Keywords: Ukraine; war; Arab States; foreign policy;
Most Arab states are trying to remain neutral towards the Russian aggression against Ukraine. While the U.S. remains a key partner for many of them, relations with Russia are an increasingly important element of the progressive diversification of their foreign policy. Growing Western pressure on them to distance themselves from Russia may result in a more intensive turn of these countries towards China, but such pressure remains necessary given their potential to, for example, replace energy imports from Russia.
Latin American Countries on Russia’s Attack on Ukraine
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latin America; Ukraine; Russia; attack; foreign policy;
Latin American governments differed in their assessment of the Russian authorities’ actions and decision to invade Ukraine. The regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela were the only ones to clearly support Russia, but at the UN, most countries of the region expressed their opposition to the Russian aggression. Apart from Colombia, the other countries have not yet declared whether they will join the sanctions against Russia. There are concerns in the region about the negative effects of the restrictions introduced by the EU members, the U.S., and other countries. The priority for most Latin American governments is the evacuation of their citizens from Ukraine.
The protests that erupted in the west of Kazakhstan in early January spread to the rest of the country and took on an anti-government character. The consequences of them include an escalation of violence by the Kazakh authorities and the potential for a further strengthening of authoritarian regimes in the region.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Australia; Japan; defence; agreement; military cooperation;
The governments of Japan and Australia have concluded an agreement on military cooperation. This is another element of the deepening military relations between the states that make up the QUAD and is intended to be a response to China’s strengthening military potential in the region. The agreement may speed up negotiations of similar agreements between Japan and European countries.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; NATO; Russia; foreign policy;
On 9-10 January, U.S. and Russian delegations met in Geneva, and the NATO-Russia Council met on 12 January in Brussels. The U.S. and NATO rejected Russia’s demands to grant it several “security guarantees”, including non-enlargement of the Alliance. At the same time, the U.S. and NATO offered dialogue on the basis of reciprocity with regards to arms control, military transparency, and prevention of military incidents. Russia, however, stated that it did not deem it possible to continue the talks because its main demands were rejected.
At the 13 January session of the OSCE Permanent Council, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Zbigniew Rau presented the priorities of the 2022 Polish Chairmanship, and also addressed current crises. Although the OSCE’s activity covers a wide range of issues, including human rights and economic cooperation, the most important challenge in 2022 will be using the organisation to de-escalate crises in Eastern Europe and to facilitate dialogue on European security. This requires the political will and commitment of all participating states, particularly Russia.
Keywords: Burkina Faso; Military Coup; Roch Kaboré; Arrest;
On 24 January, the Burkina Faso military arrested President Roch Kaboré and seized state power. The coup was the result of frustration within the armed forces over the inability of the authorities to effectively fight the jihadists. The coup will complicate the conditions of international engagement, including the EU’s, in the Sahel.
In the letter sent to a number of OSCE participating states, published on 1 February, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on them to clarify their position with regards to the fulfilment of OSCE obligations, in particular their interpretation of the principle of the indivisibility of security. This initiative is an element of the Russian efforts to revise the European security system, as well as an attempt to shift the responsibility for the ongoing crisis to NATO.
On 2 February, the Spanish daily El Pais published written responses to Russia’s draft treaties from December 2021, delivered by the U.S. and NATO to Russia on 26 January. The authenticity of the American document was confirmed by the spokesman for the U.S. Defense Department, while NATO officials have not questioned the credibility of the second document. Both responses confirm the rejection of the key Russian demands and specify the offer of dialogue. Progress in the talks remains dependent on Russia’s reciprocity and de-escalation with respect to Ukraine.
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; Czechia; Turów Mine; agreement;
The prime ministers of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, and Czechia, Petr Fiala, signed on 3 February in Prague an agreement on the Turów mine. The conclusion of the compromise ends a legal and environmental dispute that has strained bilateral relations. It was also the first meeting between the two heads of government since Fiala’s cabinet was sworn-in in December 2021.
Xi-Putin Meeting - China’s Open Support for Russia’s Policy Objectives
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; Russia; foreign policy; Xi Jinping; Vladimir Putin; security;
On 4 February, President Vladimir Putin paid a visit to China for the start of the Winter Olympics. Following the meeting with Xi Jinping, China and Russia issued a joint statement. For the first time, China has openly supported Russia in its security policy goals and has announced coordination with the Russian authorities. The Chinese support for Russia may have consequences for the security environment in Europe.
Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; cyberattack;
Ukrainian banks and government websites have become the target of a massive cyberattack, the source of which is believed to have been Russia. Further Russian cyberattacks are very likely, including on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. NATO countries are exposed to similar threats.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Invasion;
On 24 February at about 5 a.m., the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began shelling Ukrainian units in the east of the country and carried out rocket and bomb attacks on the airports in Borispol, Ozernoye, Kulbakin, Chuguev, Kramatorsk, and Chernobayevka, as well as on other military facilities throughout Ukraine. At the same time, artillery shelling of Ukrainian territory along the border with Russia and Belarus began. Airspace was closed to civilian aircraft.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, carried out with the support of Belarus, is a violation of the norms of international law that form the basis of the international order shaped after the Second World War. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justifications of the attack are legally questionable and contradictory to facts. There are also violations of humanitarian law being committed in the course of the hostilities, especially concerning the protection of civilians. The aim of the international community should be to stop the aggression and hold accountable states and individuals responsible for these violations.
EU Reaction to Russia’s Military Invasion of Ukraine
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Russia; military invasion; Ukraine; reaction; economy;
On 24-25 February, an extraordinary summit of the European Council (EUCO) took place in Brussels to discuss the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The EU has adopted strong economic sanctions that will reduce Russia’s financial reserves in the long term. However, they would be more effective if the EU decided to cut off Russian banks immediately from the SWIFT system, a global channel of encrypted communication between financial institutions. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.
At an extraordinary virtual summit on 25 February, NATO heads of state and government reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, which was attacked again by Russia this week. They also decided to further strengthen the Alliance military presence on NATO’s Eastern Flank. The summit was also attended by the leaders of Finland and Sweden, and representatives of EU institutions. Shortly before the summit, the presidents of the Bucharest Nine countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia) held a meeting in Warsaw.
Turkey has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, calling it a gross violation of international law and a serious threat to world security. It also called for an end to the hostilities and expressed support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Turkey also suggested it might close the Black Sea straits to ships of the Russian Navy, which would be a clear political sign of support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.
The Russian public is little aware of the scale of their country’s aggression against Ukraine. Only relatively small demonstrations and expressions of support for Ukraine by Russian citizens have taken place in the country. Russians have mostly supported the government’s recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed “republics” in Donbas and accuse NATO of causing the conflict. The support of the business and power elite for Putin depends on the victory of Russian troops in Ukraine.
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