On 23 September, the European Commission (EC) presented the long-awaited Pact on Migration and Asylum. Considering the mixed nature of migration to Europe, the Commission proposed a new solidarity mechanism. As an alternative to relocation, it allows Member States to pay for returns of people who do not have a right to asylum. The extraordinary mechanism, providing for the relocation of people who were not successfully returned, will most likely spur controversy.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s visits to Lithuania and Latvia (28-30 September) took place during the protests in Belarus, which followed the rigged presidential elections there, and in a time of tensions between the EU and Russia after an attempt to poison Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The visits served mainly to promote the French vision of the EU and its security initiatives, but also confirmed France’s commitment to pro-democratic changes in Belarus.
The more-confrontational-than-expected tone of the European Council (EUCO) conclusions in respect of the negotiations on EU-UK relations after Brexit and the subsequent exchange of statements by both sides (15-18 October) resulted in the talks being stopped at their last stage. Despite the progress noted by negotiators in recent weeks, the scenario of a “no deal” on trade - risky for both sides - may come true because of the ongoing dispute over EU fishing rights in British waters.
Keywords: TSI; Three Seas Initiative; Tallinn; Summit;
The fifth summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held on 19 October amid the ongoing pandemic and growing risk of a further economic slowdown. A remedy for the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe may include the Estonian Smart Connectivity concept. The implementation of projects in the region will be supported by the U.S. - which confirmed its participation in the Three Seas Fund - in proportion to the contribution of other members.
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bolivia; governance; government; left;
The left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS) will take power in Bolivia after a year’s break, based on preliminary results in the parliamentary and presidential elections held on 18 October. MAS is the party of ex-president Evo Morales, who remains in Argentina in asylum. Luis Alberto Arce will be the new president and his government will need to calm the tense internal situation down and tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU’s active support for the peaceful electoral process in Bolivia strengthens the Union’s position as a leading promoter of democracy in Latin America.
The second round of parliamentary elections in Lithuania ended on 25 October. The country’s right wing won in single-member constituencies, which means that the conservative Homeland Union (TS-LKD) will return to power after eight years. Although the foreign policy priorities of this centre-right government will not change the direction substantially, the nuances will be important, determining, among others, the future of relations with Poland.
In September, the selection of a new secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began. It will end by 1 March 2021 at the latest, three months before the end of Mexican Angel Gurria’s third five-year term. The new secretary-general must face significant challenges such as the economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, adaption to climate change, and the development of modern technologies. The President of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid and Polish Minister of Climate and Environment Michał Kurtyka are among those who have submitted their candidacy for the post. The candidates will now seek the support of the Member States.
Zelenskyy’s Defeat - Results of Local Elections in Ukraine
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Zelenskyy; local elections; defeat;
The preliminary results of local elections held on 25 October in Ukraine show a defeat for the ruling Servant of the People party. This will increase tensions between the central government and regions whose powers have increased as a result of local government reform being implemented. It is also possible it will lead to the gradual disintegration of the ruling party in the Verkhovna Rada.
On 26 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed his call for NATO to reciprocate the Russian moratorium on the deployment of ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km in Europe. Russia declared the moratorium after the U.S. left the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019, citing years-long Russian violation. Although the proposal is presented as a way to minimise the consequences of the collapse of the INF and contains new elements, including an offer of mutual verification, it remains unfavourable to NATO. In practice, it would not ensure the absence of Russian ground-launched missiles with this range in Europe.
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons - From a Rallying Cry to Entry into Force
Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English
Keywords: nuclear weapons; prohibition; treaty;
On 24 October, Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Thus, the treaty will enter into force on 22 January 2021. Poland and other NATO states have adopted a negative stance towards the treaty because they are concerned it may undermine the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture. The controversies surrounding the TPNW may hinder the functioning of the most important legal instrument in this area, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Uncertainty as World Waits on U.S. Elections Results
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; elections; president; results;
Election Day in the U.S. is over but the ballot counting continues. The winner of the presidential election and official results may only be known in a few days. However, Donald Trump on election night declared himself the winner and said he would have lawyers arguing at the Supreme Court to suspend the counting of remaining votes to maintain his advantage in some states.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; nuclear power; power plant; energy; policy;
On 7 November, the first block of a new nuclear power plant was put into operation at Astravyets, Belarus. Although this will reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russian gas, from which most of the electricity is currently produced, energy dependence on Russia will increase even more. Belarus will have to buy Russian nuclear fuel and sell electricity to Russia. Some EU countries, prompted by Lithuania, have blocked the possibility of purchasing electricity produced in Belarus.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.
Protests and strikes against the rigging of results of the presidential elections in Belarus and the brutality of the police in suppressing the post-election demonstrations are still ongoing. The actions of the Belarusian government have resulted in a significant deterioration in the country’s relations with the EU and the U.S. In turn, Belarus will become more dependent on Russia, which may lead to the country’s progressive loss of independence.
Keywords: Coup d’état; Mali; Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta; arrest;
The unpopular president of Mali, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, was arrested by rebel soldiers and then resigned. The military promised a quick handover of power to civilians. The political crisis will hinder European military engagement in this key African country.
On 13 August, in a tripartite statement issued jointly with the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the normalisation of relations was announced. The decision suspends Israel’s plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. It is also a significant political success for Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
On 10 August, Turkey sent the Oruç Reis research vessel into Mediterranean waters claimed by Greece as lying within its continental shelf. The ship is escorted by the Turkish navy, which prompted Greece to put its army on high alert. Turkey’s actions come as a response to a maritime delimitation deal between Greece and Egypt. The agreement also resulted in the collapse of talks between Greece and Turkey, sponsored by Germany and aimed at de-escalating relations between the states.
On 4 August, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in the port warehouses in Beirut. Given the port’s crucial importance for Lebanese trade, the explosion, which destroyed port infrastructure and parts of the city, will deepen the economic crisis in Lebanon. This may affect the decision of foreign donors to pay some of the support measures for Lebanon declared in 2018 at the CEDRE conference.
Pentagon Outlines Concept for the Relocation of U.S. Troops from Germany
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA: Germany; U.S. Troops; relocation; concept;
On 29 July, the U.S. defence department presented a concept for the reduction of the American military presence in Germany from around 36,000 to 24,000 troops. Almost half of the forces set to be withdrawn will be relocated within Europe and the rest returned to the U.S., while rotational deployments to Europe are to increase. The Pentagon has stated that these steps will bolster NATO and deterrence of Russia, although in fact they are largely the result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s June decision to punish Germany for insufficient defence spending, and the concept is intended to minimise the negative effects of that announcement. Implementation of the plans in their entirety is, however, uncertain, given the time needed to fully develop and implement them and the possible change of U.S. administration after the November presidential election.
The main topics of the recent EU-India summit were the pandemic, economic cooperation and tensions in the international system, such as the U.S.-China rivalry or the paralysis of the WTO. Although no breakthrough was achieved on a free trade agreement (FTA), the results of the meeting show that India is strengthening its position as a key strategic partner of the EU, sharing democratic values and supporting free trade and multilateralism. It can also be expected that the scope of cooperation will be extended, including in security issues.
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