Putin’s Vision of History and the Future of International Relations
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: International relations; foreign policy; vision of history; future; Vladimir Putin;
On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.
On 27 June, the new coalition government of the Republic of Ireland, led by Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, received a vote of confidence. However, it does not include Sinn Fein, which won the last general election. The formation of the government closes the longest coalition talks in decades, which lasted from the Dail Eireann elections on 8 February.
Keywords: USA: Germany; military presence; reduction;
On 15 June, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed earlier reports that he plans to reduce U.S. forces in Germany from around 34,500 to 25,000 troops. Although the decision is related to U.S.- German disputes, it undermines the policy of deterring Russia conducted by Trump’s own administration and NATO. While the specifics and date of the drawdown are not yet known, the announcement of the plan and perspective of weakening U.S. military capabilities in Europe are already deepening transatlantic tensions.
Ali Kushayb, wanted since 2007 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with his role in the war in Darfur, Sudan, has been arrested and taken to The Hague. His arrest increases the likelihood of the extradition of the overthrown president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, and at the same time, strengthens the court in the face of the dispute with the United States.
On 2 June, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree titled the “Foundations of Russian Federation State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence”. The document indicates, among others, that Russia recognises as key to its security countering the strengthening of NATO’s Eastern Flank. It also makes clear that Russia may decide to use nuclear weapons if state functions fail because of an external attack.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; sanctions; Nord Stream 2; energy; gas; threat;
Five U.S. Senators from both parties announced on 4 June that they had introduced in Congress a new bill to amend the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act of December 2019. The changes clarify and expand the list of activities related to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. Entities engaged in those activities will face sanctions. This legislation still must be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by the president, but the threat of its adoption will most likely cause new serious troubles for Gazprom with finishing and commissioning NS2.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Government; reshuffle; Council of Ministers; Dismissal;
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka dismissed the Council of Ministers on 3 June and the next day announced the appointment of a new cabinet. Roman Golovchenko, the former head of the State Military-Industrial Committee, was appointed prime minister. The reconstruction of the government is part of Lukashenko’s presidential campaign.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
The centenary of the Treaty of Trianon, signed on 4 June 1920, coincides with the rejection of the next project of the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) to establish territorial autonomy for Szeklerland, a region of Transylvania mainly inhabited by Hungarians. At the sometime, the Romanian authorities and the opposition use society’s fear of Hungarian separatism to gain political capital.
On 30 May, the defence ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain issued a joint letter to Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and their counterparts in the EU Member States. The letter proposes to deepen the recent reforms of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).
Keywords: USA: WHO; leaving; COVID-19; Donald Trump;
President Donald Trump announced on 29 May that the United States is withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). Although he said this decision was based on supposed Chinese control of the WHO and the body’s refusal to undertake reforms demanded by the U.S., the reason also could be his aim to divert American public attention from his administration’s negligence in the fight against COVID-19. The U.S. must let a year lapse between notification and withdrawal and pay any outstanding contributions before it fully exits. From Poland’s perspective, the U.S. leaving the WHO is unfavourable because it reduces the chances of broader reform of the body.
Chernozem for Sale - The Opening of the Land Market in Ukraine
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Verkhovna Rada; law; land market; Ukraine; agriculture;
On 31 March, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada adopted a law establishing a land market. The lifting of the almost 20-year ban on the trade in agricultural land may accelerate Ukraine’s economic growth, but access to the market for foreign investors is blocked for now.
The Bureau of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the governments of the United Kingdom and Italy decided on 1 April to postpone this year’s COP26 climate summit until next year, without specifying a new date. It was to take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. Changing the date of the summit will make it harder to increase the ambition of climate action.
Can One Govern from an Intensive Care Ward? The Case of Boris Johnson
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: Boris Johnson; intensive care; COVID-19;
On 6 April, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted to the intensive care unit of a London hospital, the first leader to fall critically ill during the COVID-19 pandemic. This has initiated a procedure for establishing a temporary chain of command.
On 7 April, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe declared a state of emergency in seven prefectures amid widespread coronavirus infections. He also announced a record economic stimulus package of around $990 billion.
U.S. Suspends Funding for the World Health Organisation
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; WHO; World Health Organisation; Funding; Suspended;
President Donald Trump on 14 April announced that the U.S. will withhold funding from the World Health Organization (WHO) for 60 to 90 days. A report assessing the organisation's response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be created in this time and its conclusions may be critical in determining whether the funding cut is extended. For years, the U.S. has been the largest donor to the WHO budget (in 2019, its dues and voluntary contributions amounted to more than $400 million of the organisation’s $2.4 billion-a-year budget). The decision is part of a Trump administration strategy to tag WHO with shared responsibility for purportedly concealing information about the epidemic in China.
Parliamentary Elections in South Korea during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: South Korea; COVID-19; pandemic; parliament; elections;
President Moon Jae-in’s Democratic Party won the parliamentary elections held on 15 April in South Korea, winning 60% of the seats. The election results and the highest turnout in 28 years (66%) resulted from the positive social assessment of the authorities’ actions to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and the efficient organisation of the elections in difficult conditions. The ruling party’s win will provide a boost to Moon’s reform policy drive until the end of his term in 2022.
In a judgment issued on 5 May, the German Federal Constitutional Court (CC) questioned the procedures in decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding the purchase of eurozone bonds. The judgment, however, concerns not only monetary policy - crucial to combating the current economic crisis - but also the division of competences between the EU and its Member States.
European Union-Western Balkans Summit in the Shadow of the Pandemic
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Western Balkans; Summit; pandemic; COVID-19;
The summit of the EU and the Western Balkans, which was to take place in Zagreb, was held on 6 May by teleconference. It focused on Union assistance to the Balkans in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. This reveals not only the need of the moment but also the weak dynamics of the EU enlargement process.
German Regulator Denies Derogation for Nord Stream 2
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; regulator; derogation; Nord Stream 2; gas;
German regulator BNetzA on 15 May rejected the application by the Gazprom-owned company Nord Stream 2 AG (NS2AG) for a derogation for Nord Stream 2 (NS2). This meansNS2 has not been granted exceptions from the main rules of the EU’s Gas Directive. As a result, Gazprom will have limited control over the pipeline, which must function in line with EU law (as Poland and others have argued). However, NS2AG plans to appeal the decision. If unsuccessful in court, Gazprom and the Russian authorities might try to circumvent the Gas Directive.
On 21 May, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. will withdraw from the Treaty on Open Skies (OST), a multilateral agreement that allows confidence-building observation flights over the territories of its parties. The U.S. has accused Russia of repeated violations of the treaty. The validity of the accusations aside, the withdrawal will be used by Russia in propaganda and may be a factor pushing some European states to develop an independent approach to arms control with Russia.
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