In August, a group of officers overthrew the president of Mali. This further complicated the fragile situation in the country. While the military has delegated some power to a transitional civilian government, it wants to retain influence over major decisions. The EU’s priority remains the strengthening of Malian institutions so that the state ceases to be a seedbed of jihadism and criminality that threatens Europe’s neighbourhood.
Approved by President Volodymyr Zelensky in September this year, the new Ukrainian National Security Strategy (NSS) includes an expanded catalogue of threats to state security. The key one still is Russia’s aggressive policy, which Ukraine intends to counteract through the development of its defence capabilities and deepened cooperation with the EU and NATO. Further growth of the Ukrainian military industry will also enable the intensification of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation in the security sphere.
Dialogue Above All: France on Russia after the Navalny Poisoning
Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Alexei Navalny; poisoning; Belarus; political crisis; France;
France does not want the poisoning of Alexei Navalny to influence its policy towards Russia. By adopting a conciliatory attitude, France is trying to keep Russia from isolation in its relations with the EU. In exchange, it expects Russia’s cooperation in ending the war in Ukraine, resolving the political crisis in Belarus, and containing Turkish expansionism. Russia has responded with mixed signals, indicating again that it is an unreliable partner.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the U.S. economy hard, including causing high unemployment. This weakens the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and increases challenger Joe Biden's chances of victory. For the EU, a Biden presidency may mean, for example, an easing of trade disputes with the U.S. and cooperation on climate protection. However, whichever wins, Biden or Donald Trump, the U.S. will pose a challenge to the EU and European companies, which may find it difficult to compete with the high level of support of U.S. companies.
The EU faces a tough task in providing aid to the independent non-governmental sector in Belarus because of the difficulties in reaching new and informal civic groups and the Belarusian authorities’ restrictions on organisations seeking international aid. To overcome these limitations, the European Commission (EC) may consult its aid related to active citizenship to a greater extent with local communities in Belarus. For Poland and other Member States that are donors in this area, it will be important to ensure the effectiveness of EU aid and to coordinate their activities with the Union.
Bulgaria’s Threat to Block North Macedonia’s European Integration
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bulgaria; North Macedonia; EU: integration; block; threat;
Bulgaria has threatened to block the intergovernmental conference proposed by the European Commission(EC) for December 2020 that is intended to open accession negotiations with North Macedonia. The Bulgarian authorities want to force this country to officially recognise the existence of the Macedonian nation and language through its interpretation of history as the result of the denationalisation of local Bulgarians during the Yugoslavia period. Bulgaria expects its EU partners to support its position. Bulgaria’s actions, motivated by domestic politics, complicates the policy of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans, supported by Poland.
The peace talks between the Afghan authorities and the Taliban, launched on 12 September, are now the best chance to end the 20-year civil war in Afghanistan. It is possible, however, that the price of peace will be that the Taliban assumes a decisive role in the country, and that the present democratic system of government is dismantled. The Taliban’s position in the negotiations is strengthened by plans to end the foreign military presence in Afghanistan, internal conflicts in the democratic camp in Kabul, and the Taliban’s own growing military leverage. The support of states and organisations for the future government of Afghanistan will be crucial to preserving at least some of the achievements of the last 20 years.
Although Volodymyr Zelensky has identified the fight against corruption as one of the most important objectives of his presidency, he has not yet achieved success in this area. A large part of the Ukrainian political elite is trying to sabotage the activities of institutions fighting corruption. They are doing this through the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU), which has paralysed the national anti-corruption system with its judgments. The success of the fight against corruption in Ukraine depends on reform of the CCU and pressure from the IMF and the EU. Poland can support these efforts to reduce the scale of smuggling from Ukraine and improve the investment climate for Polish companies.
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; COVID-19; pandemic; second wave;
Israel was among the states that managed to mitigate the first wave of COVID-19. However, inconsistent actions in lifting the restrictions and a decline in social discipline have led to a sharp increase in morbidity. That forced Israel to be first country in the world to introduce a second lockdown, which is now being lifted. The political consequences of the second wave are a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increased tensions within the coalition, both of which enhance the chances of another cabinet crisis, including an early elections scenario.
Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Arab States; Turkey; foreign policy; Morocco;
In September, Egypt called on Arab states to create common, assertive policy against Turkey. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Morocco began to boycott Turkish imports. These moves stem from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s increasingly interventionist policy towards Arab states and the Mediterranean region. The escalating dispute puts the EU in a difficult position. Additional pressure on Turkey may coincide with the EU’s interests but it should avoid equating its Middle East policy with the goals of the authoritarian Arab regimes.
