Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English
Figures are incomplete on civilian casualties, but at least 136 civilians have been killed as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. At least hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes and evacuate to safer parts of the country or abroad. Ukrainian society has shown a high degree of mobilisation in the face of Russian aggression and is expressing its readiness to resist.
From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
Japan’s and South Korea’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Japan; South Korea; Russia; invasion; Ukraine; response; foreign policy;
Japan and South Korea condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine and joined the sanctions against Russia, which proves the effectiveness of the U.S. efforts in mobilising its allies. Japan’s stance stems from its predicted repercussions of the invasion for security in the Asia-Pacific region. South Korea’s position initially was more cautious due to concerns of possible economic costs and the deterioration of partnership relations with Russia, but allied solidarity prevailed. The war in Ukraine and the growing tensions between the great powers - the U.S., Russia, and China - may induce Japan and South Korea to expand their defence potential.
Czechia, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has acted quickly and multidimensionally. The Petr Fiala government sworn in this year was one of the first in the EU and NATO to provide military support to Ukraine and to close its airspace to Russian planes. The country’s sanctioning of Russia is favoured by, among others, broad political compromise on the issue - including the previously pro-Russia president, Miloš Zeman - the public perception of the war, as well as earlier changes in Czech eastern policy.
On 2 March, the EU published further financial restrictions against Russia adopted in the scope of a third package of sanctions, including those related to the SWIFT system. Despite ambitious declarations at the European Council on 24-25 February, EU sanctions in the banking sector are selective, and the most important EU action so far has been to freeze the reserves of the Central Bank of Russia. To increase the problems of the Russian banking sector, the EU should freeze the assets of all major banks in Russia and cut off its entire sector from SWIFT. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.
The Importance of Western Arms Supplies for Ukraine
Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; West; arms supplies; support;
On 27 February, the EU made the unprecedented decision to finance arms supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces. Until now, military aid (arms, ammunition, military equipment, and supplies) had only been provided to Ukraine by some EU countries (including Poland), as well as the U.S., UK, and Canada. Recently, most EU states have joined the effort, including Germany, which had restricted such aid. Western military aid, alongside sanctions, is key to influencing the course of the conflict. Russia will seek to limit it by, among other things, disinformation and hybrid actions.
India has adopted a neutral stance on Russia’s latest aggression on Ukraine, trying not to alienate any of its main partners, Russia or the U.S. This was well-received in Russia but undermines the foundations of India’s rapprochement with the U.S. and the EU. The top priority for the government of Narendra Modi has been the evacuation of about 20,000 Indian citizens, mostly students, from the war in Ukraine.
In response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, an emergency session of the United Nations(UN) General Assembly (UNGA) adopted, under the Uniting for Peace procedure, a resolution condemning this act of aggression. The UNGA called on Russia to cease hostilities and to withdraw unconditionally from the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine.
Romania unequivocally condemned the Russian invasion and is providing assistance to Ukrainian war refugees. It supported the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the European Union and has sent humanitarian aid and military equipment to Ukraine. Poland and Romania face similar challenges related to refugees from the war and share a perception of the threat of Russian aggression. Polish-Romanian intergovernmental consultations in Warsaw on 3 March provided an opportunity for better coordination of activities and positions.
Russia’s full-scale invasion has increased the risks for civilian nuclear infrastructure in Ukraine. Russian troops so far have captured the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant complex and Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Enerhodar. The intense use of artillery, rockets, and bombs may become a direct threat to various nuclear sector centres in Ukraine. However, the probability for contamination is low. Nevertheless, in case of such a scenario, its impact on Ukraine and its neighbours would be serious, and in an extreme case, catastrophic.
In the U.S.-EU summit held in Brussels on 15 June with the participation of U.S. President Joe Biden, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and President of the European Council Charles Michel, the parties managed to reach agreement on the dispute over subsidies for Airbus and Boeing, which has hampered relations for the last 17 years. The summit pointed toward a rebuilding of relations and strengthening U.S.-EU cooperation in the coming years.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on 16 June in Geneva. It was the final stop of the American president’s trip to Europe, but it did not bring a breakthrough in bilateral relations. Russia and the U.S. agreed to return ambassadors to their posts and to resume talks on strategic stability, especially arms control, and to start a dialogue on cybersecurity issues.
The presidential elections in Iran on 18 June were won by ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raisi, who has the clear support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The president-elect of Iran has declared disassociation from the policies of his “centrist” predecessor, Hassan Rowhani. Raisi’s previous career and worldview do not herald positive changes within Iran and its regional policy. However, it is likely that Iran will return - with the U.S. - to the original arrangements of the July 2015 nuclear deal from which President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Belarus; sanctions; civil society;
On 21 June, the EU adopted the fourth package of sanctions against representatives of the Belarusian regime and companies associated with it, and on 24 June, the European Council approved economic restrictions on Belarus. These are the most far-reaching measures taken so far by the EU and the most severe for the Belarusian regime. It can be expected that the retaliatory measures adopted by Alexander Lukashenka will be aimed primarily at Belarusian civil society and neighbouring countries such as Poland.
On 1 July, Hungary took over the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It will focus on the economic recovery after the pandemic. At the same time, its management of the group’s activities will serve to promote the country’s views in the discussion on the future of Europe.
Keywords: OPEC; Oil; Energy; Policy; Saudi Arabia; UAE;
The OPEC+ talks planned for 5 July regarding oil-extraction policy have been cancelled because of the SaudiEmirati dispute. The authorities of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have rejected a proposal to extend production limits until the end of 2022. This is another event in the escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which will increase the volatility of oil prices.
The Sixth Summit of the Three Seas Initiative in Sofia
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Sofia; Three Seas Initiative; Summit; Economy;
On 8-9 July, the sixth presidential summit of the Three Seas Initiative, accompanied by the third business forum, took place in Sofia. It confirmed the ambitions to expand and tighten cooperation, the challenges facing the TSI - primarily financial - as well as a declaration of support for the initiative by the new U.S. administration. The seventh TSI summit will be held next year in Riga.
President Sandu’s Party Wins the Elections in Moldova
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; President Sandu; elections;
On 11 July, early parliamentary elections in Moldova brought a decisive victory for the opposition pro-president Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). This would enable it to take over independent rule and start the announced European-oriented reforms.
On 15 July, the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) ruled in favour of Poland in a dispute over the legal status of the OPAL pipeline. The verdict means that Gazprom will not be allowed to use the full capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is connected to OPAL. The company will challenge this while also arguing that the completion and commissioning of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) is necessary for increased gas supplies to the EU.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Germany; energy; gas; policy; Nord Stream 2;
The U.S. and Germany have reached an agreement to end their dispute over the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. Their joint communiqué of 21 July suggests that the U.S. administration will abandon sanctions against NS2, which will facilitate its completion and commissioning. Germany pledges to take action to minimise the risks posed by the project, above all to Ukraine. The agreement rightly highlights Russia’s aggressive actions, but will not be able to address them. In the wider perspective, it will not deter Russia from continuing its aggressive policy.
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