The resignation of Prime Minister Igor Matovič and the swearing-in of Eduard Heger on 1 April ended the conflict in the government caused by the purchase of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. The coalition of four right-wing parties, ruling from March 2020, will remain in power: Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), and We Are Family and For People. It will adjust internal policy and will continue its foreign policy.
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; commission; council presidents; EC;
On 6 April, the presidents of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, and the European Council (EUCO), Charles Michel, met in Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The visit is a step towards establishing a new model of European-Turkish relations, based not on accession negotiations but on enhanced cooperation in the areas of the economy, political dialogue, people-to people contacts, and migration.
Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria - Anti-System Parties Succeed
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bulgaria; parliament; elections;
On 4 April, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s party, Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), won the parliamentary elections, but without coalition capacity. The newly elected anti-system factions also do not have a majority. If they maintain their opposition to cooperation with the parties of the current establishment, early elections are possible. The potential participation of new parties in the government would not cause a radical change in the directions of Bulgarian foreign policy.
Closing a Chapter - U.S. to Withdraw from Afghanistan
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Joe Biden; Afghanistan; withdrawal;
U.S. President Joe Biden announced on 14 April the complete withdrawal from Afghanistan of the remaining 3,500 American troops before 11 September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Simultaneously, NATO will end its mission, starting withdrawing forces even in April. This marks the end of the longest armed conflict in U.S. history, but increases the risk of an escalation of the Afghan civil war and the eventual seizure of power by the Taliban.
The Czech government on 17 April announced the expulsion of 18 Russian diplomats identified as spies. This is the outcome of an investigation by Czech intelligence that revealed Russia was involved in two explosions at munitions depots in Vrbětice in southern Czech Republic in 2014.
On 19 April, Chad’s President Idriss Déby died from wounds sustained in a clash between antigovernment rebels and the troops he was visiting. The military took power and named the president’s 37-year-old son as the new leader. The state is threatened with destabilisation, which would reduce the ability of the Sahel G5 forces to act against jihadist militants in the region.
Almost Coalition Partners - CDU/CSU’s and the Greens’ Candidates for Chancellor of Germany
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: CDU; CSU; Germany; Chancellor;
In September’s Bundestag elections, party leaders Armin Laschet and Annalena Baerbock will be the CDU/CSU and Greens candidates, respectively, for the position of German chancellor. Their nominations will be key factors determining whether the politicians’ internal party leadership will strengthen. The indication of Laschet and Baerbock also brings closer the prospect of creating a coalition of CDU/CSU and the Greens at the federal level.
Over the last several days, numerous Belarusian-Russian meetings at the highest level took place. The main topic of the talks was agreeing on the integration plans of both countries. The signing of a package of integration documents this autumn will seal Belarus’ limited sovereignty.
The Leaders Summit on Climate was organised by the U.S. President Joe Biden on 22-23 April. This virtual meeting was attended by the heads of 40 states (including the Pope), representatives of international organisations and business, experts, and activists. The choice of date was not accidental - 22 April was International Earth Day and the fifth anniversary of the signing of the Paris Agreement.
On 28 April, the Constitutional Court of Moldova lifted the state of emergency, declaring procedures were violated when introduced by parliament, dominated by the Russian-oriented Party of Socialists (PSRM) of former President Igor Dodon. The court’s action allowed President Maia Sandu to issue a decree dissolving the chamber and call early elections for 11 July. The results of the elections may radically change the balance of power in Moldovan politics and allow the establishment of a pro-Western government.
EU27-India Summit: Partnership Against Common Challenges
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; India; economic policy; EU27;
The first-ever meeting of the leadership of the EU and its Member States with the Indian prime minister, held on 8 May in virtual form, resulted in a decision to resume negotiations on economic agreements. The officials launched the Connectivity Partnership and announced enhanced cooperation in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; EU; European Army; Military Policy;
A day before the meeting of the Council of the EU on 6 May, the media revealed that 14 Member States proposed to establish a joint, European military force. This concept does not assume building a supranational European army, nonetheless it will add dynamics to the debate on the EU military level of ambition, and about the size and character of EU’s autonomous military capabilities in particular.
Labour’s Electoral Underperformance Opens the Way for a New Scottish Independence Campaign
Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK; Scotland; Wales; elections;
On 6 May, a series of council, mayoral, Scottish, and Welsh parliamentary elections took place, as well as the House of Commons by election in Hartlepool. Campaigning covered all constituent parts of Great Britain. The elections provided the first test of support for political forces after the outbreak of the pandemic and Brexit. The clear victory of the Conservatives in England and the nationalists in Scotland seems to confirm electoral shifts occurring since 2016 and the slim prospects for the return of Labour - until recently the largest party with strong footholds in all parts of Great Britain - to power within the next decade.
The rapid increase in violence between Israel and Hamas stems primarily from the unstable social situation in Jerusalem and the political calculations of the involved parties. Declarations by the two sides indicate that a high-degree of escalation will continue in the coming days. De-escalation depends on the nature of further attacks, the number of casualties, and the scale of tensions in the West Bank and Israel itself.
Prospects for U.S.-Russia Relations after the Meeting between Blinken and Lavrov
Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Russia; Blinken; Lavrov; foreign policy; Nord Stream 2;
On 19 May, on the sidelines of the Arctic Council ministerial in Reykjavik, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov met for the first time. During the talks, the U.S. administration announced a decision to waive the application of sanctions on certain entities involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
On 23 May, the Belarusian authorities forced a passenger plane registered in Poland to land in Minsk. The plan was in Belarusian airspace, but flying from Athens to Vilnius. Among the passengers was Raman Pratasevich, the co-founder of the opposition news portal Nexta, who was arrested after landing. In Belarus, he is accused of conducting terrorist activities, for which he may face the death penalty.
Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; visit; foreign policy; Andrzej Duda;
President Andrzej Duda is paying a state visit to Turkey (24-25 May), aiming to strengthen Polish-Turkish relations, especially in the area of security. It is also an attempt to persuade Turkey to play a greater role in the deterrence of Russia on NATO’s Eastern Flank.
On 28 May, the Biden administration presented a full U.S. budget request for fiscal year 2022, asking Congress for $715 billion for the Department of Defense (a nominal increase of 1.6% over the 2021 funding levels, although it would amount to a slight decrease in real terms once inflation is taken into account). The proposal emphasises strengthening deterrence of China and quality over the size of the armed forces, along with the development of new types of military capabilities.
The elections in Saxony-Anhalt resulted in success for the ruling CDU, which won 37.1% of the votes. The party managed to significantly improve on its 2016 result (by 7.3 percentage points) and increase its advantage over Alternative for Germany (AfD). Although the extreme right maintained the status of the second-strongest force in parliament, it was the first time they suffered losses in regional elections in eastern Germany. The result is also important for the Bundestag election campaigns because it signals to the Greens that winning votes in the east of Germany is still a challenge for them on their way to victory in the federal elections.
NATO Summit in Brussels - A Pivotal Moment for the Alliance
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Brussels; NATO; Summit; Alliance; Climate Change; USA; Joe Biden;
On 14 June, NATO leaders met at the first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. They agreed to start work on a new NATO strategic concept, which should be adopted in 2022, defining the Alliance’s priorities for the next decade. At the same time, they approved decisions to prepare NATO for the challenges related to a rising China, Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy, the development of emerging and disruptive technologies, and climate change.
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