and the desire to demonstrate that its military is ready to respond to external threats. In the case of Russia, these were planned exercises, which functioned as another signal to neighbouring countries and NATO about the high capabilities of its armed forces. Most of the manoeuvres were based on scenarios aimed at Alliance countries.
The normalisation of relations with Israel undertaken by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain is one of the most important processes affecting the political situation in the Middle East. The process weakens the Palestinian leadership and strengthens the bloc of countries competing with Iran and Turkey, which may increase tensions in the region. The level of involvement of U.S. diplomacy and the lack of opposition from Arab League (AL) members indicate that Israeli-Arab normalisation - beneficial from the EU perspective - will deepen.
Until the post-election protests in Belarus, Lithuania’s policy towards that country had been characterised by pragmatism. Since then Lithuanian policy has changed to being increasingly involved - supporting the opposition and becoming one of the main proponents of the democratisation of Belarus. Such a position carries the risk of economic losses, but it is limited and Lithuania includes it in the possible costs of its actions. Lithuania’s relations with Belarus are conditioned by Russia’s policy, perceived as a direct threat to Lithuanian security. The development of events in Belarus strengthens, in turn, the cooperation between Poland and Lithuania.
The Growing Problem of Disinformation in Latin America
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latin America; Disinformation; growing problem; security; StratCom;
In the last few years, Latin America has seen a surge in disinformation, used as a tool in an internal political rivalry and influencing the public debate. This process is creating favourable conditions for Russian, Chinese, and Iranian state media - all gradually increasing their reach in the region - which use manipulation of information, for example, to discredit democratic states, especially the U.S., but also EU members. The growing scale of disinformation threatens democracy in Latin America. The EU could consider expanding its StratCom analysis of disinformation campaigns to monitor foreign state media content in the region.
For years, Ukraine had been dependent on gas imports from Russia and affected by corruption and inefficient management, among other problems. Thanks to some reforms and adapting EU rules, the Ukrainian authorities improved the transparency of the domestic gas market. For Poland, it has meant new opportunities for cooperation, but at the same time Polish entities face new challenges, including competition from companies from other states.
Africa in EU Policy: Old Challenges Hamper a New Partnership
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep,Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; policy; Africa; old challenges; foreign policy; partnerships; AU;
One of the priorities of the new European Commission is to strengthen the partnership with Africa. However, the cooperation proposals prepared for the EU-Africa summit planned for October are not sufficient to solve the problems in these relations. The postponement of the summit to 2021 offers an opportunity to correct the EU’s approach, including increasing the role of the African Union (AU) in shaping the common strategy and strengthening the partnership, which is in Poland’s interest.
The parliamentary elections in Myanmar on 8 November are likely to be won by the currently ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. However, the party will probably receive fewer votes than it did in 2015. A weaker electoral mandate and further isolation from Western countries will strengthen the military’s role, weaken democratisation, and will be conducive to increasing China’s influence. To prevent this, the EU may consider resuming cooperation with the civilian authorities despite accusations that it is persecuting the Rohingya minority. Greater engagement by the EU in Myanmar and closer cooperation with partners in Asia may give the Union more influence over the situation in that country than continued isolation of Aung San Suu Kyi.
Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; space policy; harmonisation; ESA;
Due to high costs and needed infrastructure, building space capabilities in Europe requires the cooperation of many entities. In the coming years, the coordination of EU and European Space Agency (ESA) activities will be key to the development of the European space sector. It is in Poland’s interest to increase the funding of its research centres and support the participation of Polish enterprises in projects implemented under the EU and ESA.
The poisoning of Alexei Navalny is a challenge for the German government’s policy towards Russia, which combines criticism of human rights violations and international law while maintaining cooperation to guarantee German economic and security interests. Although Germany’s response to the attack on the Russian opposition leader so far does not indicate a change in strategy, additional aggressive actions by the Russian authorities may lead gradually to a new course.
Anything but Lockdown: Germany in the Face of the Second Wave of the Pandemic
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; second wave; pandemic; COVID-19; lockdown; policy;
A rapid increase in the number of infections has prompted federal and provincial authorities in Germany to introduce new restrictions. They are designed to prevent local rates from exceeding 50 infections per 100,000 residents. The effectiveness of these actions will be of key importance for the condition of the economy. It will also affect the final balance sheet of the grand coalition rule and the course of next year’s election campaign to the Bundestag.
China faces rising debt and unemployment problems worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. restrictions. The economic difficulties spur dissatisfaction in society and the party apparatus. The solution to the problems includes increasing the share of the internal market in GDP growth. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are strengthening their rhetoric of rivalry with the West, which they blame for the difficulties. The central authorities also have tightened control over party officials. The anti-Western attitude along with the continual centralisation of power will make it impossible to compromise with the EU, for example, on increasing access to the Chinese market.
China’s rivalry with the U.S. is intensifying. New American sanctions threaten, among others, Huawei’s global position. As a result of China’s aggressive foreign policy, relations with the EU and Australia have worsened, and the border conflict with India has intensified. To counter these failures and re-build their image, the Chinese authorities are trying to shift the responsibility for the problems to the U.S., strengthening anti-Western rhetoric, and presenting the world with new multilateral initiatives, such as one related to data security. With China’s foreign policy being idealogised, any successful cooperation with the EU on climate matters is unrealistic.
Climate change exacerbates security threats to NATO states such as natural disasters, irregular migration, and local conflicts. It is also increasingly perceived by Alliance publics as one of the biggest civilisational challenges. Therefore, NATO’s commitment to combating the causes and effects of climate change will be an important element of strengthening public support for the Alliance and its political cohesion.
The U.S. presidential election is 3 November, but millions of Americans have already voted. The fear of COVID-19 and strong support of their chosen candidate from the early stage of the campaign prompted voters to participate in early voting. While Democratic challenger Joe Biden is indicated as the likely winner, it is possible that the polls do not reflect Donald Trump’s actual chances of re-election. At the same time, the president has signalled that he might not concede defeat because of what he has described as a fraudulent process of votes by post. The probability is high of political instability until the next president is sworn in January 2021.
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