China is developing what it calls the Digital Silk Road (DSR), a network of cooperation with selected countries in the field of technology, including 5G networks and e-commerce. The rivalry with the U.S. and importance of the digital sector during the COVID-19 pandemic has put pressure on China to develop the DSR. It also aims to promote its own technological standards, which is a challenge for many countries, especially in the area of security. China’s approach may also push the EU and its partners, including the U.S., to cooperate more closely in developing competing alternatives.
Faith in Society: Sweden’s Response to New Outbreaks of COVID-19
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Sweden; COVID-19; response; new outbreaks; society; faith;
Sweden has consistently followed the same model of managing the COVID-19 pandemic since its beginning. It is based on social trust, encompassing the authorities’ belief in responsible behaviour and solidarity, and citizens’ belief in the competence of the authorities. Because of the resurgence of the disease since September, Sweden has increased the powers of local authorities to make sanitary recommendations. The government, which had introduced only a few restrictions, sees the pandemic as a source of lasting change that must be used to address climate, economic and social challenges.
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Programme: International Implications
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Saudi Arabia; nuclear programme; international implications; Iran;
Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme aims to help it achieve long-term economic goals and strengthen its international position. It is associated with many challenges, and furthermore it has sparked controversy, fuelled by the declarations of Saudi leaders that they could acquire a nuclear weapon. Additionally, the Saudi’s civilian nuclear programme could be used by its rival, Iran, to justify a more confrontational policy.
A robust increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections forced the French authorities to introduce a new lockdown from 30 October. This attempt to limit the spread of the pandemic coincides with rising apprehension after recent terrorist attacks and a worsening economy. The government of Jean Castex is only a few months old but has to cope not only with the introduction of a recovery plan but also the need to reinforce the sense of security among the people of France.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has caused mass migration of people from areas in the war zone. The people remaining in the territories of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia - the so-called People’s Republics - require humanitarian aid. The COVID-19 pandemic has deepened the isolation of the occupied territories from the rest of Ukraine. Given the Russians and separatist authorities’ various stances, the situation in Donbas will deteriorate further.
Czechia and COVID-19: From Success in Suppressing the Pandemic to an Overwhelming Second Wave
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czechia; COVID-19; pandemic; second wave;
Despite the effective suppression of COVID-19 cases in the spring of this year, Czechia is now struggling to contain record increases in the number of infections and deaths that place it among the worst-hit countries in the EU. Attempting to gain control of the disease, the government of Andrej Babiš took internal actions (such as introducing a state of emergency) and sought foreign assistance (from, for example, NATO and the EU). The pandemic has strengthened Czech cooperation with regional neighbours, including initiatives within the Visegrad Group, the intensification of activities of the Slavkov Triangle, stronger relations with German federal states, and the launch of the new Central Five (C5) format.
From October this year, new rules on the sale of cocoa beans entered into force, agreed between Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana - the crop’s two largest producers in the world - to ensure a profit for farmers. The agreement is an example of a departure from the raw material export model that is unfavourable to African producer countries. This change should increase the stability of African states. These processes will require a revision of the European business approach to Africa and the EU’s trade policy towards the continent.
EU citizens are divided in their assessment of community institutions’ record in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, no significant dip in trust in the Union has occurred. What is more, European cooperation is perceived as an important instrument in the fight against the pandemic and protection against similar crises in the future. Public support for establishing a new common policy in the realm of health could be used as an argument for reform of the treaties at the forthcoming Conference on the Future of Europe.
Since the beginning of his term of office, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has managed to implement most of his proposals concerning reform of UN management, the development system, and the peace-and-security pillar. In view of the organisation’s difficult financial situation, it is becoming increasingly important to ensure budgetary stability, which is why the implementation of Guterres’ proposal to finance UN activities could bring much needed improvement. This stability is in Poland’s interest because it supports UN activities.
China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific area potentially jeopardises the security and economic interests of Germany. This has led the German government to adopt policy guidelines towards the region with the main element strengthening cooperation with ASEAN members and countries such as India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Although the document signals an evolution of the German strategy regarding China, which is increasingly viewed as a competitor, implementation of the course may be limited by concerns about a deterioration of relations with Germany’s largest trading partner.
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