Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons - From a Rallying Cry to Entry into Force
Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English
Keywords: nuclear weapons; prohibition; treaty;
On 24 October, Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Thus, the treaty will enter into force on 22 January 2021. Poland and other NATO states have adopted a negative stance towards the treaty because they are concerned it may undermine the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture. The controversies surrounding the TPNW may hinder the functioning of the most important legal instrument in this area, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Uncertainty as World Waits on U.S. Elections Results
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; elections; president; results;
Election Day in the U.S. is over but the ballot counting continues. The winner of the presidential election and official results may only be known in a few days. However, Donald Trump on election night declared himself the winner and said he would have lawyers arguing at the Supreme Court to suspend the counting of remaining votes to maintain his advantage in some states.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; nuclear power; power plant; energy; policy;
On 7 November, the first block of a new nuclear power plant was put into operation at Astravyets, Belarus. Although this will reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russian gas, from which most of the electricity is currently produced, energy dependence on Russia will increase even more. Belarus will have to buy Russian nuclear fuel and sell electricity to Russia. Some EU countries, prompted by Lithuania, have blocked the possibility of purchasing electricity produced in Belarus.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.
Protests and strikes against the rigging of results of the presidential elections in Belarus and the brutality of the police in suppressing the post-election demonstrations are still ongoing. The actions of the Belarusian government have resulted in a significant deterioration in the country’s relations with the EU and the U.S. In turn, Belarus will become more dependent on Russia, which may lead to the country’s progressive loss of independence.
Keywords: Coup d’état; Mali; Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta; arrest;
The unpopular president of Mali, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, was arrested by rebel soldiers and then resigned. The military promised a quick handover of power to civilians. The political crisis will hinder European military engagement in this key African country.
On 13 August, in a tripartite statement issued jointly with the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the normalisation of relations was announced. The decision suspends Israel’s plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. It is also a significant political success for Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
On 10 August, Turkey sent the Oruç Reis research vessel into Mediterranean waters claimed by Greece as lying within its continental shelf. The ship is escorted by the Turkish navy, which prompted Greece to put its army on high alert. Turkey’s actions come as a response to a maritime delimitation deal between Greece and Egypt. The agreement also resulted in the collapse of talks between Greece and Turkey, sponsored by Germany and aimed at de-escalating relations between the states.
On 4 August, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in the port warehouses in Beirut. Given the port’s crucial importance for Lebanese trade, the explosion, which destroyed port infrastructure and parts of the city, will deepen the economic crisis in Lebanon. This may affect the decision of foreign donors to pay some of the support measures for Lebanon declared in 2018 at the CEDRE conference.
Pentagon Outlines Concept for the Relocation of U.S. Troops from Germany
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA: Germany; U.S. Troops; relocation; concept;
On 29 July, the U.S. defence department presented a concept for the reduction of the American military presence in Germany from around 36,000 to 24,000 troops. Almost half of the forces set to be withdrawn will be relocated within Europe and the rest returned to the U.S., while rotational deployments to Europe are to increase. The Pentagon has stated that these steps will bolster NATO and deterrence of Russia, although in fact they are largely the result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s June decision to punish Germany for insufficient defence spending, and the concept is intended to minimise the negative effects of that announcement. Implementation of the plans in their entirety is, however, uncertain, given the time needed to fully develop and implement them and the possible change of U.S. administration after the November presidential election.
European Council Adopts New Multiannual Budget and Recovery Fund
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: EC; European Council; Economy; Policy; Budget; Recovery Fund;
After more than 90 hours of negotiations, on 21 July the European Council reached a compromise on the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NG) recovery instrument.
Launch of the First Arab Interplanetary Mission - Hope
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: UAE; Interplanetary Mission; Hope;
On 20 July, the United Arab Emirates Space Agency sent a probe to Mars, an event that marked the first Arab interplanetary mission. UAE is now the Arab leader in space exploration. This role coincides with the country’s efforts to gain political domination in the region. The UAE’s investments in the space industry also indicate that it is part of its efforts to diversify the state’s sources of income and tighten cooperation with allies. The EU can use the European Space Agency (ESA) and its expertise to strengthen its position in relations with the UAE, which so far has been cooperating mainly with Asian partners.
The main topics of the recent EU-India summit were the pandemic, economic cooperation and tensions in the international system, such as the U.S.-China rivalry or the paralysis of the WTO. Although no breakthrough was achieved on a free trade agreement (FTA), the results of the meeting show that India is strengthening its position as a key strategic partner of the EU, sharing democratic values and supporting free trade and multilateralism. It can also be expected that the scope of cooperation will be extended, including in security issues.
The presidential campaign has exposed tensions between the government and the opposition, and an increasing part of the public. The Central Election Commission’s (CEC) failure to register two candidates, Viktar Babaryka and Valeryj Capkala, by the 14 July deadline triggered significant protests across Belarus, which were suppressed by police forces including OMON. Repressions against civil society and the pacification of further demonstrations, especially on election day, will worsen Belarus’ relations with the EU and the U.S. Russia is using the events to weaken President Alexander Lukashenko to take advantage of the situation.
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Macedonia; elections; parliament; 2020;
The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) won in parliamentary elections in North Macedonia on 13-15 July. Despite this, maintaining the current coalition is not obvious. The main tasks of the new government will be to alleviate the second wave of the coronavirus, revive the economy, and strengthen the rule of law for integration with the European Union.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: CAATSA; legislation; Nord Stream 2;
On 15 July, the U.S. State Department updated the public guidance for some parts of the 2017 CAATSA legislation. The move signals that the U.S. is ready to impose sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Significantly, this was Trump administration initiative, which so far has been reluctant to take strong measures against NS2. Almost certainly it will meet with greater effort by some EU countries to counter the U.S. sanctions.
Putin Forever? Russians Vote to Change the Constitution
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Constitution; Change; Vote;
On 1 July, Russians across the country finished voting on amendments to the constitution of the Russian Federation, with 77.9% of votes approving the changes. Under the amendments, President Vladimir Putin gained the opportunity to hold office until 2036. However, the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic may hamper his chances in future presidential elections.
The End of “One Country, Two Systems” in Hong Kong
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hong Kong; China; Security; Governance;
On 30 June, the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress adopted the Hong Kong National Security Law, and Chairman Xi Jinping signed it. It entered into force on 1 July. In selected cases, it violates Hong Kong’s jurisdictional independence under the “one state, two systems” principle reflected in the legally binding Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 regarding the transfer of the region to China.
Keywords: USA: Poland; foreign policy; Washington meeting; COVID-19; energy;
On June 24, Polish President Andrzej Duda met with President Donald Trump at the White House. The visit concerned Polish-American defence and energy cooperation, as well as new technology and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the joint statement by the presidents included no new decisions, it confirms the will of both states to further deepen strategic cooperation, including on issues related to nuclear energy. It also criticized the false vision of the history of World War II Russia has been promoting strongly in recent years.
The most serious clashes on the border between China and India in 50 years threatens to destabilise the region and worsen relations between the two Asian nuclear powers. Although the risk of armed conflict is small, the tensions are significant to the U.S.-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific.
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