On 18 May, France and Germany presented their initiative to finance economic recovery in the EU after the COVID-19 crisis by issuing joint bonds. This is a chance for a breakthrough in the ongoing dispute over support methods for pandemic-hit economies. France and Germany also sent a political signal: the Elysian alliance still wants to play a leading role in the EU.
In a government work report presented on 22 May during a session of the 13th Chinese parliament, Premier Li Keqiang did not specify the 2020 economic growth target, the first time that has happened since 1990. The reason is the uncertain global economic situation because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government plans to increase economic stimulus measures to primarily stabilise the labour market.
An agreement on the future of gas transit via Ukraine was reached by the Ukrainian and Russian parties on 30 December and it should be seen as a success of Ukraine and the European Commission. The application of EU rules means a more transparent gas transit system to the European Union. The successful outcome of the negotiations for Ukraine also strengthens Poland’s arguments about the need to apply transparent EU rules to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (NS2).
On 1 February, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk. He met with President Alexander Lukashenka and Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei. It was the first visit by an American secretary of state to Belarus in 26 years. Pompeo’s visit demonstrates U.S. interest in cooperation with Belarus, including in the energy sphere.
Austria’s Christian Democrats and Greens Form Government
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Austria; Christian Democrats; Greens; government;
In Austria, the first government of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Green Party has been formed. Its swearing-in on 7 January marked the end of the transitional cabinet, functioning since May last year, of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein and the return to this position of Sebastian Kurz, the ÖVP leader. Significant differences between the coalition partners—mainly on the subject of migration - required essential programme compromises. The Greens’ entry into the government will translate into even more ambitious Austrian climate policy.
On 7 January, the Spanish parliament supported forming a government led by Pedro Sánchez under the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos (UP). This marks the end of a 10-month-long period of temporary government and the beginning of the first coalition cabinet since 1939. However, achieving the new government’s programme will depend on support from separatist parties, something that can weaken the government’s position in the country and in European politics.
President Tsai Ing-wen from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which opposes mainland policy, won re-election and secured a majority in the legislature in the presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan on 11 January. The results mean failure of the PRC’s policy towards Taiwan, signal a decrease in Taiwan's dependence on mainland China, and dismissal of the prospect of reunification under China’s “one country, two systems” principle.
After the start of an investigation, on 11 January 2020, the government of Iran officially admitted its forces had mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian International Air passenger plane (Flight PS752) three days earlier, killing all 176 passengers and crew. The tragedy occurred during the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and happened a few hours after an Iranian ballistic missile attack on American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani. The shooting down of Flight PS752 may have a serious impact on Iran’s image and international position and the government’s internal legitimacy.
On 15 January, the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech to both houses of parliament, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and the cabinet resigned. Medvedev is succeeded by Mikhail Mishustin, the former head of the Federal Tax Service (FTS). The reconstruction of the government will not change Russian policy, as the president remains responsible for policymaking until the end of his term in 2024.
The United States and China concluded a preliminary trade agreement (“phase-one deal”) on 15 January. Both sides consider it a success. China has agreed, among others, to increase purchases of U.S. goods by $200 billion in two years and the U.S. will refrain from raising customs duties on imports from China. The scope of the contract is narrower than originally planned by the Trump administration.
The U.S. plan for Israel and Palestine will not lead to peace. If implemented without negotiations with the Palestinians, it will violate international law. In the short term, it will instil Israeli occupation and weaken American mediating capabilities. In the long term, it may, however, result in greater European efforts towards a just peace.
The European Commission (EC) has published a “toolbox” of rules to guarantee the security of 5G infrastructure in Europe. They are intended to minimise the risks of espionage and leaks of sensitive data. The document is the result of an agreement between the Member States on cooperation criteria with contractors for 5G construction in the EU but it does not exclude any particular entity from the development of fifth-generation telecommunications infrastructure.
The consequence of the political crisis in Thuringia is Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s resignation as CDU president and from seeking the party’s nomination to be the chancellor candidate during the next elections to the Bundestag. Her decision increases the risk of the break-up of the government coalition. This threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Germany and weaken its position in the EU.
On 21 February, elections to the unicameral and 290-member parliament of Iran - the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majles) - were held. Despite the officially low turnout of 42.5%, the work of counting stations was extended by an additional six hours and the announcement of the election result was also delayed. The elections were manipulated at all stages of the process and boycotted by a large part of the public, which may be a sign of the further deepening of the internal crisis. Iranians are disappointed in the ineffectiveness of the political regime to resolve real problems in society and the abuses of the security apparatus.
Trump in India - Building a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA: India; Foreign Policy; Donald Trump;
The first state visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to India on 24 - 25 February confirmed the importance of India as a key strategic partner of the Americans, despite the unresolved trade disputes. Trump also aimed to win over some voters in the November presidential election among the Indian diaspora in the U.S.
The Taliban-U.S. Agreement - Still a Long Way to Peace
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; USA; Taliban; Agreement;
The agreement signed in Qatar on 29 February does not end the war in Afghanistan but facilitates the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. The deal weakens the official authorities in Kabul and strengthens the Taliban ahead of planned peace talks. It may, however, increase President Donald Trump’s re-election chances.
Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; government; change; economy;
On 4 March, the Ukrainian parliament accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and approved a new government led by Denys Shmyhal. The government reshuffle came in response to the deepening crisis of confidence in the Ukrainian authorities, partly because of the public’s overstated expectations of President Volodymyr Zelensky, especially for the rapid improvement of the economic situation.
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; Russia; Syria; Agreement;
During a meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, which took place on 5 March in Moscow, a ceasefire in Idlib was established. The agreement postpones the takeover of the entire province by the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad but it sanctions its territorial gains in Idlib’s south. In the following weeks, the situation in Idlib will remain unstable. Turkey, fearing the resumption of Assad’s offensive, will strengthen its efforts to get EU and NATO support for establishing a security zone in the north of Idlib.
The swearing-in to office of Igor Matovič on 21 March ends the many years of rule by Smer-Social Democracy (Smer). As a result of the last parliamentary elections in Europe (29 February) before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the new government was formed by four right-wing parties: Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), We Are Family, and For People.
In connection with the coronavirus pandemic, the Hungarian government intends to extend indefinitely regulations adopted under a “state of danger” declared on 11 March. The bill authorising it to do so would give the government unprecedented powers, including limiting constitutional freedoms. The vote on the bill is scheduled for 31 March. Adoption requires a two-thirds majority, which means that the ruling party can adopt it alone.
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