Keywords: Brussels; NATO; Summit; Ukraine; military support;
An extraordinary NATO leaders summit on the war in Ukraine was held on 24 March in Brussels. The allies decided, among others, to strengthen the NATO military presence on the Eastern Flank and to increase military support for Ukraine. The Alliance is also working on long-term adaptation to the threat posed by Russia, but decisions on this issue are to be approved at the June summit in Madrid.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Poland; Joe Biden; Visit; foreign policy; security; economy;
On 25-26 March, U.S. President Joe Biden paid a working visit to Poland. The key element of his trip was a speech he delivered in Warsaw in which he emphasised the U.S. readiness to fulfil its allied obligations and recalled the concept of American leadership in defence of the international rules-based order. The U.S. focus on the security situation on NATO’s Eastern Flank, in particular the strengthening of the Alliance military presence and rearming Ukraine, does not change the main thrust of American foreign policy, which is the competition with China.
On 28 March, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for Vladimir Putin, ruled out the use of nuclear weapons during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This apparent softening of rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons does not mean, however, that Russia will stop using nuclear threats. Russia’s aim is still to maintain ambiguity regarding the actual threshold for use of nuclear weapons. While the danger of nuclear escalation would be real in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict, both NATO and Russia want to avoid such a development. The Russian threats should therefore not stop the West from increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions.
Ukrainian losses resulting from the Russian invasion have already been estimated at hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars. Taking into account the costs incurred by Ukraine in previous years as a result of the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the total losses have likely exceeded $1 trillion. Ukraine will not be able to rebuild on its own and will need foreign assistance. Collecting war reparations from Russia will be crucial in this respect.
The Military Situation in Ukraine after Five Weeks of Fighting
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; military situation; war; fifth week;
On 30 March, Russia intensified its military activities in eastern Ukraine. Contrary to its announcements, Russia has not yet withdrawn significant numbers of forces from the vicinity of Kyiv and instead is regrouping in the north of Ukraine. The greater intensity of the fighting in eastern Ukraine indicates that Russia is determined to occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts for the long term.
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; air defence; war; Russia; invasion;
So far Russia has been unable to gain full control and dominance of Ukraine’s airspace despite its quantitative edge in airplanes and air defence systems. Ukraine has not only preserved the majority of its medium-range airdefence systems but also uses very effective short-range and low-altitude defences. These systems complicate and neutralise close-air support for Russia’s land forces; however, the West must do more to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences. NATO can draw a few preliminary lessons from the Russian use of air power against Ukraine.
From the first days of Russia’s latest aggression against Ukraine, it has been using terror against the civilian population as a strategy of pressure on the Ukrainian society and government. The crimes revealed at the beginning of April in towns near Kyiv, including in Bucha, are confirmation of this Russian policy. Once the evidence is gathered, the aim of the international community should be to bring those responsible to justice.
During the EU-China virtual summit on 1 April, representatives of the European Union presented to Chinese leaders the consequences that China may suffer by providing Russia with economic and military support. Bilateral issues were also discussed, including Chinese economic restrictions on Lithuania. The summit confirmed China’s reluctance to change its confrontational policy.
The results of the first round of the presidential election in France on 10 April came in as expected. Emmanuel Macron took first place with 27.9% of the vote (9.8 million votes). Marine Le Pen managed to convince more than 8 million voters to back her, gaining 23.2% of the total vote. This secured her ballot in the second round on 24 April when she will face the incumbent president. Voter turnout was higher than expected and amounted to almost 75%. Macron’s success in the voting will be determined by his appeal to the left-wing electorate and opening his electoral programme to social issues.
Iran’s cautious approach towards Russia’s war with Ukraine, and its lack of condemnation, are a result of the “strategic partnership” between Russia and Iran, and of hostility to the United States. Iran will not actively support Russia, despite two decades of this partnership and both countries’ claims that the war is the fault of the U.S. and NATO. Regional concerns in the context of an anticipated reduction in Russia’s military presence in Syria and Armenia, and prospects of the removal of U.S. sanctions (with the possible renewal of nuclear deal conditions) are crucial influences on Iran’s attitude.
