Demografické projekce aneb jak se liší výsledky z pohledu použití deterministických a stochastických modelů
Demographic projections; how the results differ from the viewpoint of using deterministic and stochastic models

Summary/Abstract: Information about the potential future development of age-and-sex specific structure of the population is very important for the central and regional administration. On the basis of this projections the regional authorities can anticipate future needs in non-industrial sectors and public services such as education, health and social policy. Prospective estimates of trends in the number and structure of the population have also their demographic importance, especially show the prospective population consequences of the current development. In practice, the forecasting methodology is based on common mathematical extrapolation methods or methods of demographic population projections. Individual results depend on the procedure for calculation. Population structure and all derived characteristics are strongly determined by the applied scenario and by model, which was used for extrapolation of future age and-sex-specific demographic structure. Future scenarios for individual demographic processes (especially mortality, fertility and migration) may have an optimistic or pessimistic character, which can pose many potential versions of population structures in the final synthesis. In this study, we will focus on the changes in the age structure of the population in terms of biological and economical generations. For illustration is used Sauvy aging index and the index of economic dependency for different versions of calculated population projections. The aim of this paper is to point out the possible ways of calculating population projections and also on the fact that the results are dependent on what model and what method of calculation is chosen. Results may be significantly different.

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