The more-confrontational-than-expected tone of the European Council (EUCO) conclusions in respect of the negotiations on EU-UK relations after Brexit and the subsequent exchange of statements by both sides (15-18 October) resulted in the talks being stopped at their last stage. Despite the progress noted by negotiators in recent weeks, the scenario of a “no deal” on trade - risky for both sides - may come true because of the ongoing dispute over EU fishing rights in British waters.
The second round of parliamentary elections in Lithuania ended on 25 October. The country’s right wing won in single-member constituencies, which means that the conservative Homeland Union (TS-LKD) will return to power after eight years. Although the foreign policy priorities of this centre-right government will not change the direction substantially, the nuances will be important, determining, among others, the future of relations with Poland.
In September, the selection of a new secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began. It will end by 1 March 2021 at the latest, three months before the end of Mexican Angel Gurria’s third five-year term. The new secretary-general must face significant challenges such as the economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, adaption to climate change, and the development of modern technologies. The President of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid and Polish Minister of Climate and Environment Michał Kurtyka are among those who have submitted their candidacy for the post. The candidates will now seek the support of the Member States.
Zelenskyy’s Defeat - Results of Local Elections in Ukraine
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Zelenskyy; local elections; defeat;
The preliminary results of local elections held on 25 October in Ukraine show a defeat for the ruling Servant of the People party. This will increase tensions between the central government and regions whose powers have increased as a result of local government reform being implemented. It is also possible it will lead to the gradual disintegration of the ruling party in the Verkhovna Rada.
On 26 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed his call for NATO to reciprocate the Russian moratorium on the deployment of ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km in Europe. Russia declared the moratorium after the U.S. left the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019, citing years-long Russian violation. Although the proposal is presented as a way to minimise the consequences of the collapse of the INF and contains new elements, including an offer of mutual verification, it remains unfavourable to NATO. In practice, it would not ensure the absence of Russian ground-launched missiles with this range in Europe.
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons - From a Rallying Cry to Entry into Force
Author(s): Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English
Keywords: nuclear weapons; prohibition; treaty;
On 24 October, Honduras became the 50th country to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Thus, the treaty will enter into force on 22 January 2021. Poland and other NATO states have adopted a negative stance towards the treaty because they are concerned it may undermine the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture. The controversies surrounding the TPNW may hinder the functioning of the most important legal instrument in this area, the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Uncertainty as World Waits on U.S. Elections Results
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; elections; president; results;
Election Day in the U.S. is over but the ballot counting continues. The winner of the presidential election and official results may only be known in a few days. However, Donald Trump on election night declared himself the winner and said he would have lawyers arguing at the Supreme Court to suspend the counting of remaining votes to maintain his advantage in some states.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; nuclear power; power plant; energy; policy;
On 7 November, the first block of a new nuclear power plant was put into operation at Astravyets, Belarus. Although this will reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russian gas, from which most of the electricity is currently produced, energy dependence on Russia will increase even more. Belarus will have to buy Russian nuclear fuel and sell electricity to Russia. Some EU countries, prompted by Lithuania, have blocked the possibility of purchasing electricity produced in Belarus.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have concluded a truce ending the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, under the auspices of Russia. The agreement constitutes Armenia’s capitulation and provides for the division of the disputed territory on the terms of the victorious Azerbaijani side. This is a diplomatic success for Russia, which forced both sides of the conflict to stop fighting and accept the peace plan.
Protests and strikes against the rigging of results of the presidential elections in Belarus and the brutality of the police in suppressing the post-election demonstrations are still ongoing. The actions of the Belarusian government have resulted in a significant deterioration in the country’s relations with the EU and the U.S. In turn, Belarus will become more dependent on Russia, which may lead to the country’s progressive loss of independence.
Keywords: Coup d’état; Mali; Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta; arrest;
The unpopular president of Mali, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, was arrested by rebel soldiers and then resigned. The military promised a quick handover of power to civilians. The political crisis will hinder European military engagement in this key African country.
On 13 August, in a tripartite statement issued jointly with the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the normalisation of relations was announced. The decision suspends Israel’s plans to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank. It is also a significant political success for Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
On 10 August, Turkey sent the Oruç Reis research vessel into Mediterranean waters claimed by Greece as lying within its continental shelf. The ship is escorted by the Turkish navy, which prompted Greece to put its army on high alert. Turkey’s actions come as a response to a maritime delimitation deal between Greece and Egypt. The agreement also resulted in the collapse of talks between Greece and Turkey, sponsored by Germany and aimed at de-escalating relations between the states.
On 4 August, 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in the port warehouses in Beirut. Given the port’s crucial importance for Lebanese trade, the explosion, which destroyed port infrastructure and parts of the city, will deepen the economic crisis in Lebanon. This may affect the decision of foreign donors to pay some of the support measures for Lebanon declared in 2018 at the CEDRE conference.
Pentagon Outlines Concept for the Relocation of U.S. Troops from Germany
Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA: Germany; U.S. Troops; relocation; concept;
On 29 July, the U.S. defence department presented a concept for the reduction of the American military presence in Germany from around 36,000 to 24,000 troops. Almost half of the forces set to be withdrawn will be relocated within Europe and the rest returned to the U.S., while rotational deployments to Europe are to increase. The Pentagon has stated that these steps will bolster NATO and deterrence of Russia, although in fact they are largely the result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s June decision to punish Germany for insufficient defence spending, and the concept is intended to minimise the negative effects of that announcement. Implementation of the plans in their entirety is, however, uncertain, given the time needed to fully develop and implement them and the possible change of U.S. administration after the November presidential election.
European Council Adopts New Multiannual Budget and Recovery Fund
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: EC; European Council; Economy; Policy; Budget; Recovery Fund;
After more than 90 hours of negotiations, on 21 July the European Council reached a compromise on the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NG) recovery instrument.
Launch of the First Arab Interplanetary Mission - Hope
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: UAE; Interplanetary Mission; Hope;
On 20 July, the United Arab Emirates Space Agency sent a probe to Mars, an event that marked the first Arab interplanetary mission. UAE is now the Arab leader in space exploration. This role coincides with the country’s efforts to gain political domination in the region. The UAE’s investments in the space industry also indicate that it is part of its efforts to diversify the state’s sources of income and tighten cooperation with allies. The EU can use the European Space Agency (ESA) and its expertise to strengthen its position in relations with the UAE, which so far has been cooperating mainly with Asian partners.
The main topics of the recent EU-India summit were the pandemic, economic cooperation and tensions in the international system, such as the U.S.-China rivalry or the paralysis of the WTO. Although no breakthrough was achieved on a free trade agreement (FTA), the results of the meeting show that India is strengthening its position as a key strategic partner of the EU, sharing democratic values and supporting free trade and multilateralism. It can also be expected that the scope of cooperation will be extended, including in security issues.
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Macedonia; elections; parliament; 2020;
The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) won in parliamentary elections in North Macedonia on 13-15 July. Despite this, maintaining the current coalition is not obvious. The main tasks of the new government will be to alleviate the second wave of the coronavirus, revive the economy, and strengthen the rule of law for integration with the European Union.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: CAATSA; legislation; Nord Stream 2;
On 15 July, the U.S. State Department updated the public guidance for some parts of the 2017 CAATSA legislation. The move signals that the U.S. is ready to impose sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Significantly, this was Trump administration initiative, which so far has been reluctant to take strong measures against NS2. Almost certainly it will meet with greater effort by some EU countries to counter the U.S. sanctions.
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