On 7 April, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the president of Yemen, a state mired in a civil war since 2014, resigned amid a fall in support for him among the anti-Houthi forces, the deteriorating living conditions in territories under his government’s control, and pressure from Gulf states. Hadi’s resignation may lead to increased coherence among the Houthis’ opponents in the short term, but strife between the factions will resume if the peace process does not progress quickly.
The Military Situation in Ukraine after Seven Weeks of Fighting
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; seven weeks; fighting; military situation;
Since the beginning of April, Russia has been focusing on operations mainly in the east and, to a lesser extent, the south of Ukraine, while it has withdrawn its forces from the north of the country, including the vicinity of Kyiv. This shows that the priorities of military action have changed and are now focused on the occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, including Mariupol, and maintaining their position in the south of Ukraine. Until it attains these goals and declares its operation a success, Russia will be unlikely to suspend the hostilities.
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA: Ukraine; aid; foreign policy; military equipment;
On 21 April, U.S. President Joe Biden announced further actions aimed at helping Ukraine. The U.S. is constantly pressing its allies to take similar steps, such as the transfer of armaments, including heavy weapons, as well as financial, economic, and humanitarian aid. The U.S. seeks to forge allied unity in order to maintain Russia’s international isolation, both through sanctions and by providing Ukraine with military equipment so it can effectively defend itself.
Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election on April 24, 2022, obtaining 58.54% of the vote. While Macron's advantage is higher than expected, it was achieved with a lower turnout, which is evidence of a declining interest in political life in France, especially among young people. The newest challenges for the president will be to maintain the majority in the National Assembly after the June elections, and to continue reforms to increase the competitiveness of the French economy in the difficult macroeconomic conditions.
The Military Situation in Ukraine after Nine Weeks of Fighting
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; military situation; war; Russia; nine weeks;
Despite the formal launch of the second stage of the offensive against Ukraine on 19 April, Russia has failed so far to break through the Ukrainian defences in the east of the country. Intense fighting is taking place there but no significant change in the military situation should be expected in the near future. At the same time, it is increasingly important to supply Ukraine not only with defensive weapons but also other weapon systems such as tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles to allow it to maintain a defensive position and mount possible counterattacks. At a conference in Rammstein, Germany, on 26 April, Western countries agreed to increase and coordinate such support.
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; war; Russia; heavy artillery; need; weapons aid;
On 26 April, the U.S. initiated the Ukraine Contact Group, which will coordinate military equipment and weapons aid from at least 43 states to Ukraine. One of the group’s priorities will be to provide heavy artillery and ammunition, which are critical to Ukraine’s defence. With the focus of Russia’s operations on the east and south of Ukraine, the defenders are running out of artillery systems and munitions, which should be re-filled quickly. The role of artillery in Russia’s operational art and tactics also have implications for defence planning for the Eastern Flank of NATO.
Israel’s stance on Russia’s latest aggression against Ukraine remains cautious. The Israeli government is providing political support to Ukraine, focusing on humanitarian aid and assistance for the Jewish population, but avoids directly condemning Russia. Israel’s neutral stance may allow it to play a mediating role but the effectiveness of these actions remains limited.
In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia has supported its neighbour diplomatically with humanitarian aid and military resources. The war in the country next door, particularly the inflow of refugees, is a logistical challenge for the Slovak authorities as well as politically because of ongoing internal disputes. However, it represents another political and social breakthrough in terms of defining Slovakia’s national security and the perception of Russia in the country.
Keywords: Ukraine; war; oil; energy; prices; global economy;
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had the knock-on effect of a sudden increase in oil prices on the world market and OPEC+ countries have not yet been willing to respond to increase supplies. In an effort to limit Russia’s budget revenues from the oil trade, Canada, the U.S. and, the United Kingdom have embargoed Russian crude. While the EU has not joined them, the effects of the rapid changes in the oil market, European consumers will see sharp increases in the prices of goods and services with the European economy potentially slipping into stagflation.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused Sweden to further tighten its relations with the U.S. and deepen cooperation with NATO. It is in tandem with Finland, with which it closely coordinates next steps to strengthen defence in the Nordic-Baltic region. In Sweden, however, the political debate on membership in the Alliance is less advanced.
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