The presidential campaign has exposed tensions between the government and the opposition, and an increasing part of the public. The Central Election Commission’s (CEC) failure to register two candidates, Viktar Babaryka and Valeryj Capkala, by the 14 July deadline triggered significant protests across Belarus, which were suppressed by police forces including OMON. Repressions against civil society and the pacification of further demonstrations, especially on election day, will worsen Belarus’ relations with the EU and the U.S. Russia is using the events to weaken President Alexander Lukashenko to take advantage of the situation.
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Macedonia; elections; parliament; 2020;
The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) won in parliamentary elections in North Macedonia on 13-15 July. Despite this, maintaining the current coalition is not obvious. The main tasks of the new government will be to alleviate the second wave of the coronavirus, revive the economy, and strengthen the rule of law for integration with the European Union.
Putin Forever? Russians Vote to Change the Constitution
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Constitution; Change; Vote;
On 1 July, Russians across the country finished voting on amendments to the constitution of the Russian Federation, with 77.9% of votes approving the changes. Under the amendments, President Vladimir Putin gained the opportunity to hold office until 2036. However, the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic may hamper his chances in future presidential elections.
The End of “One Country, Two Systems” in Hong Kong
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hong Kong; China; Security; Governance;
On 30 June, the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress adopted the Hong Kong National Security Law, and Chairman Xi Jinping signed it. It entered into force on 1 July. In selected cases, it violates Hong Kong’s jurisdictional independence under the “one state, two systems” principle reflected in the legally binding Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 regarding the transfer of the region to China.
Keywords: USA: Poland; foreign policy; Washington meeting; COVID-19; energy;
On June 24, Polish President Andrzej Duda met with President Donald Trump at the White House. The visit concerned Polish-American defence and energy cooperation, as well as new technology and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the joint statement by the presidents included no new decisions, it confirms the will of both states to further deepen strategic cooperation, including on issues related to nuclear energy. It also criticized the false vision of the history of World War II Russia has been promoting strongly in recent years.
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; South Korea; foreign policy; tensions; communication;
North Korea’s cutting of all communication lines with South Korea and blowing up the liaison office in Kaesong on 16 June are part of the months-long deterioration of relations between the countries. The North’s actions may pressure the South, divert attention from internal problems and strengthen the position of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, in the North’s hierarchy.
The most serious clashes on the border between China and India in 50 years threatens to destabilise the region and worsen relations between the two Asian nuclear powers. Although the risk of armed conflict is small, the tensions are significant to the U.S.-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific.
Putin’s Vision of History and the Future of International Relations
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: International relations; foreign policy; vision of history; future; Vladimir Putin;
On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; China; Summit; Agenda 2025; policy;
The EU-China Summit was held online on 22 June. However, the failure of the sides to adopt a joint statement and the “Agenda 2025”, a new programme of bilateral cooperation, as well as the EU’s dissatisfaction with the implementation of last year’s arrangements, confirm the continuation in the Union of a sharpened policy course towards China. In the coming weeks, it is possible that the economic dimension of the EU’s China policy may tighten.
On 27 June, the new coalition government of the Republic of Ireland, led by Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, received a vote of confidence. However, it does not include Sinn Fein, which won the last general election. The formation of the government closes the longest coalition talks in decades, which lasted from the Dail Eireann elections on 8 February.
Keywords: USA: Germany; military presence; reduction;
On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.
Ali Kushayb, wanted since 2007 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with his role in the war in Darfur, Sudan, has been arrested and taken to The Hague. His arrest increases the likelihood of the extradition of the overthrown president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, and at the same time, strengthens the court in the face of the dispute with the United States.
On 2 June, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree titled the “Foundations of Russian Federation State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence”. The document indicates, among others, that Russia recognises as key to its security countering the strengthening of NATO’s Eastern Flank. It also makes clear that Russia may decide to use nuclear weapons if state functions fail because of an external attack.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; sanctions; Nord Stream 2; energy; gas; threat;
Five U.S. Senators from both parties announced on 4 June that they had introduced in Congress a new bill to amend the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act of December 2019. The changes clarify and expand the list of activities related to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. Entities engaged in those activities will face sanctions. This legislation still must be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by the president, but the threat of its adoption will most likely cause new serious troubles for Gazprom with finishing and commissioning NS2.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Government; reshuffle; Council of Ministers; Dismissal;
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka dismissed the Council of Ministers on 3 June and the next day announced the appointment of a new cabinet. Roman Golovchenko, the former head of the State Military-Industrial Committee, was appointed prime minister. The reconstruction of the government is part of Lukashenko’s presidential campaign.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
The centenary of the Treaty of Trianon, signed on 4 June 1920, coincides with the rejection of the next project of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) to establish territorial autonomy for Szeklerland, a region of Transylvania mainly inhabited by Hungarians. At the sometime, the Romanian authorities and the opposition use society’s fear of Hungarian separatism to gain political capital.
On 30 May, the defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain issued a joint letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and their counterparts in the EU Member States. The letter proposes to deepen the recent reforms of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).
Keywords: USA: WHO; leaving; COVID-19; Donald Trump;
President Donald Trump announced on 29 May that the United States is withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). Although he said this decision was based on supposed Chinese control of the WHO and the body’s refusal to undertake reforms demanded by the U.S., the reason also could be his aim to divert American public attention from his administration’s negligence in the fight against COVID-19. The U.S. must let a year lapse between notification and withdrawal and pay any outstanding contributions before it fully exits. From Poland’s perspective, the U.S. leaving the WHO is unfavourable because it reduces the chances of broader reform of the body.
The Bureau of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the governments of the United Kingdom and Italy decided on 1 April to postpone this year’s COP26 climate summit until next year, without specifying a new date. It was to take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. Changing the date of the summit will make it harder to increase the ambition of climate action.
Can One Govern from an Intensive Care Ward? The Case of Boris Johnson
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: Boris Johnson; intensive care; COVID-19;
On 6 April, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted to the intensive care unit of a London hospital, the first leader to fall critically ill during the COVID-19 pandemic. This has initiated a procedure for establishing a temporary chain of command.
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