On 25 July, Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and assumed full executive power. This is the most serious political crisis in the country since the outbreak of the Arab Spring. The president’s actions may interrupt the democratisation of Tunisia, which will require a reformulation of EU policy towards this country.
The July surge in infections of the Delta variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus in France prompted President Emmanuel Macron to announce new restrictions, which this time mainly affect unvaccinated people. Although the extension of the obligation to present a health pass when using services, included in the amendment to the health bill adopted on 25 July, has sparked protests, polls show that the majority of the public supports the new regulations. The priority of the French authorities is to avoid a new lockdown in the autumn as it would threaten the recovery of the economy and Macron’s re-election.
On 28 July in Geneva, U.S. and Russian delegations, led by deputy foreign ministers, held strategic stability talks, the first such meeting since October 2020 and since Joe Biden took office as president. Both sides assessed the meeting positively and stated they want to continue the dialogue, but they differ substantially on the priorities in future negotiations. The possible scope should be indicated by the topics of expert working groups, which are to be determined at the next session at the end of September.
On 15 August, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. After President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, current and former Afghan politicians formed a Transition Council and started negations with the Taliban on the formation of a new government.
On 15 August, after a lightning-fast military offensive, the Taliban entered Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. The decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan contributed to the Taliban’s rapid success. The Trump administration had negotiated an agreement with the insurgents, leading President Biden - contrary to the recommendations of military commanders to maintain some forces - decided to stick to the agreed timetable. However, the speed with which the Afghan government and security forces collapsed has undermined the prestige of the United States. The situation in Afghanistan will be used by politicians from the Republican Party in the campaigns ahead of the Congressional elections next fall.
Significance of the Immigrant Influx at the Border with Belarus to Regional Security
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; immigration; security; border;
EU and NATO countries bordering Belarus, in particular Lithuania, have been struggling for several weeks with an influx of irregular migrants, induced by the Belarusian authorities to try to cross the border into the EU. Moreover, the regime may try to use the situation in Afghanistan and refugees from that conflict to exacerbate the border crisis. This would worsen the already tense relations between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia on one side and Belarus on the other, and across the region.
On 13 August in Mexico, delegations from the government of Nicolás Maduro and Unified Platform of four main Venezuelan opposition parties, signed a memorandum on new talks. The success of this fifth attempt since 2014 to overcome the multidimensional crisis in Venezuela will depend in particular on government concessions, which will be influenced by the U.S. and the EU’s readiness to lift sanctions, among other factors.
The summit of the Crimea Platform, which aims for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of Crimea, was held in Kyiv on 23 August. It will not directly lead to the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula, nor to the imposition of new sanctions on Russia. However, Ukraine has managed to confirm the support of 46 states and international organisations for its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Ukraine; president; visit; foreign policy; Nord Stream 2;
On 31 July to 2 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States. During his stay, the U.S. announced support for Ukraine worth a total of $117.5 million. Contrary to Ukrainian hopes, the visit did not result in any breakthrough in the key areas for Ukraine of deeper cooperation with NATO or compensation for the completion of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).
Putin’s United Russia Party Named Winner of the Russian Parliamentary Elections
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; parliamentary elections; Vladimir Putin; authoritarian rule;
After three days of voting in parliamentary elections in Russia, the ruling United Russia was declared the winner on 19 September. The course of the campaigns, the manipulation of the voting, and a crackdown on opposition candidates testify to the intensification of authoritarian rule in Russia.
On 15 September, the leaders of Australia, UK, and the U.S. announced the creation of a trilateral security partnership - AUKUS. The deepening cooperation in this area between Australia and the U.S. will strengthen the network of American alliances in the Indo-Pacific crucial for counteracting China’s growing military potential. However, by keeping the AUKUS negotiations secret from EU allies and forcing France out of its contract to provide non-nuclear submarines to Australia, tensions in transatlantic relations have flared again, which undermines the prospects of coherent U.S. and EU policy towards the Indo-Pacific.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany won the Bundestag elections with 25.7% of the vote. However, it does not mean the Social Democrats will lead the government - CDU/CSU still can form a new coalition after it took 24.1%. Any coalition will most likely include the Greens (14.8%) and FDP (11.5%). With the participation of as many as three parties in the negotiations, Germany’s next government may not be formed until the turn of 2021 to 2022.
The new Franco-Greek defence agreement deepens the countries’ cooperation in the face of Turkey’s revisionist ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean. The ships ordered by Greece as part of the deal will strengthen that country’s defence capabilities but also help the French Naval Group in its reorganisation caused by the cancellation of the submarine contract by Australia. The agreement with Greece extends the French argument for the EU to strengthen its defence capacity alongside NATO.
Changes in the Austrian Government Following Accusations of Abuse of Power
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Austria; Alexander Schallenberg; government; Chancellor; Michael Linhart; foreign policy;
On 11 October, Alexander Schallenberg replaced Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria. The change was a consequence of the start of another investigation of Kurz for abuse of power. The new foreign minister, Michael Linhart, will continue the current foreign policy.
The results of the parliamentary elections in Iraq indicate that the political scene will remain fragmented, which will hamper the formation of a new government. In addition, the record low turnout (41%) and the lack of significant changes on the political scene compared to before the 2019 mass protests will weaken the legitimacy of the next government. Although the political grouping that relies most on anti-Western rhetoric achieved its best results in modern elections, Iraq will strive to maintain a neutral position in the face of U.S.- Iran rivalry.
The military takeover of Sudan led by Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan on 25 October will lead to blocking the process of reforms and the democratic transformation, deepening the economic crisis, and a period of social unrest. If civilian power is not restored, Sudan is threatened with a deterioration in relations with Western partners, which will benefit the Gulf states and Russia.
COP26, the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is being held in Glasgow until 12 November. The aim is to increase global ambitions in the area of climate change mitigation, adaptation to these changes, as well as financing the fight against climate change. World leaders and climate scientists consider this event to be the most important climate summit since COP21 in Paris in 2015. Expectations are extremely high, but the preparations for COP26 and course of the negotiations signal numerous challenges to be overcome by the negotiators.
G20 Rome Summit - Agreement on Vaccines and Taxes, Divisions on Climate
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: COVID-19; Climate; Vaccines; Taxes;
On 30-31 October in Rome, the leaders of major world economies met and made commitments on the global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and changes in the international tax system, and split on climate action.
The Japanese Government after Parliamentary Elections
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Japanese government; elections; parliament; foreign policy;
The 31 October elections to Japan’s House of Representatives brought another victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), run by new leader and prime minister Kishida Fumio. The new government will continue to strengthen the alliance with the U.S. and emphasise Japan’s cooperation within the QUAD group on the Indo-Pacific, while trying to maintain proper relations with China.
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Algeria; Morocco; Europe; Gas; export;
The president of Algeria has decided not to renew a contract for the transmission of gas through Morocco to Spain via the GME pipeline, effective this month. The decision is related to the Algerian-Moroccan dispute over the claim to Western Sahara. Morocco, which is almost entirely dependent on Algerian gas, will be the one most affected. It will also exacerbate the ongoing gas crisis in Europe.
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