Modelowanie trendów w prognozowaniu środowiska bezpieczeństwa
Trends Modeling in the Security Environment Forecasting

Summary/Abstract: This article is devoted to the issue of identifying and “modeling” possible trends in security. In addition, it raises the subject of the so-called “strategic shock,” also known as a black swan or a wild card, and its impact on security. Events such as the collapse of the Lehman Brothers bank, which started the financial crisis in 2008, the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, which started in February 2022, have highlighted the importance of the security environment analyzes being developed and the assessments of the forecasts being made. Properly conducted prognostic research in its spectrum of possible events should take into account both negative and desirable events, specifying their probability and potential consequences. The article aims to start a discussion on forecasting the security environment, the research methods used for this purpose, their effectiveness, and the consequences of subjective analyzes of security assessment. It should be noted that key decisions made by decision-makers based on incorrectly prepared forecasts, both in the short, medium, and long term, can have disastrous consequences. The current security environment is characterized by enormous dynamics and turbulence of phenomena, and more forecasts developed should take into account the possibility of these changes. The article presents an extension of the conditional trend analysis method based on the conducted research.

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