The consequence of the political crisis in Thuringia is Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s resignation as CDU president and from seeking the party’s nomination to be the chancellor candidate during the next elections to the Bundestag. Her decision increases the risk of the break-up of the government coalition. This threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Germany and weaken its position in the EU.
On 21 February, elections to the unicameral and 290-member parliament of Iran - the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majles) - were held. Despite the officially low turnout of 42.5%, the work of counting stations was extended by an additional six hours and the announcement of the election result was also delayed. The elections were manipulated at all stages of the process and boycotted by a large part of the public, which may be a sign of the further deepening of the internal crisis. Iranians are disappointed in the ineffectiveness of the political regime to resolve real problems in society and the abuses of the security apparatus.
The Taliban-U.S. Agreement - Still a Long Way to Peace
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Afghanistan; USA; Taliban; Agreement;
The agreement signed in Qatar on 29 February does not end the war in Afghanistan but facilitates the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. The deal weakens the official authorities in Kabul and strengthens the Taliban ahead of planned peace talks. It may, however, increase President Donald Trump’s re-election chances.
Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; government; change; economy;
On 4 March, the Ukrainian parliament accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and approved a new government led by Denys Shmyhal. The government reshuffle came in response to the deepening crisis of confidence in the Ukrainian authorities, partly because of the public’s overstated expectations of President Volodymyr Zelensky, especially for the rapid improvement of the economic situation.
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; Russia; Syria; Agreement;
During a meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, which took place on 5 March in Moscow, a ceasefire in Idlib was established. The agreement postpones the takeover of the entire province by the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad but it sanctions its territorial gains in Idlib’s south. In the following weeks, the situation in Idlib will remain unstable. Turkey, fearing the resumption of Assad’s offensive, will strengthen its efforts to get EU and NATO support for establishing a security zone in the north of Idlib.
The swearing-in to office of Igor Matovič on 21 March ends the many years of rule by Smer-Social Democracy (Smer). As a result of the last parliamentary elections in Europe (29 February) before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the new government was formed by four right-wing parties: Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), We Are Family, and For People.
In connection with the coronavirus pandemic, the Hungarian government intends to extend indefinitely regulations adopted under a “state of danger” declared on 11 March. The bill authorising it to do so would give the government unprecedented powers, including limiting constitutional freedoms. The vote on the bill is scheduled for 31 March. Adoption requires a two-thirds majority, which means that the ruling party can adopt it alone.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: PGNIG; Victory; Gazprom; Arbitration;
On 30 March, PGNiG reported it had won its arbitration case against Gazprom at the arbitral tribunal in Stockholm. The ruling concerns gas prices under a long-term supply contract. For PGNiG, this means a significant financial award, while on the political level it supports Poland’s arguments that Gazprom engages in anti-competitive practices.
The EU’s criticism of the Brazilian government’s climate policy and handling of the extensive Amazon fires has resulted in increased tensions in mutual relations. For the Union, for which combating climate change is a priority, Brazil’s ineffectiveness in protecting the Amazon may give it a reason to block the adoption of an agreement with Mercosur.
The Knesset elections held on 17 September did not reveal a clear winner, as none of the blocs formed around the largest parties - Likud and Blue and White - won a parliamentary majority. The parties’ readiness for compromise over the idea of a national unity government or internal splits may prove to be key in the formation of the future coalition.
Launch of an Impeachment Inquiry into U.S. President Donald Trump’s Actions
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Donald Trump; Impeachment; Inquiry;
The Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives have launched an impeachment inquiry regarding President Trump. The decision by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is related to a complaint by a “whistleblower” from the Trump administration who was concerned by a conversation the American president had with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in which Trump was alleged to have pressured Zelensky to investigate the son of former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who is running for president in 2020. The Democrats are convinced that these actions were aimed at discrediting Biden and reducing his chances of getting his party’s nomination or forcing him to end his presidential bid.
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; local elections; 2019; Fidesz;
Local elections held on 13 October in Hungary were won mostly by the ruling party Fidesz. At the same time, the results represent the greatest success for the opposition parties since 2010.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Receives Nobel Peace Prize
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ethiopia; Prime Minister; Nobel Peace Prize; Abiy Ahmed;
On 11 October, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced its 100th Peace Prize has been awarded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. He was honoured for his efforts to make peace on the Horn of Africa, particularly for his country’s ground-breaking reconciliation with neighbouring Eritrea. The pace, however, of both the political liberalisation of Ethiopia and the implementation of the agreement with Eritrea have slowed.
On 13 October, the second round of presidential elections was held in Tunisia. It was preceded by parliamentary elections on 6 October. Kais Said, an independent conservative lawyer, was elected president. The democratisation of the state is endangered by political fragmentation and the erosion of cross-party compromise.
Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; Human Rights Council; HRC; membership;
On 17 October, Poland was elected by the UN General Assembly as a member of the Human Rights Council (HRC) for the term 2020–2022, receiving 124 votes in support (out of 193 possible). Poland’s election and the high support indicates a positive assessment of Poland’s term, now ending, as a non-permanent member of the Security Council (UNSC).
Uyghur Dissident Ilham Tohti Awarded Sakharov Prize
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ilham Tohti; Sakharov Prize;
This year, the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought was awarded by the European Parliament to Uyghur dissident Ilham Tohti. The award symbolises objections to the increased repression of Uyghurs - a Turkic ethnic minority, many of whom are Muslim - in China. It also represents support for Ilham’s concept of peaceful coexistence with native Chinese. The prize is unlikely to change Chinese policy on the Uyghurs but shows that human rights will remain an important part of the EU’s policy towards China.
On 30 October, President Sebastián Piñera announced Chile’s withdrawal from hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) in November and the COP25 climate summit in December. This decision results from his government’s failure to tackle the internal crisis caused by violent social protests. Chile’s withdrawal will cause delay in global climate negotiations and in the anticipated trade deal between the U.S. and China. It also means Poland will continue its presidency of COP24.
The 8 November judgment by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the first one in a series of proceedings before major international tribunals initiated since 2014 by Ukraine against Russia. The proceedings are related to the Russian authorities’ support of illegal armed groups in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; Grand Coalition; Collapse;
On 14 November, the Moldovan parliament voted in the new cabinet of Ion Chicu, who is directed behind the scenes by President Igor Dodon, affiliated with the Socialists. It comes after the collapse of Maia Sandu’s government, led by the pro-European ACUM bloc, just two days earlier. The transition of the bloc to the opposition and takeover of power by an informal alliance of the Socialists and Democrats may result in delays or avoidance of pro-European reforms in Moldova.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; parliament; elections;
On 17 November, the elections to the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament in Belarus, ended. The Central Election Commission of Belarus (CEC) said that the turnout exceeded 77%. No opposition representative was approved, which means that the president will retain full control over the political system in Belarus. The first sitting of the new parliament - its seventh term - will take place on 6 December.
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