Двуфакторна зависимост между доверието на потребителите и бизнес климата с реалния растеж НАБВП в България
Two-Factor Relationship between Consumer Confidence and Business Climate with Real GDP Growth in Bulgaria

Author(s): Lachezar Borisov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: GDP; business climate; consumer confidence; early warning systems
Summary/Abstract: The report demonstrates a two-factor relationship between the consumer confidence indicator and the total business climate indicator on the one hand, and real GDP growth by quarter on the other hand, over the past three years. The analysis aims to build on conclusions already drawn by the author on the possibility of using key indicators from business surveys as early warning indicators for economic crises and therefore for rapid decision-making. The economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic has acutely raised the need for indicators that provide timely signals of impending fluctuations in economic growth dynamics. Managers' direct assessments of the business climate indicator, and the population's assessments of the consumer confidence indicator, have largely the same dynamics as seasonally-adjusted real GDP growth data on a quarter-on-quarter basis over the previous period. The existence of a direct bivariate relationship between the two indicators from the business surveys and the economic growth also determines the fact that they can serve as a signal of the direction of economic development in the short term. This, in turn, also allows for rapid decision-making on specific economic policies.

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