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2023 Ukraine: Is the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war in sight?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; predictions; 2023;

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. A year after the start of the war, the mystery surrounding its course is more intense than ever. In the first six months of the war Russia had the initiative, and the key questions were when, where and what kind of success it would achieve in attacks on the 2,500 kilometer long frontline. In the next five months, Ukraine took the initiative, and analysts tried to predict the location and possibilities of future counterattacks. It is difficult to predict what might happen and who will advance. Both sides are preparing for new attacks and face increasing losses on the battlefield, while expecting new reinforcements in weapons and manpower.

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Putin’s War in the Context of World Meetings

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; Putin; world meetings; diplomacy;

The period October-November was busy with world meetings none of which have or only peripherally involved Russia because of their malign intent on Ukraine. A distinct change from reporting about the Ukrainian conflict was the football World Cup, the 4- yearly event now being hosted by Qatar, an occasion which was previously hosted by Russia in 2018, and where Putin was frequently visible. The fact that he had annexed Crimea 4 years before had been ‘forgotten’ about and he took all the praise for a successful event. However, Russia has not been qualified for the current Middle East held event. They will be sorely missed! The Qatari event is taking a significant amount of airtime, not just about football, but that is another story.

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2023 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Who undermines fragile peace in BiH?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: BiH; 2023; peace; undermining; politics;

The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is becoming increasingly complicated, not just because of the intensification of the armed conflict in Ukraine, but also because of the process of establishment of the government after the general elections in October 2022. At the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina the government was established by the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), Croatian Democratic Union BiH (HDZBiH) and the parties of the so-called “Trojka” (Social-Democratic Party -SDP, People and Justice -NiP and Our Party -NS). The government of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has still not been established on the basis of the election results from 2018 because of the blockades by the HDZBiH. The imposing of specific articles of the Election Law[2] and the enactment of amendments[3] to the Constitution of the Federation of BiH in the election night by High Representative Christian Schmidt (CSU/EPP), which are directly related to the Federation of BiH, have further complicated and rendered the relations in BiH even more complex.

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Montenegro 2023: Deciding between the past and the future

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Montenegro; 2023; presidential elections;

On 19 March 2023, presidential election will be held in Montenegro for the eighth time since the introduction of the multi-party system in this country and for the fourth time since its independence was proclaimed in 2006. 542,154 voters will be eligible to give a vote. The president of Montenegro is elected in a single national-wide constituency based on the two-round system. The candidates may not have dual citizenship and residence in another country. Seven candidates will run in the presidential election: ● Milo Đukanović – candidate of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ● Jakov Milatović – candidate of the Europe Now Movement (PES) ● Andrija Mandić – candidate of For the Future of Montenegro coalition: Democratic Front (New Serb Democracy – Movement for Changes –Democratic People's Party – Workers' Party) – True Montenegro – Free Montenegro ● Jovan Radulović – independent candidate ● Goran Danilović – candidate of the United Montenegro ● Aleksa Bečić – candidate of the Democratic Montenegro ● Draginja Vuksanović Stanković – candidate of the Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP).

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Global south engagement for peace in Ukraine

Author(s): Matthias E. Leitner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global South; Ukraine; war; peace;

Precarious Conflict Trajectory - Russia and Ukraine are preparing for a spring offensive with higher levels of military involvement. Spill-over into the region has been avoided so far, despite several drone attacks on Russian bases in occupied Crimea and in western Russia as well as the bombing of Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea with Russia’s Taman peninsula in October 2022, one day after President Putin’s 70th birthday. It is not excluded that intensifying conflict or a costly prolonged stalemate can lead to escalation and actively involve NATO or one of the front-line states with Ukraine.

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2023 Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria: Between Brussels (Berlin) and Moscow

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bulgaria; 2023; parliamentary elections; Brussels; Berlin; Moscow;

In the Republic of Bulgaria early parliamentary elections will be held on 2 April 2023. At the elections 240 representatives/deputies of the Bulgarian National Assembly will be elected according to the proportional closed-list system. There is a total of 31 electoral constituencies from which, depending on the size of the constituency from 4 to 16 representatives/deputies will be elected. The election threshold is 4%. These are the fifth elections in the past two years, as it was not possible to establish a government on the basis of the results of the previous elections.

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Montenegro 2023 presidential election: Entering the post-Đukanović era

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Montenegro; 2023; presidential elections; post-Đukonović era;

In Montenegro, the runoff presidential election will be held on 2 April 2023. In the first round held on 19 March 2023 the most votes were won by Milo Đukanović (11,9673 votes or 35.37%) and Jakov Milatović (97,858 votes or 28.92%). The turnout was 64.06% (341,551). The president is elected for a five-year term of office. 61-year old Milo Đukanović, a graduate in economics, is the candidate of the Democratic Party of Socialists. He is running for president for the third term, while he has already served five terms as the Prime Minister of Montenegro. He is the leader of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).

