Assumptions of U.S. Policy Towards China - Defence of the International Order Rather than Regime Change
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; China; regime change; international order;
On 26 May, Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented the assumptions of U.S. policy towards China. He described that country’s actions, above all its ambitions and real possibilities of changing the international order, as the main, long-term challenge to the global order. The way to deal with the challenges China presents, he argued, is to strengthen the U.S. potential, especially its competitiveness and innovation, along with cooperation with allies and partners primarily from Europe and Asia to effectively compete with China.
The UK’s “Migration Deal” with Rwanda Enters into Force
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK; Rwanda; migration; foreign policy;
According to an announcement by the UK authorities, the first group of detained irregular migrants, mainly from the Middle East and Central Asia, is to be transferred to Rwanda on 14 June under a controversial agreement between the two countries. Some of the detainees have started a hunger strike. The agreement shifts the UK’s responsibility for the migrants to a third country in exchange for short-term benefits, while merely simulating systemic solutions.
After lengthy negotiations, the EU Member States approved the scope of the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. The restrictions include a ban on imports of Russian oil and are intended to cut off the aggressor from key revenues in trade with the West. The use of this sanctioning instrument, while deemed necessary, is nevertheless problematic for many countries, as reflected by the numerous derogations. The consequences of implementing these restrictions will be felt not only by Russians but also by EU citizens, and their actual effectiveness can be assessed only in a few months.
Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga
Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Three Seas Initiative; Riga; Summit; TSI; region; competitiveness; Ukraine; war;
On 20-21 June, the 7th Summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held in Riga, attended by representatives of all countries involved in this format. They focused on actions to increase the effectiveness of the TSI and the competitiveness of the region, but also discussed security issues and a commitment to Ukraine, which has been granted participating partner status in the initiative. The importance of TSI cooperation with the U.S. and Germany is also growing. During the summit, the Polish-Latvian Chamber of Commerce was unveiled.
The leaders of NATO have approved a new strategy that should help the Alliance adapt to the threats posed by Russia and the increasing rivalry with China. They also made concrete decisions to strengthen defence and deterrence that largely correspond to the appeals of the Eastern Flank countries, including Poland.
G7 Summit in Germany - Support for Ukraine and Combating the Global Effects of Russia’s Aggression
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; aggression; G7; Germany; global effects; Ukraine; war;
On 26-28 June, a meeting of the leaders of the G7 countries took place at Elmau Castle in Bavaria. The key topics were the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy and food crisis. The summit showed the group’s consistency with regard to Russia’s aggression and global challenges, although some of the decisions made are not very ambitious. It will be important for the long-term effectiveness of the G7 to involve partners from other parts of the world, including developing countries, which is one reason for the guest participation in the meeting of the leaders of Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Senegal.
The NATO Madrid summit decisions were described by the Russian authorities as confirmation of the Alliance’s hostile policy towards Russia. At the same time, their reaction was subdued, which does not mean, however, that they are disregarding the decisions made by the Alliance. In response to NATO increasing deterrence and defence capabilities on the Eastern Flank, Russia is likely to further strengthen the Western Military District and deepen its military integration with Belarus. The dislocation of more Russian troops to Belarusian territory will create new challenges for regional security.
The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the Beginning of July
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; July; military situation; 2022;
On 4 July, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian troops had taken full control of Luhansk Oblast, achieving one of Russia’s main initial goals of the military operation in Ukraine. In the near future, its forces will concentrate on capturing the entire Donetsk region and will continue shelling the Kharkiv and Odesa regions and conducting operations in the south of Ukraine. Given the difficult situation of the Ukrainian troops, it is necessary to maintain or even increase the amount and speed of deliveries of Western weapons, including artillery systems, along with training of crews and assistance in the treatment of the wounded.
