Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; war; military situation;
Military operations in Ukraine continued in four directions - two in the south of the country, one in the east, and one in the north. In all these regions, especially in encircled cities, such as Mariupol and Kharkiv, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. Despite suffering significant losses, Russia still has the ability to support its fighting units, although it still has difficulties, especially with logistics.
The Bulgarian authorities - despite the strong pro-Russia sentiments of part of the society and some political groups - condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They also have accepted war refugees. However, given its energy dependence on Russia, Bulgaria is avoiding demands for a radical tightening of sanctions, especially on Russian gas and oil. At the same time, because of its traditional policy of balancing between Russia and Turkey, it is reluctant to strengthen NATO’s presence on its territory.
From the beginning of the invasion, Russia has been trying to deter Western countries from supporting Ukraine. It did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack, but has been signalling that further escalation might lead to it. This was met with a measured response from NATO nuclear-armed countries and has not prevented arms deliveries to Ukraine nor the imposition of sanctions on Russia. The fear of nuclear war with Russia, however, did influence the NATO decision to exclude direct involvement in the conflict and resistance of some allies to actions that, in their opinion, could be interpreted by Russia as joining the hostilities.
Despite the relative progress of its offensive in southern Ukraine, Russia is far from achieving the main political goal of regime change or capitulation of the government in Ukraine. Russia might now adapt its forces’ tactics and capabilities for siege and urban warfare in the main cities and capital of Ukraine. Elements of this adaptation might be a much bigger role for cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons, which are especially dangerous for both the defenders and civilians of Ukraine.
The approach of individual members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to the Russian aggression varies and is reflected in the indecisiveness of the entire organisation. In the context of ASEAN’s underlying principles, including sovereignty and territorial integrity, such a stance could damage its reputation as a defender of the rules-based international order. The conflict in Ukraine may also affect ASEAN countries, for example, through turbulence in the world economy.
Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine and the Threat to Cultural Heritage
Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; aggression; Ukraine; cultural heritage; threat;
The shelling and bombing of Ukrainian cities threaten the cultural heritage of Ukraine, including the most important sites inscribed on the UNESCO list. International law provides for the protection of cultural property, and the provisions of the relevant conventions are applicable during this war. Given the scale of the Russian attacks, the international community should join Ukraine’s efforts to preserve endangered assets.
Lithuania actively supports Ukraine in the political and military dimensions. It argues that the NATO partners should provide the besieged country with all available means. Moreover, it perceives the Russian aggression as a threat to its own security and that of the other Baltic States. That is why it is striving to strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank, which was the subject of talks on 7 March between the Lithuanian government and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Vilnius.
During his trip to Europe on 6-11 March, which included a visit to Warsaw, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tightened cooperation with NATO allies (Germany, Latvia, and the UK) on support for Ukraine. Following Russia’s attack, Trudeau announced subsequent shipments of military equipment for Ukraine, including lethal weapons. The goal of his trip also was to coordinate economic sanctions and humanitarian aid for refugees. Closer cooperation with Poland on issues of delivering humanitarian help and evacuating Ukrainian refugees from Poland and Central European countries to Canada will be crucial.
Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were cooperating closely militarily and politically. Although the Belarusian army has not taken part in the fighting, Russia is using Belarus as a base to conduct hostilities in Ukraine. Maintaining such cooperation with Russia will mean further political and economic losses for Belarus.
Ukrainian authorities have been appealing to the international community and NATO to introduce a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Ukraine. NATO is not willing to do that because of the risk of direct conflict with Russia and the threat of a nuclear escalation. However, the allies can support Ukraine in a way that seriously limits the effectiveness of Russian air attacks.
After the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the German government began work on diversifying supplies of energy resources and becoming independent from Russia, which will, however, be a long-term process. In the area of security, Germany is emphasising solidarity with its NATO allies and has announced a decision to significantly increase its defence spending. The war in Ukraine has politically strengthened Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who gained in public opinion polls after announcing a change in direction of German policy.
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; chemical weapons;
Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the alleged chemical weapons threat from Ukrainian paramilitary forces has been a significant element of Russian disinformation. These suggestions intensified with the lack of a military breakthrough and might be laying the groundwork for some use chemical weapons by Russia. The risk that Russia could do this has been indicated by U.S. administration officials, the president of Poland, and the head of NATO, among others. The next declarations of Western countries on this issue should be based on an agreed set of political and military consequences of any potential chemical attack by Russia.
Faced with Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Denmark declared its intention to fulfil its NATO commitment to allocate 2% of GDP to defence spending. Due to the deteriorating security situation in Europe, the country also wants to add an EU component to its defence policy based on NATO membership and partnership with the U.S. It intends to become involved in the Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy, in which it has not participated so far.
The Military Situation in Ukraine after Three Weeks of War
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; military situation; three weeks;
On 16 March, the third week of the war in Ukraine ended. Russian troops still have not broken through the main lines of the Ukrainian defences and captured Kyiv. For the Ukrainians to continue their staunch defence, supplies from Western countries in the form of weapons and humanitarian and economic aid are crucial.
Mariupol has been under siege since 4 March. The city is a key port for Ukraine on the Azov Sea. For Russia, occupation of the city has both military and symbolic significance. The duration and constriction of the blockade has led to a humanitarian disaster in Mariupol. A prolonged siege of the city may lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, bearing the hallmarks of a crime against humanity.
The special meeting of defence ministers on 16 March and the special summit of NATO leaders on 24 March indicate that the Alliance is accelerating work on strengthening its defence and deterrence. According to the NATO Secretary General, the Alliance must redefine its approach to deterrence in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Africa; Ukraine; war; repercussions;
In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Serbia; policy;
Serbia is the only country in Europe, excluding Belarus, that, apart from its support of the UN resolution, has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This position results from the political and economic ties to Russia as well as the sympathy of the Serbian society towards it, which is important a month before a general election. Most media in Serbia are dependent on the ruling parties and serve to maintain their power, and in general they repeat Russian propaganda.
On the ninth day of military operations in Ukraine, Russian troops continued to focus on four directions of attack, the most important of which, politically and militarily, is Kyiv. Russian forces face considerable resistance from the Ukrainian army and the society. In the coming days, it is excepted that humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from the encircled cities will be established.
The Russian military action against Ukraine initiated profound changes in Finnish foreign and security policy and in the society’s attitude towards Finland’s membership of NATO, which the majority of Finns now support.
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