European Council Breaks Stalemate over EU Multiannual Budget

European Council Breaks Stalemate over EU Multiannual Budget

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; multiannual budget; European Council; policy;

A compromise worked out at the European Council summit on 10 December regarding a conditionality mechanism (“money for rule of law”) opens the way for the final approval of the 2021–2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and the recovery fund. The financial package will provide means for economic reconstruction after the pandemic-induced crisis while enabling the Union to carry out its ambitious undertakings, such as the green transition.

U.S. Sanctions Turkey

U.S. Sanctions Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; Turkey; missiles; defence systems; sanctions;

The United States has imposed sanctions on Turkey for purchasing an S-400 air-and-missile defence system from Russia. It used the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). While the limited severity of the sanctions shows that the U.S. is still eager to seek a compromise on the S-400, they also reveal that the Americans consider the presence of the Russian system in Turkey as a breaking point in relations with its ally.

The End of the Beginning - EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

The End of the Beginning - EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

On 24 December, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the conclusion of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Full ratification is to take place in the first weeks of 2021, which will complete the British exit from the EU. The agreement sets the basis for the EU-UK future relations, including the negotiation of supplementary agreements.

Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement

Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; economic policy; investment; agreement;

On 30 December, the European Commission announced the conclusion of negotiations on a Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with China, which agreed, among others, to open up its market in certain sectors to European companies, although still with numerous restrictions. The entry into force of the agreement must receive consent from the European Parliament and others. The entire ratification process may take until 2022 and is not a foregone conclusion.

Probable Change of the Main Ruling Party in Montenegro after Three Decades

Probable Change of the Main Ruling Party in Montenegro after Three Decades

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Montenegro; elections; government; ruling party; change;

The ruling Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) on 30 August won the country’s parliamentary elections, ahead of the autumn constitutional date, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, after nearly 30 years in power, it is likely to lose it. The opposition won a majority in parliament and is determined to establish a new cabinet based on the demands to continue Montenegro’s international obligations and integrate it with the EU.

Consequences of the Poisoning of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny

Consequences of the Poisoning of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Alexei Navalny; poisoning; politics; consequences;

German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed on 2 September that the Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok. EU and NATO politicians have announced the introduction of sanctions. The Navalny poisoning will have a negative impact on Western countries’ relations with Russia, although it will not result in, for example, blocking the construction of Nord Stream 2.

In the Shadow of Post-Election Protests: Lukashenka’s Visit to Russia

In the Shadow of Post-Election Protests: Lukashenka’s Visit to Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Lukashenka; foreign policy; post-election protest;

On 14 September, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenka met in Sochi for the first time since the Belarusian presidential election (both had spoken on the phone several times before). The talks reportedly focused on the post-election political crisis in Belarus and other issues relating to bilateral relations. The course of the visit proves that the internal crisis and desire to maintain power has pushed Lukashenka to deepen integration with Russia.

Modest Progress after Special EU-China Leaders’ Meeting

Modest Progress after Special EU-China Leaders’ Meeting

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; foreign policy; leaders meeting;

On 14 September, three months after the EU-China summit, an additional virtual meeting of EU and PRC leaders took place. It was attended by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (due to the German presidency), and Xi Jinping, the PRC chairman. The EU has manifested a united stance on a sharper course towards China. Little progress has been signalled in the negotiations of an investment agreement, so the chances they will finish this year are not certain.

UAE, Bahrain Establish Diplomatic Relations with Israel

UAE, Bahrain Establish Diplomatic Relations with Israel

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: UAE; Bahrain; Israel; diplomacy; foreign policy;

On 15 September in Washington, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed agreements on the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. The ceremony exposed almost a decade-long cooperation between several Gulf States and Israel against Iran, and the marginalisation of the Palestinian cause.

A Reformist Push Despite the Crisis: State of the Union Address

A Reformist Push Despite the Crisis: State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EC; EU; Ursula von der Leyen; economic policy; COVID-19;

Despite the pandemic-provoked economic crisis, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen is not giving up on the main items of her strategy unveiled last year. In the State of the Union address on 16 September, she manifested her determination to use the economic recovery programme to speed up the green and digital transformations.

Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Partial success: Russia’s oil sector adapts to sanctions

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Oil sector; Western sanctions; Oil production; Russian exports of oil and petroleum;

More than six months after the European Union imposed sanctions on Russian exports of oil and petroleum products, Russia’s oil sector has adapted to the new reality. Having found new markets, the industry has managed to cut crude production by only 5% while avoiding a reduction in oil processing. Moreover, sales of oil and petroleum products have increased. However, the fact that drastic production cuts have been avoided represents only a partial success. Firstly, the current structure of Russian exports of oil and petroleum products is marked by instability and a heavy dependence on sales to two customers, India and China, which account for up to about 80% of Russia’s total sales. Secondly, following the EU and G7 countries’ introduction of a price cap on Russian oil, some exports have been discounted while the transport of crude has generated additional costs as a result of the sanctions. This allows Russia to sell more oil, but it also reduces its budget revenues. Thirdly, the Russian government has pushed through reforms to the taxation of this sector, but these have failed to increase budget revenues, and have also spurred further capital outflows from Russia and weakened incentives to investment. By choosing not to slash crude production, the government has seemingly given priority to keeping its level stable at the expense of budget revenues. Therefore, the reduction of these revenues shows that the West has achieved the objectives of its sanctions, while also avoiding disruptions to supplies on global oil markets. However this situation may change in the second half of 2023, when an anticipated global oil deficit and a subsequent increase in the price of oil are set to boost Russian revenues from sales of crude and fuels.

The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

The twilight of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian-Indian strategic partnership; Russian-Ukrainian war; Military-technical cooperation;

Less than a decade ago, both Russian and Indian analysts would have described the relations between Moscow and New Delhi as problem-free from a political perspective. No other power was as convenient a partner for Russia as India. The first cracks in the relationship between the two countries began to emerge in the mid-2010s as a result of China’s growing power (India is in conflict with China) and its increasingly assertive foreign policy. Other factors included the development of Russian-Chinese cooperation and the ongoing rapprochement between India and the US. At first glance, it may seem that the full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has served to further strengthen the relationship between Moscow and New Delhi. However, contrary to official rhetoric, the foundations of the Russian-Indian ‘specially privileged strategic partnership’ have been eroding, due to several factors, and this erosion is likely to continue.

How to postpone a demographic crisis. Estonia and the lifeline of immigration

How to postpone a demographic crisis. Estonia and the lifeline of immigration

Author(s): Bartosz Chmielewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Demographic crisis; Estonia; immigration; migration destinations; Estonia’s population growth;

Estonia is the only one of the three Baltic states to have recorded stable population growth in recent years. The main reason for this has been the increasingly positive rates of immigration and re-remigration, which have enabled Estonia to compensate for its negative birth rate. Despite Tallinn’s cautious migration policy, the continuation of these trends will postpone a future demographic crisis, and also enable the state and society to better prepare for population-related challenges in the future.

Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Controlled chaos: Russia’s Africa policy

Author(s): Miłosz Bartosiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia's impact in Africa; Russia’s economic weakness in Africa; Russia’s informal military presence;

The Russian Federation, despite its limited abilities, has significantly strengthened its influence in Africa over recent years through the skillful use of its economic tools and ‘controlled chaos’ –a set of aggressive actions designed to stoke existing conflicts with the aim of managing them later on. This policy has helped to destabilize the continent and exacerbate its tendencies towards authoritarian rule. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated Africa’s predicament by jeopardising its food security. Africa’s disillusionment with Russia is likely to increase in the near future for this reason. Russia’s limited offer for Africa, the uneven benefits of their mutual cooperation, the Kremlin’s paternalistic attitude towards its partners and the negative consequences of its activity for regional security will all help to erode its appeal. As a result, African countries will grow more assertive towards Russia and its options will narrow, which will make it more difficult for the Kremlin to expand and maintain its influence on the continent.

