The EU should live up what it stands for: We might be all Hong Kong tomorrow
Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Hong Kong; repression; security; foreign policy;
On 26 June 1963, the then-President of the United States John F. Kennedy delivered his famous “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech, underlining the support of the Free World for West Berlin and West Germany. 47 years later, the Special Procedure 50 of the UN Human Rights Council has issued a statement denouncing Beijing’s repression of Tibet and Hong Kong. The statement came just before the National Security Law in Hong Kong was approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
2020 Eastern Mediterranean: New episode of political tensions
Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Mediterranean; 2020; political tensions; NATO; security;
The Eastern Mediterranean region is currently experiencing a new cycle of tensions between Turkey and Greece, which belong to the same system and are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO. While the dispute revolves around natural resources, such as natural gas, it essentially boils down to flaring up of old historical enmities rooted in the agreement that established the current borders of the Republic of Turkey after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Namely, the Turkish government wishes to rectify that historic (in)justice. As historical memory still leaves a trace on the presence, the current tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, between Turkey and Greece, are not related just to the natural resources discovered over the past few years, but have roots in historical disputes dating back almost an entire century.
“Americans performed three very different policies on the People’s Republic: From a total negation (and the Mao-time mutual annihilation assurances), to Nixon’s sudden cohabitation. Finally, a Copernican-turn: the US spotted no real ideological differences between them and the post-Deng China. This signaled a ‘new opening’: West imagined China’s coastal areas as its own industrial suburbia. Soon after, both countries easily agreed on interdependence (in this marriage of convenience): Americans pleased their corporate (machine and tech) sector and unrestrained its greed, while Chinese in return offered a cheap labor, no environmental considerations and submissiveness in imitation.
The oil-dependent member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are currently facing numerous challenges in the aftermath of two simultaneous global crises that have hit the global regional economies: the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and the plunging of oil prices to a record low. The two crises and the measures taken to control the novel corona virus epidemic have slowed down the economy in GCC states which are heavily dependent on exports of oil and imports of almost all goods from technical products to food. Border closures and travel bans have contributed to the reduction of productivity, rising of unemployment and shrinking of GDP. Due to their oil dependency government revenues have recently decreased by almost 500 million dollars per day with the oil prices remaining between $20 and $30 per barrel.
The UAE’s Growing Role in Central Asia: Geopolitical Inroads to Challenge Turkey and Iran
Author(s): Kristian Alexander,Giorgio Cafiero / Language(s): English
Keywords: Central Asia; UAE; Turkey; Iran; growing role; geopolitics;
Since the Soviet Union imploded in 1991 and the Central Asian republics gained their independence, a host of countries have competed for geopolitical influence in this resource-wealthy region. Along with Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, the US, and a number of EU member states, the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been actively working to strengthen their clout in this region, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) taking the lead.
The global crisis caused by the Covid-19 crisis has shown that the strongest countries were the most vulnerable and not ready to respond to the proliferation of the deadly virus. Despite the disastrous consequences of the pandemic on the economies of the United States, Great Britain, France, Canada, Italy, as well as other major countries, adequate response models that could possibly turn around the current situation regarding the depressed economies but also the normal social life, have still not been devised.
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the economic, social, political and structural weaknesses of the European Union. It has resulted not only in human tragedy, but also in political conflict, loss of trust, uncertainty in the future on the part of citizens dealing with lackluster MS and European responses and, ultimately, in an economic crisis whose severity, length and secondary impacts are yet unknown. The likelihood of kneejerk policy reactions in the direction of restricted travel, protectionism and “beggar thy neighbor” policies should concern the leadership of the European Union. The answer to these issues is to begin laying a foundation for a more resilient European Union when it comes to public health crises, one in which good policy mixes with operational capability and strategic communication to ensure both the predictability and the efficacy of responses to future outbreaks. This will require not only the efforts of individual nations and cooperation between them, but also the coordinating capacity of the European Union. This white paper argues that the existing European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection is one of the most important building blocks for future safety from pandemics. It offers, in its European and national iterations (where health is already present in the critical infrastructure taxonomy), a conceptual toolbox for understanding the systemic impact of crises such as the pandemic, including beyond the sphere of health, and the means for planning, organizing and implementing measures to increase the resilience of European societies to such crises.
