BALCANII DE VEST – O MIZĂ GEOPOLITICĂ MAJORĂ ÎN CONFLICTUL HIBRID DINTRE F.RUSĂ ŞI OCCIDENT
WESTERN BALKANS – A MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL OBJECTIVE IN THE RUSSIA-WEST HYBRID CONFLICT

Summary/Abstract: The European continent is on the verge of a new war. The nature of this potential intense confrontation will be determined by two key factors: (1) the level of risks Kremlin is willing to take in order to reinstate Russia as a major player in international arena; (2) the success of hybrid warfare developed in the recent years by Russian intelligence infrastructure on the European continent. The actual geopolitical context is the result of a Russian middle term strategy based on mathematical science - geometry and mind game - chess. In order to understand what geometry has to do with Russian strategic planning, it is enough to connect three points on the map of Europe: Berlin, Kiev and Belgrade. The triangle resulted it shows very explicit a) the area of major interest for Moscow and b) why Kiev is next on the Russian “shopping list”. Regarding the last item, the acquisition can be made “manu militari”, political or/ and economical. Of course, the first hypothesis should and hopefully it will be the last option, because Moscow has other access in its pockets. On the other hand, it is the moment to realize the tricks (hybrid actions) Russia has played on the European chessboard with European Union and U.S.A. in the last years: a) the energy game with Berlin in order to get inside Europe and b) the history and religious game with Belgrade in order to reach Western Balkans. Both games were developed in the last two decades, because what Moscow has learned is the fact that the spiral of history it will provide the opportunity to counterstrike the strategies Western powers imposed in the east side of the European continent. Currently, Russia relies most on Western Balkans to leverage the negotiations with Euro-Atlantic actors, because the area seems better anchored in the geopolitical infrastructure that supports Moscow projects. EU and NATO have to acknowledge that they share part of the responsibility for this context. It was the lack of strategic interest of both actors to develop a predictable and tailored road map for the Balkan states that provided Russia with time and means to consolidate its presence in the Balkans. And now Russia put the Balkans on the geopolitical chessboard along with Crimea, Donbas and probably another part of Ukrainian territory.

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