ОСНОВНИ ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ ОТ БИЗНЕС НАБЛЮДЕНИЯТА И РЕАЛНИЯ РАСТЕЖ НА ИКОНОМИКАТА
KEY INDICATORS FROM BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS AND REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

Summary/Abstract: The paper aims to find correlations between the consumer confidence indicator, the total business climate indicator and real GDP growth by quarters. Based on the analysis, it aims to draw conclusions on the possibility of using business and consumer surveys as a source of early warning of economic crises. The Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent effects that led to an economic crisis have raised questions about the need to investigate economic indicators that can serve as early warning indicators of crises. Despite the availability of sophisticated macroeconomic forecasting models as well as early warning systems for crises, the role of available indicators from business and consumer surveys and direct assessment by consumers and managers becomes important in view of the rapidity of accumulated information. The analysis concludes that there is a strong correlation between quarterly data on real economic growth and direct assessments of consumers and managers of firms. Causal links between the two indicators and the real annual GDP growth by quarters are demonstrated and can serve as an early signal of the presence of systemic problems and the need for subsequent implementation of specific economic measures and policies.

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