Restoring Trust in Global Governance (World on Autopilot – Addendum)
Author(s): Tan Sri Hasmy Agam,Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English
Keywords: global governance; health; policy; COVID-19; WHO;
Further to the points of view undersigned authors expressed nearly two months ago (see: World on Autopilot: The UN Security Council should urgently address Covid19, link: https://www.ifimes.org/en/9791), it is to a deep regret that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) still misses to adopt the much-needed Council Resolution to address the Covid-19 (C-19) pandemic event. This is largely due to the tensions between two of its five permanent members (P5) - the US and China, with Washington wanting to apportion blame or responsibility to China relating to the pandemic, and Beijing rejecting any discussion or reference to it. Additionally, the two keep opposite views on the role and conduct of the UN Specialised Agency for health matters, Geneva-based World Health organisation (WHO).
Covid-19 and the way to return to normal: role of OIC (Muslim World and its Rapid Reaction Capacitation in times of new type/s of asymmetric challenges)
Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević,Ali Goutali / Language(s): English
Keywords: COVID-19; crisis; muslim world; OIC;
All throughout its history, our world witnessed either abrupt, radical changes or gradual shifts and adjustments of the World Oder. Such recalibrations usually followed major crises, be it devastating wars or geopolitical transformations such as the end of Cold War. Past the agricultural and industrial revolutions, numerous advances in knowledge, science and technology, as well as ground-breaking inventions opened up new avenues for progress and prosperity of mankind. Subsequent scientific and technological revolution of our age, coupled with the relaxation of ideological confrontation and longing for cooperation and integration, led to the emergence of a politically and economically globalized World. However, our current World Order of fully interconnected planet has revealed some weaknesses and vulnerabilities, particularly in time of crises.
Keywords: Bulgaria; Macedonia; identity; political history; nationalism;
Bulgarian historiography is decisive that before 1944 there was no Macedonian national feeling and that 99% of the Orthodox population on the territory of geographical Macedonia felt like Bulgarian. Given that Bulgaria has much more state experience than Macedonia and given that I highly value their science, I would like to believe in this. But every time I follow this logic, I come across the fact that my great-grandmother was called Makedonka or Donka, and she was born and baptized around 1910. So, the question arises: if there were no Macedonians and a sense of belonging, why would some of my great-grandparents baptize their daughter- Makedonka in the period of Turkish slavery?
Keywords: EU; common values; identity; politics; migrations;
Similar to provisions of the German Constitution, Article 1 of the Lisbon Treaty defines common values on the basis of which the European Union perceives itself as united. However, in the face of the current and further deepening of economic misbalances since 2008, the migration trends intertwined with crises in its areas and now the coronavirus pandemic, this quote seems, more than ever before, like a document from ancient times. The European Union is at a crossroads and all its members, particularly Germany, now have to decide: should we finally act in line with the defined values or burry together with them the dream of a united continent that is more than just a sum of a number of national states?
China held the Presidency of the United Nations Security Council in March this year: COVID19 was deemed not to be a security issue. By the end of March, confirmed deaths with the virus had grown past 40,000 globally and the U.N.’s Secretary General, António Guterres, stated that the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 were a multiplier of instability, unrest and conflict 2 in an attempt to engage the Security Council. The Presidency of the Security Council passed to the Dominican Republic this month and the Caribbean country has the opportunity to spur the Security Council into action.
What the world can learn from Italy about Covid-19 virus?
Author(s): Dejan Azeski / Language(s): English
Keywords: COVID-19; Italy; policy; lessons;
The Apennine Peninsula is geographically far from the Balkans, but basically judging by the mentality they are very similar to us. That is why intense socializing in small closed places (such as most of the Italian cafes and pubs) and in times of imminent danger of the virus contributed to its spread too quickly. Italians as well as Balkans did not pay too much attention to appeals from the authorities not to go to bars every day after work - and thankfully during work. The local police have a fine and cultural problem with imposing restrictive measures and their authority. So, quarantine, although it has long been announced in practice, is difficult to apply. And that's why we got to this massive scale disaster.
World on Autopilot: The UN Security Council should urgently address Covid-19
Author(s): Tan Sri Hasmy Agam,Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English
Keywords: UN; Security Council; COVID-19; WHO;
The Covid-19 situation is very worrying, indeed, alarming matter, not just as a global health and biosafety issue, but potentially as a global security challenge, too. While the pandemic is being dealt with by the World Health Organisation (WHO), along with other relevant United Nation Specialised Agencies (UN SA), the situation is deteriorating rapidly and could easily get out of control. This of course, if it is not effectively contained.