Fighting for Johnson’s Heritage - The Election of a New Tory Leader
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK; elections; Boris Johnson; foreign policy;
On 11 July, the Conservative Party announced the rules for electing a new leader. This is a consequence of Boris Johnson’s resignation from the leadership of the party (7 July). The new leader will be announced on 5 September and then appointed British prime minister by the queen. The election will affect, among others, the model of EU-UK relations after Brexit and British policy towards the war in Ukraine. The new prime minister will announce their government’s agenda at the 2022 Conservative Party Conference one month later.
Keywords: Sri Lanka; politics; economy; crisis; Rajapaksa clan;
After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned. This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.
Author(s): Sara Nowacka,Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Joe Biden; Middle East; foreign policy; security;
On 13-16 July, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Saudi Arabia. The main aim of his visit was to assure U.S. allies that it will continue to engage in security issues in the Middle East and to encourage them to give greater support for U.S. policy towards regional and global challenges.
The Communication from the European Commission (EC) published on 20 July calls for a reduction in EU consumption of natural gas. The call is prompted by the ongoing energy crisis, pressure from Gazprom, and the risk of gas shortages in winter. Member States are encouraged to implement mechanisms to save energy and gas and cooperate in a spirit of solidarity. However, ensuring sufficient supplies through winter will require not only the commitment of governments but also of businesses and societies.
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK; elections; prime minister;
On 20 July, Conservative MPs selected Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak as candidates for the party’s new leader and, consequently, the next British prime minister. This opens the second phase of the election of the successor to Boris Johnson, when all party members vote for one candidate, and allows the identification of future challenges for the United Kingdom’s relationship with the EU and Poland.
Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; grain; export; global economy;
At the initiative of the UN Secretary-General, the countries of Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiye reached an agreement on 22 July to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. However, the resumption of trade is not a foregone conclusion and will depend primarily on the goodwill of the Russian side, which may sabotage the implementation of the agreement by military means.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited four African countries on 23-27 July. The aim of his tour was to break Russia’s international isolation and maintain African states’ positive neutrality towards it, as well as to promote Russia’s narrative of the West’s “responsibility” for triggering the food crisis because of sanctions.
On 31 July, Vladimir Putin approved Russia’s new maritime doctrine. Compared to the one from 2015, this update is definitely more confrontational with the U.S. and NATO. It identifies the Arctic as the most important region in which Russian interests are to be secured. This means that Russian military activity in the Far North will increase, which, like the declared strengthening of Russia’s naval capabilities in the Baltic Sea, will create tensions with NATO countries.
Ukraine and Moldova synchronised their electricity grids with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area (CESA) on 16 March. This will increase the stability of their power systems and eliminate dependence on Russia. Synchronisation with Ukraine will not affect the operation of the Polish system.
Russia is widely using its conventional missile arsenal against Ukraine. The intense use of these weapons against targets in the western part of the country raises the risk of accidental strikes on NATO territory, although the possibility of intentional strikes cannot be excluded. NATO has implemented a few steps to strengthen missile defences on its Eastern Flank, but a much better explanation of its capabilities is needed to reassure Alliance publics, as are augmented capabilities to deter Russia from regional escalation.
Xi-Biden Meeting: China Maintains Support for Russia
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Joe Biden; Xi Jinping; foreign policy; Russia;
The online meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Chairman Xi Jinping on 18 March confirmed China’s readiness to strengthen cooperation with the Russian Federation in the context of the war in Ukraine. In response to the U.S. warnings against supporting Russia, Xi claimed the U.S. was responsible for the outbreak of the war and called on it to negotiate with Russia. He also expressed concerns about the stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, accusing the U.S. of supporting groups backing Taiwan’s independence.
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Joe Biden; NATO; EU; G7; foreign policy;
On 24 and 25 March, U.S. President Joe Biden met in Brussels with his counterparts from NATO, the G7, and EU countries and with the heads of these institutions. Biden is trying to persuade European countries to impose further sanctions on Russia and cut off its energy resources. The U.S. pledged to help with the transition by strengthening cooperation in the energy sector and taking joint initiatives to prevent a global food crisis.
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