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2022 presidential electionin Slovenia : In anticipation of a new momentum in Slovenian political arena

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovenia; presidential elections; 2022; politics;

With parliamentary, local and presidential elections all being held this year in Slovenia, 2022 has been dubbed “super election year”. Presidential election campaign is taking place in the atmosphere of Robert Golob's Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda) convincing victory in the April parliamentary elections and the ensuing tectonic changes in Slovenian political arena. After parliamentary elections the new Slovenian coalition government was appointed, led by Prime Minister Robert Golob and comprising the Freedom Movement (GS), the Social Democrats (SD) and the Left (Levica).

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2022 Slovenian Presidential elections: Parting with Orban’s “values”?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Slovenia; presidential elections; Orban; politics; 2022;

In the second round of elections for the President of the Republic of Slovenia, scheduled to take place on 13 November 2022, Slovenia will elects its fifth democratically elected president since its declaration of independence in 1991. The president is elected for a three year term. Anže Logar (Dr. Romana Logar –group of voters) and Nataša Pirc Musar (Biserka Marolt Meden –group of voters) qualified for the second round of elections. In the first round Logar won 296,000 (33.95%) votes and Pirc Musar 234,361 (26.88%). The turnout was lower than at the recent parliamentary elections, as 876,687 (51.74%) voters participated in the elections.

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2022 Western Balkans: Between Berlin Process and Open Balkan

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; 2022; Berlin; EU; foreign policy;

The summit of the European Union (EU) and Western Balkans states will be organized on 6 December 2022 in Tirana. The summit is being organized within the framework of strategic cooperation of the EU with the Western Balkans and will be the first summit since the Russian invasion on Ukraine. Namely, the first informal EU 27 summit and meetings within the framework of the European Political Community were organized in Prague on 6 October 2022. The European Political Community brings together all countries of the European continent that share common democratic values. The summit was attended by 44 leaders from European countries, except Russia and Belarus.

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Putin’s War, world meetings, etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; world meetings; foreign policy;

The last period has been busy with world meetings none of which have or only peripherally involved Russia because of their malign intent on Ukraine. A distinct change from reporting about the Ukrainian conflict is the football World Cup, the 4- yearly event now being hosted by Qatar, an occasion which was previously hosted by Russia in 2018, and where Putin was frequently visible. The fact that he had annexed Crimea 4 years before had been ‘forgotten’ about and he took all the praise for a successful event. However, Russia has not qualified for the current Middle East held event. They will be sorely missed! The Qatari event is taking a significant amount of airtime, not just about football, but that is another story.

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2022 EU- Western Balkans: End of era of “courtship” of the West

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Western Balkans; 2022; West; foreign policy;

The European Union (EU) - Western Balkans Countries summit[2]was organized on 6 December in Tirana. It was an opportunity to discuss joint resolution of the issues that emerged as a consequence of the Russian invasion on Ukraine, intensification of the political dialogue and the enlargement policy, as well as strengthening of the security and building resilience to foreign interference, resolution of challenges posed by migration, fight against terrorism and organized crime. The summit was organized two months after the informal summit of member countries of the European Political Community in Prague, at which all European countries except for Russia and Belarus participated.

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Ukrainian Crisis – View from Tunisia

Author(s): Ali Goutali / Language(s): English

Keywords: Tunisia; Ukraine; crisis; Russia; conflict; policy;

In view of the dangerous escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the alarming turn for the worse it took as well as the hysterical war mongering campaign that accompanies it, I deemed it useful to bring some clarifications and personal views concerning this conflict – in addition to the frequent writings on the topic on the pages of the IFIMES International Institute. I served for several years as Ambassador of Tunisia to both Russia and Ukraine. Hence, I hold in high esteem the peoples of either of the two. That is why, my point of view is meant to be objective and I am inclined to call earnestly for a rapid diplomatic settlement of this conflict with far-reaching and immeasurable consequences, if it is not quickly contained.

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2023 to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye: Will Türkiye Organize Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Republic anniversary; 100 years; elections;

Turkish officials, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, assure the public that there will be no early elections and that the elections will be organized as planned in June 2023. Furthermore, the Turkish Minister of Justice Bekir Bozdağ stated on 19 August 2022 that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held as envisaged by the Turkish Constitution, that is on 18 June 2023. In Türkiye, there are suspicions that Erdoğan could surprise the opposition and call early general and presidential elections.

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Putin’s War – 5; etc.