No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

No special status, no Armenians? The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan

Author(s): Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh issue; Azerbaijan; Armenia; Lachin corridor;

In recent weeks, the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting the Armenian-controlled portion of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, which has been in place since mid-December2022, has intensified, and its consequences are becoming increasingly painful: the parastate has been hit by a profound humanitarian crisis. Baku’s main goals are to dismantle the separatist Armenian structures and to fully integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into the Azerbaijani state. If this scenario came to pass, it would most likely prompt a major portion of the Karabakh Armenians to leave, which may effectively be an additional unrevealed goal for Baku. The exodus of this population could pose a serious threat to Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. Russian peacekeeping forces, which are responsible for maintaining the corridor’s passability, do not intend to start a conflict with Baku, and have maintained a passive attitude towards the blockade. It should be assumed that they would also not object to Azerbaijan taking over Nagorno-Karabakh, although they could attempt to slow down this process. Since the Second Karabakh War in autumn 2020, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been discussed in the peace talks. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognized the territorial integrity of both states within the borders of the respective former Soviet republics, which equates to them approving of Baku’s jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, under pressure from Armenians living in Armenia, in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan has raised the issue of the Karabakh Armenians’ rights in international forums (effectively demanding that the Lachin corridor should be unblocked). Thus far, the reaction of the international community has been limited to condemning the blockade.

New Pact on Migration and Asylum: Linking Asylum with Returns

New Pact on Migration and Asylum: Linking Asylum with Returns

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration; asylum; returns; policy; EU; EC:

On 23 September, the European Commission (EC) presented the long-awaited Pact on Migration and Asylum. Considering the mixed nature of migration to Europe, the Commission proposed a new solidarity mechanism. As an alternative to relocation, it allows Member States to pay for returns of people who do not have a right to asylum. The extraordinary mechanism, providing for the relocation of people who were not successfully returned, will most likely spur controversy.

Macron’s Visits to Lithuania and Latvia

Macron’s Visits to Lithuania and Latvia

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; Latvia; Emmanuel Macron; foreign policy;

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visits to Lithuania and Latvia (28-30 September) took place during the protests in Belarus, which followed the rigged presidential elections there, and in a time of tensions between the EU and Russia after an attempt to poison Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The visits served mainly to promote the French vision of the EU and its security initiatives, but also confirmed France’s commitment to pro-democratic changes in Belarus.

Polish Competition Watchdog Fines the Companies behind Nord Stream 2

Polish Competition Watchdog Fines the Companies behind Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Polish Competition; Nord Stream 2;

On 7 October, the president of the Polish competition watchdog, UOKiK, imposed a penalty of more than PLN 29 billion (€6.4 billion) on Gazprom and more than PLN 234 million (€52 million) in total on five European companies participating in the construction and financing of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. The reason cited is that the companies made agreements to finance and build NS2 without UOKiK approval as required by law. The watchdog also required the firms to terminate the financing agreements. The companies will most likely appeal the decision, and Gazprom together with Russian authorities (who control the company) will claim that UOKiK’s action is politically motivated. Despite such allegations, the penalty is the effect of non-transparent activities related to NS2, an issue that has been red-flagged by Poland for years.

The Three Seas Initiative Summit in Tallinn

The Three Seas Initiative Summit in Tallinn

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: TSI; Three Seas Initiative; Tallinn; Summit;

The fifth summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held on 19 October amid the ongoing pandemic and growing risk of a further economic slowdown. A remedy for the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe may include the Estonian Smart Connectivity concept. The implementation of projects in the region will be supported by the U.S. - which confirmed its participation in the Three Seas Fund - in proportion to the contribution of other members.

The Return of the Left to Power in Bolivia

The Return of the Left to Power in Bolivia

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bolivia; governance; government; left;

The left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS) will take power in Bolivia after a year’s break, based on preliminary results in the parliamentary and presidential elections held on 18 October. MAS is the party of ex-president Evo Morales, who remains in Argentina in asylum. Luis Alberto Arce will be the new president and his government will need to calm the tense internal situation down and tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU’s active support for the peaceful electoral process in Bolivia strengthens the Union’s position as a leading promoter of democracy in Latin America.