Global epidemic caused by the coronavirus will inform major changes in international relations, and even internal political relations in majority of countries in the world. Some analysts have started to speak about recession and collapse of economies of numerous countries and organizations, such as the European Union (EU), Organization of Economic Cooperation and development (OECD), Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), etc., and the significant rise of China and, to a smaller extent, some other countries as well. All of a sudden political event disappeared from the media titles and primetime news. Political analysts and analyses have become second to mass appearances of doctors and medical experts in the print and electronic media. Naturally, this is understandable if we take into account the information that so far 1.5 billion or one fifth of the global population has been in self-isolation. Furthermore, for the first time we see groundbreaking changes in the medical industry.
It’s just a virus. It is regarded by many as a weapon. If we look closer it’s not far from the truth. A library could be easily filled with the last two-months writings on this strange virus. If we were leaving aside preconceptions and would not be afraid of the inept allegation that we are promoting the conspiration theory then we would more than likely reach the conclusion that similar to a weapon of mass destruction, the saga of Covid-19 has an undeniable geopolitical overtone.
Natural Disasters as Detonators of Sociopolitical Change: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2014-2020
Author(s): Nedžad Korajlić,Amer Smailbegović / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bosnia-Herzegovina; Pandemic; Crisis communication; Civil Defense; Yugoslavian General National Defense and Communal Self-Protection Concept; Western Balkans cooperation;
The report ifs briefly summarizing the potential of natural disaster to initiate a required social and political change in a divided society, when other methods of integration and resolution have proven ineffective. By comparing the Balkan floods of 2014 with the current COVID-19 pandemic, it is possible to observe certain changes in the posture of the former-Yugoslavian countries and their collaboration by using the last vestiges of once-robust civil-defense (and general national defense / protection) of the former Yugoslavia. The current response is adequate, but the lengthy period of stagnation, decentralization and unresolved issues stemming from the Yugoslav conflict have left considerable present-day challenges. Similarly there were missed opportunities for improving collaboration and crisis management in the aftermath of the 2014 flooding event. The current crisis presents new management opportunities to overcome the problems and evolve the legacy solutions in the time of crisis. The reader is cautioned that this is an evolving situation, and some of the events described within, are bound to change rapidly, hence this communiqué should be considered as a snapshot in time during the pandemic-response in the Western Balkans in the second half of March, 2020.
In December 2019, a new disease caught the attention of the media and the public around the world. Scientists quickly discovered that the cause of the disease is the Corona virus, which emerged for the first time in the city of Wuhan, China and for which there is currently no appropriate medical response. Since then, simultaneously with the massive media reports on proliferation of the virus to other parts of the world, the public fear has been growing. On 11 February 2020, the virus got its scientific name - Covid-19. Virus Covid-19 evolved into a major disaster for the world, citizens and global economy all over the world. In the case of China, the delayed announcement of the virus, due to the assurances by Chinese officials that they can restrain proliferation of the virus, has led to an outbreak and proliferation of the virus outside of China, as a result of what the epidemic in China evolved into a global pandemic.
Author(s): Itai Brun,Yael Gat / Language(s): English
Keywords: Israel; National Security; Corona crisis; COVID-19;
A seminar at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on political and security implications of the corona crisis underscored the prevalent uncertainty regarding the situation, but also highlighted several instructive points. The biggest threat to the global (and Israeli) economy derives from the slowdown or negative growth in the United States, and at the current stage, the American ability to meet the crisis effectively is not clear. As for Israel, the risks of escalation in the northern arena and the Gaza Strip have decreased in the short term, but toughening the restrictions on the border crossings with the Palestinian Authority could lead to its economic collapse. The combination in Israel of a political crisis, the budget deficit, multiple security challenges, and the coronavirus outbreak is highly problematic, and a continuation of the crisis beyond the next two-three months could mean negative annual growth. The IDF could be called on for extensive assistance to the civilian front for a long period, yet while needing to maintain its fitness and readiness.
Thoughts of Romania’s Foreign Policy on the Background of the European Foreign Policy
Author(s): Corneliu Pivariu / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; foreign policy; European policy; geopolitics; security; economy;
In the last decade the strategic, political, economic, military, energy and technological balances were strongly affected by global challenges, strategic, political, juridical and technological disruptions each one impacting on one or several fields. Human society is in a evolutionary crisis which the main international traditional players are not able yet to manage properly and each one of them seeks to position itself as profitable as possible in anticipation of a new world order in a globalized world. The developments are fast and often momentous, and as one of the attendees noted – important geopolitical events that occurred in the last two months are equaling the ones that took place in the last decade.
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