Projektowanie scenariusza duńskiego oraz norweskiego wojskowego zaangażowania w Afryce
Scenario Design of Danish and Norwegian Military Engagement in Africa

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the article is to develop and propose effective scenario-building methods regarding the scale and nature of Danish and Norwegian military involvement in selected regions of Africa (Western Africa, Sahel, Horn of Africa) over the next 3–4 years. The adopted time frames result from the planning cycles of defence and security strategy of the analysed Nordic states. The subject of analyses will be the security support provided by Denmark and Norway for selected African countries (Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria) through two forms of using the armed forces. Participation of Danish and Norwegian military contingents in crisis management and peace support activities – as first. Secondly, direct military assistance addressed to selected countries in order to establish national and regional security systems and rebuild defence capabilities will be reviewed. This study will aim to develop an optimal forecasting methodology of future Danish and Norwegian influence on chosen African countries through the use of military instruments over a specified time horizon. The construction of optimal methods for scenario design requires knowledge about the doctrine of international involvement of the armed forces, action strategies, procedures for the selection of forces, and military assets designated to achieve the assumed goals. The appropriate scenarios methodology shall include aspects of both states' future foreign military policy in selected regions of Africa. The following are the scale of involvement, the instruments of influence, strategic and tactical goals, the military means, institutional levels of cooperation, direct benefits from protecting both Nordic states' vital interests in a given region.

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