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; 2022; foreign policy;

The war in Ukraine, Putin’s war, is now over 100 days old and reaching a point of stalemate. One day the Russians have made small gains in the Donbas, the eastern border lands of Ukraine, and in the next day or so we hear that they have been stopped and pushed back. In the meantime, the promised more powerful armaments, with a bigger range, from Britain, the US and from some European countries, are coming on stream, albeit late and slowly, and these may, should push the Russians back. One hopes so that it is more than just talk. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister is not at all pleased at this development of the west’s support for what maybe in a short time a member of the EU, and warns of an escalation of activities. Perhaps that is a risk Ukraine has to take in order to take back the lands lost.

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Putin’s War and beyond

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; 2022; situation;

The war in Ukraine goes painfully on. After 4 months, the Russians show slow gains and have taken much of the Donbas, E Ukraine. In fact, if we count Crimea and the land along the south coast as well, Russia has grabbed almost 20% of Ukraine land, and most of it the most valuable, including where the wheat is grown. The south coast, which involves Mariupol, is vital as the sea outlet to the country and it is being blockaded by the Russians. In the past few days, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, S Africa) have been meeting in China, hosted by Xi Jinping. The BRICS countries, total 40% of the world population and 20% of the world’s GDP, so they are a formidable bloc and forecast to become bigger and stronger. Currently, China and India are absorbing much of the oil and gas embargoed by the western powers so Russia is partially getting round that important component of the total block on trade. Perhaps that is why Vladimir Putin, along with his gains in the Donbas region, feels emboldened and having discussions with the Belorussian president, Alexander Lukashenko.

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2022 Open Balkan: The future belongs to the peoples of the Balkans

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2022; Open Balkan; Western Balkans; EU;

The European Union’s treats Western Balkans states as a wicked stepmother. While this has not significantly changed even after the Russian invasion on Ukraine, it did triggered a fundamental debate on whether the EU wants at all to admit the remaining six Western Balkan countries (Serbia, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo) to full-fledged membership. If the EU would have an intent to admit the listed countries to its membership, the question to be asked is how it could do that. Namely, 19 years have passed since the adoption of the Thessaloniki agenda for the Western Balkans, which envisaged membership of the Western Balkan countries in the EU. Other than the promises about European perspective of the respective countries, nothing concrete has happened with respect to their membership in the EU.

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Albania 2022: “House of Freedom” vs. Drug-cartel

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: Albania; 2022; Drug-cartel; house of freedom; politics; elections;

Although the European and global public is currently focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, majority of political parties in the Republic of Albania are focused on the partial local elections scheduled to take place on 6 March 2022. In Albania, local elections were held on 30 June 2019. The opposition boycotted the local elections. As a result, after the local elections candidates of Edi Rama's Socialist Party (SP) occupied all the positions at the local government level. The councilors elected at the illegal local elections, which were not announced by the President of the Republic of Albania Ilir Meta, in the entire state did not include representatives of the opposition. The Democratic Party (PD) boycotted the elections without well-founded reasons, although it would have been logical that it had participated in the elections and then offered justifiable reasons to boycott the work of municipal councils.

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Ukraine 2022: A Test for the EU and NATO

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; NATO; Ukraine; 2022; security; test;

The aggression of Russia on the Ukraine is an event that will mark the future of Europe as well as the global international order. A week after the beginning of the aggression on the Ukraine by Putin’s regime, some of the aspects and characteristics of this military expedition are very obvious and noticeable, along with their international dimensions, reactions and parallels from history. The most important is the fact that a military operation, a war, is going on, what is without comparison in the modern European history after the end of the Cold War. The aggression and the consequent war present a ruthless, brutal and consciousness breach and neglect of a range of international legal, humanitarian and other rules that regulate relations between sovereign and independent states in international relations. Hence, the aggression is a military act, a precedence that has to be stopped and brought to a standstill, the international mediation and negotiation should be introduced, peace agreement has to be concluded and the responsible persons have to be brought to justice, processed for military crimes they did. European and world political, diplomatic, legal and military history have many tools at disposal for these actions. Here, also lessons learned from the recent past from the dissolution of former Yugoslavia, are highly useful for processing war criminals, as the International Court of Justice in the Hague can serve.

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Putin’s War - 2

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Vladimir Putin; war; conflict; politics;

The past ten days has seen an intensification of the war in Ukraine, with over 1½ million Ukrainians having fled their homes and crossed the border to sanctuary in neighbouring countries of Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin says it is not a war or invasion, but just a cleansing of a corrupt, neo-Nazi government of drug addicts, and if any Russian dissent they are liable to be punished and some of those caught are being jailed with unwarranted stiff sentences. Several thousand Russian citizens have joined with those of other countries to protest and risked their being arrested. Who is Putin kidding? He is a rat in a tight corner and just as or more dangerous. Who is going to stop his nonsense? The western countries? His own people?

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